HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:22 am

Date : 14th March 2023.

Market Update – Markets brace ahead of Inflation!

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The fallout from the failure of SVB and Signature Bank has been far and wide, rattling global markets. Much of the focus now is on upcoming central bank actions and whether policymakers will be hesitant to add to market volatility with additional rate hikes.

Wall Street was all over the board and finished mixed. Equities opened on the backfoot after steep declines overnight and amid losses of -2% in European bourses. Stocks slumped in Asia. Major US regional bank stocks suffered their largest decline in three years, FRC -61.83%, Credit Suisse fell by 15% (withdrew $120 billion in the three months to Dec. 31).

With the creation of the new “BTFP” to backstop the financial system, Treasuries garnered a very strong flight to safety bid, and especially at the front end of the curve. The markets also repriced Fed rate hike expectations, taking out the prospects for further aggressive action, and pricing in rate cuts later in the year. US Dollar was generally weaker through the session.

Image

Investors bet against the 2-year Treasury en masse, expecting its yield to continue climbing. That was the worst three-day rout since the days after Black Monday in 1987 eventhough it was not maintained.

*USDIndex fell to 103.48 with losses against its G10 peers. Today slightly higher.
*Yields – The 2-year had its biggest slide since 2008, to a low of 3.935%. It closed at 3.984%, the lowest since mid-September and is 113 bps richer just from Wednesday’s 5.07% peak, which was the highest since 2007. The 10-year closed at 3.568%.
*VIX climbed to 28.35 before retracing to 24.47.
*Euro settled slightly below 1.07, Sterling held gains at 1.2160 (no impact from tight labor data). Yen picked up a strong haven bid to 133.00.
*Stocks – US100 posted a +0.45% gain, US500 -0.15% lower, US30 closed in red -0.28%.

Image
Image

*USOil – held losses ahead of key inflation data as the biggest US bank collapse since 2008 continued to ripple through financial markets. It is at $74 rising 0.65%.
*Gold – surges lower after 5% rally to $1914. Currently at $1909.
Cryptocurrencies – BTC surges by 12% spiking to $24,815.
*Ether also climbed 6% to $1,693.

Today: US CPI report could give the FOMC the chance to remain sidelined, or at least decide on a 25 bp hike versus the 50 bps that was firmly priced in last Wednesday.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX (+6.94%). Spiked to 28.55 before settling below PP at 24.47.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Mar 15, 2023 5:42 am

Date : 15th March 2023.

Market Update – March 15 – Can the bounce back hold?

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD tested into 20-day lows again as Stock markets recovered (NASDAQ +2.14%) from 3 big down days following the SVB shock. US CPI cooled to 6% from 6.4% (as expected), however the CORE figure for February actually rose and demonstrates the “stickiness” of Services inflation in particular. Fed Funds Futures see an 81.2% chance of a 25bp hike next week from the FED. Overnight: The BOJ Mins. confirmed commitment to super easy policy noting a rising inflation picture, Chinese Unemployment surprisingly increased to 5.6% as Retail Sales recovered strongly to 3.5% from –1.8%.

*FX – USDIndex has dipped again to test the 103.00 zone today, last Wednesday it was at 105.85. EUR holds over 1.0700 and has breached 1.0750 today. JPY holds over 134.00 but remains capped by 135.00 today. Sterling ahead of the UK Budget today holds at 1.2150 after testing 1.2200 highs on Monday & Tuesday.
*Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+1.06% to +2.14%) as tech companies recovered and Banks bounced. Movers: FRC +27%, SCHW +9.19%, META +7.25%, (another 10k job losses) TSLA +5.03%. BANCORP -3.43%, AMC -5.20%. US500 +1.68% (+29.96) to recover 3900 to close at 3920, US500 FUTS higher at 3925 now.

Image

*Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some –4% yesterday, posting new 2023 & 2022 lows at $70.72. It has since recovered +1.35% to recent support levels at $72.20, which could now act as resistance. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, up some $90 an ounce from tests of $1809 last week.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC breached both $25 & $26K yesterday to test a 9-mth high at $26.3k. Currently it trades below $25k at $24.8k.

Today: EZ Industrial Production, US NY Fed, PPI & Retail Sales, UK Spring Budget, IEA OMR, NZ GDP.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.59%). Continued the rally today from Monday’s low under 141.500 back to test 145.00 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.53, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.222, Daily ATR 1.377.

Image

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Mar 16, 2023 5:21 am

Date : 16th March 2023.

Market Update – March 16 – all Eyes on Zurich…and Frankfurt.

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Concerns over Credit Suisse added to the fallout from the collapse of SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate. And though there have been problems at the big Swiss bank for years, fears of a global contagion exacerbated investor jitters. The Bank was down -30% at one point – closed -14%. The Swiss authorities will offer a loan of $54bn to try to prevent collapse and the stock is +35% pre-market. A risk off mood has raced around the World and holds for now.

USD, CHF, JPY & Gold had safe haven bids and the short end of the yield curve collapsed with the 2-yr falling the fastest in decades. Stock markets recovered from 2023 lows into close after heavy losses on open (NASDAQ +0.05%). Asian markets lower (-0.80% to -2.12%), US PPI & Retail Sales both undershot expectations, and the UK Budget focused on pensions and childcare as millions of workers continued to strike. Overnight: Japanese Machine Orders and the Trade Balance were both much better than expected and in Australia Unemployment dropped to 3.5% as jobs soared to 65K from a decline of 11k last month. NZD GDP missed at -0.6% q/q vs. -0.2% and 2.2% y/y vs. 3.3%.

*FX – USDIndex rallied over 150 pts to 104.70 yesterday and has eased to 104.20 now. EUR tanked from over 1.0750 to under 1.0520 before recovering 1.0600 today. JPY holds over 133.00 now but ranged from 135.00 to 132.40 yesterday. Sterling tanked from 1.2150 to test the key 1.2000 yesterday and trades at 1.2070 now.
*Stocks – The US markets opened 1-2% lower but recovered into close (-0.87% to +0.05%) Movers: SCHW +5.06%, XOM -4.97%, CVX -4.33%. US500 -0.70% (-27.36) to 3892, US500 FUTS +0.95% higher at 3930 now.

Image

*Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some -6% again yesterday, following a -4% fall on Tuesday to touch $65.70 lows last touched December 2021. It has since recovered to $67.80. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, at $1920 down from yesterday’s 6-week $1935 high.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC dipped to $24k from $25K yesterday and trades at $24.5k now.

Today: US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Export/Import Prices, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). Continued the rally today from yesterday’s low under 0.6600 back to test 0.6660 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 59.56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00154, Daily ATR 0.00782.

Image

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Mar 17, 2023 11:58 am

Date : 17th March 2023.

Market Update – March 17 – Another day another bank bailout.

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A private ($30 bln) “rescue” of First Republic Bank by a consortium of 11 big banks helped ease concerns over a full blown financial crisis. Their efforts were rewarded yesterday, as risk appetite improved and investors returned to Wall Street, lifting the major indexes sharply. USA100 jump 2.48% and is up 7.95% from Monday’s nadir, the US500 advance 1.76%, and the USA30 was 1.17% firmer. A risk off mood that raced around the world this week has cooled. Asian markets are firmer too (Hang Seng leads at +1.44%) and European FUTS are also in positive territory.

USD & Treasuries have cooled as yields recover. The 2-year jumped 27 bp to 4.155% and the 10-year was up 12 bp to 3.569%, back over the 4.00% and 3.5% levels, respectively. The curve bear flattened to -59 bp from -44 bp on Wednesday and versus -108 bp a week ago.

ECB delivered a 50 bp rate hike, and stuck to its guns, despite the turmoil in financial markets this week. The guidance on future moves was not surprisingly dropped though and the ECB stressed that future decisions will be data dependent. Ms. Lagarde’s Press Conference emphasised the data dependency approach.

US Data & Overnight: US Weekly Claims fell again (192k vs. 212k) and the Housing Data was also better than expected. Japanese Tertiary Industrial Activity rose significantly too (0.95 vs -0.4% last month).

*FX – USDIndex has dipped to test 103.50 today from 104.70 highs on Wednesday. EUR tanked to 1.0550 lows as the ECB announcement was digested, before rallying to 1.0660 now. The 1.0600-1.0700 range remains key. JPY spiked below 132.00, rallied to 133.75 and is back to 133.00 now. Sterling rallied over 1.2100 yesterday and trades at 1.2160 now.
*Stocks – The US markets rallied (+1.17% to +2.48%) Movers: SCHW -2.80%, FRC rallied +10% (but lost –17% after hours). Tech giants gained over 4% MSFT, AMZN & GOOG . US500 +1.67% (+68) to 3960, US500 FUTS higher too 4000 now.

Image

*Commodities – USOil – Futures tested the 15-mth low at $65.70 again yesterday before recovering to $69.00. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, at $1930 down from yesterday’s 6-week $1935 high.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC has again rallied over $25K & $26k to $26.5k now.

Today: EZ HICP (Final), US Industrial Production, Leading Index Change, Univ. of Michigan (Prelim.) and Quad Witching.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.95%). Continued the rally today from yesterday’s low under 0.6150 back to test 0.6250 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.00, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.00128, Daily ATR 0.00766.

Image

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:39 am

Date : 20th March 2023.

Market Update – March 20 – CS sends shockwaves through the market!

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

UBS to buy Credit Suisse in a more than $3 bln share deal, pushed into the biggest banking deal in years! The Swiss government will provide more than $9 billion to backstop some losses that UBS may incur by taking over Credit Suisse, while $17.3 billion of the so-called additional tier 1 bonds will be completely written down. Last Thursday, CS also took a $54 billion lifeline from the Swiss National Bank.

Credit Suisse’s takeover by UBS marks the end of the bank’s 167 years as an independent institution.

Global central banks announce enhanced USD liquidity arrangement. The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the ECB, the BoE, the Bank of Japan and the SNB on Sunday announced, “coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity, via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line arrangements”. The frequency of the 7-day maturity operations will be enhanced from weekly to daily as of March 20 until at least through the end of April “to support smooth functioning of US dollar funding-markets”.

*Insignificant Exposure in China: The Swiss bank’s Hong Kong branch has assets equivalent to around $12.7 billion, less than 0.5% of the overall banking system.
*Bancorp’s Flagstar Bank will take on nearly all of Signature Bridge Bank’s deposits.
*In 2019, the Fed issued a warning to SVB over its risk-management systems.
*Stocks – Stock markets are selling off! USA100 down to 12580, the US500 dipped to 3912, and the USA30 at 31,760. Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.4%, the Hang Seng is down -3.1% and European and US futures are also sharply lower.

Image

*FX – USDIndex is at 103.40 today. EUR slightly down to 1.0636, but holds the upchannel since last Wednesday! JPY spiked below 131.00, retested S1 at 130.70. Sterling steady around 1.2190.
*Commodities – USOil – dragged down with stocks, at $64.70 low.
*Gold – up 2% today, breaching 3 year high territory at $2009 level.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC in a rally to $28,262 since Asia open, up more than 3%.Today: EZ HICP (Final), US Industrial Production, Leading Index Change, Univ. of Michigan (Prelim.) and Quad Witching.

Today - ECB Lagarde speech, Import & Exports from New Zealand.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GOLD (+0.95%). Breached $2009! MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 78 OB & rising, H1 ATR 10.05, Daily ATR 31.41.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Mar 21, 2023 5:16 am

Date : 21st March 2023.

Market Update – March 21 – Sentiment Stabilised?

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk appetite improved to kick off spring. Though banking jitters are still an undercurrent, the various rescue measures, including UBS’s takeover of Credit Suisse over the weekend, helped ease global tensions. Trading in Japan is closed for a public holiday. European and US Stocks are extending gains for now, as US Dollar steadied at 103.

Confirmation from European officials that equities will take losses before risky bonds, which helped AT1 bond markets in Asia to recover. Speculation that the US could temporarily agree to guarantee all bank deposits if the financial crisis expands also helped!

*RBA comments showed that the bank will consider a pause in the tightening cycle at the next meeting.
*ECB: ECB’s de Cos won’t validate bets of 3.25% peak deposit rate. In the light of recent financial market jitters and after cautious comments on the situation from Lagarde markets have lowered expectations for the peak deposit rate to 3.25%, which would be just one additional 25 bp hike. ECB’s Kasaks suggested more rate hikes underway, if things stabilise.
*FX – USDIndex is slightly higher at 103.10 today. EUR slightly lower to 1.0712 but still in an upchannel. JPY above PP at 131.72. Sterling holds gains above 1.2250. AUD extended losses to 0.6675.

Image

*Stocks – USA100 advanced 0.39%, the US500 up 0.89%, amid broadbased gains, and the USA30 rallied 1.2%. ASX moved up 0.8%, while Hang Seng and CSI300 gained 0.9 so far. Amazon fell 1.8% after announcement for another 9,000 layoffs (so far 9% of its workforce). Google (-0.52%) suspends China’s Pinduoduo app due to malware issues. NYCB (+30%) surge after Signature deal. Pimco & Invesco face losses as the 2 biggest AT1 Bond holders of Credit Suisse.
*First Republic Bank posted further declines on top of the -80% plunge the prior two weeks, following a second downgrade from S&P.
*Commodities – USOil – continues to struggle but recoved from $64 lows to $67.24 now.
Gold – has been a major beneficiary from the fallout, though it is a bit lower today, down -0.9% to $1971, after surging to $2,009.73. It has not closed with a $2,000 handle since March 8, 2022.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC reversed from $28.4K highs. Currently at $27.2K.

Today - ECB Lagarde speech, Canadian Inflation & US Existing Home Sales.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD(-55%). Retest 0.6200 floor! MA’s flattened, MACD histogram & signal line remain negative, RSI 35, H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 48.4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Mar 22, 2023 5:17 am

Date : 22nd March 2023.

Market Update – March 22 – Stocks build a rally ahead of Banks!

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stocks Rallied! Asian stock markets have followed Wall Street higher, GER30 and UK100 futures are also posting slight gains, while US futures are narrowly mixed as markets wait for the FOMC announcement later today. Even though concern over global financial stability is easing and risk appetite has improved, with central banks expected to tighten policy further there is still some nervousness ahead of the announcement, as fears that aggressive action will add further pressure continue to weigh.

UK inflation surged higher ahead of BoE.

The data came in much higher than anticipated, with CPIH rising to 9.2% y/y from 8.8% y/y, while CPI hit 10.4% y/y. Most worrying for policymakers will be the jump in core inflation – from 5.8% y/y to 6.2% y/y. The data will likely force the BoE’s hand tomorrow and another rate hike looks much more certain now than before the release.

*FX – USDIndex has corrected to 102.75 as Treasury yields declined. EUR corrected to 1.0760 but still in an upchannel. JPY weakened for a 2nd day, while it is now holding at 132.50. Sterling jumped after data to 1.2283.
*USDCAD popped to 1.37 on the cooler Canadian Inflation, from a 1.3654 low, but has dipped back to 1.3662 currently.
*Stocks – US100 advanced 1.6%, the US500 is up 1.3% and the US30 added 316 points, +1%. First Republic shares surged 29% while KeyCorp, US Bancorp, Truist Financial and Comerica picked up about 9% each by the close. Those five were also the top gainers on the US500 for the day.

Image

*Commodities – USOil – has snapped a two day run higher and is currently at $69.50.
*Gold – Evening Star Formation ? Gold slumped back to $1934 as yields on the 10-year government bond jumped Tuesday, making it more appealing to hold Treasuries than Gold.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds around $28K highs.

Today - ECB Lagarde speech, FOMC began its meeting, 25 bp hike expected, focus on dot plot!

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF(-0.56%). Jumped to 1.1334 reversing half of yesterday’s losses! MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line remain negative, RSI 57 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Mar 23, 2023 4:45 am

Date : 23rd March 2023.

Market Update – March 23 – Stocks Slumped Post Fed.

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stocks continue month’s downward spiral! Wall Street reversed gains to close with declines of -1.6%, but the slump was a function of comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen rather than the Fed. FOMC hiked 25 bps as expected, 2023 median dot left unchanged at 5.125%.

“The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” rather than “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”- suggesting less than a 50-50 risk for another quarter point move!

Even though Powell began his press conference reiterating the banking system is “sound and resilient” and assured the Fed is prepared to use all its tools to keep it safe and sound, Yellen at the same time told lawmakers she wasn’t considering ways to provide broad guarantees to uninsured bank deposits. She assured Senator Joe Manchin that in the event the insurance is extended, it could be seen as a “special one-time assessment” where the cost was not a burden to customers with smaller deposits.

*FX – USDIndex slumped on the less hawkish view to 101.54 as Treasuries and implied Fed funds futures rallied on the policy outcome. That is not far from the 101.21 from February 1 which was the weakest since April 2022. EUR spiked to 1.0920, JPY has corrected to 130.80 from 130.41 low and Sterling to 1.2337 ahead of BOE.
*In the UK, MPs backed Rishi Sunak’s new Brexit Northern Ireland deal!

Image

*Stocks – Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Nikkei and ASX following Wall Street lower, but China bourses outperforming. European futures are down, in catch up trade, and ahead of today’s decisions. US100 down –1.6%, the US500 is up at –1.65% and the US30 to -1.63%. PNC -5.49% and US Bancorp USB -7.28% declined more than 5%. Giants like JPMorgan -2.58% and Bank of America Corp. -3.32% slipped more than 2%. First Republic FRC -15.47%.
The FAANG era is apparently over! Apple & Microsoft weightage in the S&P500.
*Commodities – USOil – hovering around $70.
*Gold – Evening Star Formation & Head and Shoulders failed! Gold recovered and is back to $1980 highs on the weak USD. Next key Resistance at $1990-$2000.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC filled March gap but found a floor at $27K.

Today - SNB and BOE Decisions are in the spotlight, while EU consumer confidence figures is also on tap.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GOLD (+1.66%). Jumped to 1983. MAs flattened indicating possible consolidation in the near term but MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0 and RSI at 67 and flat.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Mar 24, 2023 10:29 am

Date : 24th March 2023.

Market Update – March 24.

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The various monetary policy stances and other dynamics in the financial markets are likely to keep the Greenback choppy.

Stocks initially down as Yellen stated that the government was not considering blanket deposit insurance, but afterwards her remark that the government is prepared to take additional actions provided some calm holding Wall street in green at the close, with gains of 1.01% on the US100. Asia markets were mixed, while European stocks are slightly higher on open. Overnight the BoE, SNB, and Norges Bank all hiked rates as expected – The SNB delivered a 50 bp hike, Norges Bank and BoE hiked by 25 bp. The bounce in risk appetite, the strength in jobless claims, and a renewal in corporate issuance have weighed a bit as well.

*FX – USDIndex modestly weaker at 102.30. EUR spiked to 1.0830, JPY has extended to 130.00 and Sterling found a floor at 1.2250.
*In Japan, we saw core inflation come in at 3.1% for February, marking the first time in 14 months that the pace of inflation has slowed.

Image
Image

*Stocks – The US30 and US500 are up 0.23% and 0.3%, respectively. Block & Coinbase tumbled over 14% and #FRC #PACW lost -6% and -8.55% respectively. Nikkei was down 0.13% to close.
*Payments group Block said it intends to work with US regulators and explore legal action against Hindenburg Research after the short seller issued a report accusing the company of inflating its user numbers and facilitating fraudulent transactions.
*Commodities – USOil – hovering around $69-$70 as traders weigh the Fed policy outlook and fine-tune expectations for US demand. The US crude inventories unexpectedly lifted 1.1 million barrels last week, which is the highest since May 2021. Large builds on the Gulf coast outweighed a decline at the Cushing Oklahoma storage hub. Markets are still waiting for the expected bounce in Chinese demand, while on the supply side Russia decided to extend its output reduction through June. That should help to keep a floor under prices.
*Gold – at $1985 after retesting $2003 again. Treasury yields may have nudged higher, USD remains under pressure but Gold has remained supported and added to the gains.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds above $28K.

Today - PMIs from EU, UK and US and Durable Goods.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.56%). Drifted to 81.10. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0 and RSI at 31 and falling. H1 ATR 0.25 & Daily ATR 1.19.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

Re: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:21 am

Date : 27th March 2023.

Market Update – March 27 – A Volatile Final Week of Q1?

Image
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian markets are much calmer today after another wild and volatile week, but bank angst and recession risk continue to linger. JPY is underperforming peers to start the week. US Stocks eked out gains on Friday, the USD recovered & Treasury yields fell across the curve, with all trading under 4%. Deutsche & Commerzbank lost -8.53% and -5.54% respectively. European and US FUTS are currently higher. First Citizens Bank will buy SVB from the FDIC, the Head of the IMF warns that global financial stability is at risk from banking turmoil, and the head of the Saudi Arabian national bank is forced to resign after sparking the run on Credit Suisse.

Week Ahead: US GDP on Wednesday and the CORE PCE Price Index on Friday top the data releases and the week, month and quarter.

*FX – USDIndex rallied from 102.00 on Friday to test 103.00 and holds at 102.80 now. EUR slipped to 1.0750 and continues to rotate round this level. JPY dipped below 129.50 on Friday before recovering to 131.25 now. Sterling tested down to 1.2200 on Friday and holds at 1.2225 now. UK OBR said that UK economy is 4% smaller due to Brexit exclusively.
*Stocks – US markets moved higher (+0.31% to +0.41%) Major movers were elsewhere: DB.de -8.53%, CBK.de -5.54%. Tech giants lifted US markets. US500 +0.56% (+22.27) to 3970, US500 FUTS higher too 4021 now.

Image

*Commodities – USOil – Futures tested the $67.00 level again on Friday before recovering to $70.00. Gold – could not hold the key psychological $2000 level on Friday and trades at $1970 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds at $28k after struggling to move away from this level last week.
Today - German Ifo, Speeches from Fed’s Jefferson, BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Schnabel & Elderson.

Image

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.55%). Continued the rally today from Friday’s low test of 94.00 back to 95.50 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.198, Daily ATR 1.600.

Image

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.
User avatar
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 2094
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to EUR/USD