Technical Templates

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Re: Technical Templates

Postby round number » Tue Nov 20, 2012 7:23 am

jcpfx wrote:There is only one setup that seems clear enough to try today, should we get there: short UsdCad

It's slim pickings so far jcp.
There are little pockets of activity today, with Euro & Sterling making a little headway v/s Aussie & eur/jpy ticking up & breaking through its own session highs into the London lunch period, but as you've alluded to, much of it is on the back of subdued volume.
That's not to say any of those moves aren't tradeable, just that they require a tighter rein than usual.
jcpfx wrote:Sometimes it's tough to stay still, especially if you haven't had a great year up to now. And the mind starts seeing opportunities everywhere without taking into consideration general conditions (thin) and risk metrics. Sometimes I get mad at myself just because, for example, "GBP MOVED! AND I WASN'T THERE" :roll:
Only to consider reality: it doesn't really matter if an asset goes from A to B...because if it goes there without momentum or without giving some sort of technical play, there's nothing to recriminate.

You should really take heart from not only acknowledging that scenario jcp, but getting to grips with it, because many traders (new & old) never quite manage to control it & either continually battle those demons or suffer frustrating account blow outs due to lack of discipline.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Tue Nov 20, 2012 7:36 am

round number wrote:You should really take heart from not only acknowledging that scenario jcp, but getting to grips with it, because many traders (new & old) never quite manage to control it & either continually battle those demons or suffer frustrating account blow outs due to lack of discipline.


...yeah round number, and those are the times when I start asking myself the question "what would jesse livermore do?" 8)
..Be the miracle...
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby kyle morgan » Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:09 am

round number wrote:There are little pockets of activity today, with Euro & Sterling making a little headway v/s Aussie & eur/jpy ticking up & breaking through its own session highs into the London lunch period.

2Taps mentioned last Wednesday that eur/jpy was a solid pullback long opportunity providing it remained supported north of 101.30 & it hasn't disappointed since then either.
Oct 23 high @ 104.60 is the first technical target, followed by 105.50, an area of S&R from March/April of this year.

2Taps wrote:The chatter re; snap japanese elections has certainly put the cat amongst the Yen, Aussie & Kiwi pigeons.
eur/yen above 100.0 could offer a tasty morsel or two on pullbacks if it manages to attract support above 101.30
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby shona123 » Tue Nov 20, 2012 12:35 pm

round number wrote:There are little pockets of activity today, with Euro & Sterling making a little headway v/s Aussie & eur/jpy ticking up & breaking through its own session highs into the London lunch period.

Nice prompts & pick ups this morning round number 8)
Westpac sent a client update out last night (London pm) & one of the header items was a strong lead-in to current levels on both your Aussie pairings into today's London shift, drawing (technical) att'n to the 61.8 pullback of last weeks key levels on GBPAUD & the 50% on EURAUD.
Image

And just an hour ago sterling/aussie was "mentioned in dispatches" on ForexLive as a potential "hot cake" from hereon in..... :wink:

Image
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby round number » Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:20 am

shona123 wrote:Nice prompts & pick ups this morning round number 8)
Westpac sent a client update out last night (London pm) & one of the header items was a strong lead-in to current levels on both your Aussie pairings into today's London shift, drawing (technical) att'n to the 61.8 pullback of last weeks key levels on GBPAUD & the 50% on EURAUD.

Lloyds also referred to minor tech significance at those levels in sub-notes on Monday nights roll call Shona according to Tess.

GBP: mpc minutes + public sector net borrowing the highlights of this mornings offerings & Stateside unemployment claims @ 13.30gmt are the main features on the data front today.

Early $US strength the focus of the Tokyo/Europe overlap today.
CAD, AUD & YEN are holding their own at respective levels, with EURO & CHF the early day laggards so far.

Softbank (on the back of their recent merger with Sprint - released Oct 15) have apparently started making noises to banks about preparing to buy $US's with a total finance arrangement in the region of 1.5/2.0 Tril Yen (to be officially confirmed).
Worth putting USDJPY & the crosses on the radar for future reference, especially on & around levels of technical significance.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby Sarah Foster » Wed Nov 21, 2012 5:19 am

As if Yen needed any more bad news :cry:
Hourly technicals still aggressively bearish on that currency right across the board.
Just pick a pair v/s yen, any pair & climb aboard via a pullback to your favorite level/area of choice!

It's still currently the highest probability bet of 4th quarter.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby Se7en » Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:00 am

kyle morgan wrote:2Taps mentioned last Wednesday that eur/jpy was a solid pullback long opportunity providing it remained supported north of 101.30 & it hasn't disappointed since then either.
Oct 23 high @ 104.60 is the first technical target, followed by 105.50, an area of S&R from March/April of this year.

It didn't disappoint in quickly covering those 2 initial destination areas either did it :wink:

There's not much resistance in the way of 107.60-108.0 for this pair now.
Pullbacks remain tight & well supported & until it begins to establish strong reversal behavior, it remains a buy on dips along with other yen based pairs.

usd/jpy next upside zone is the lower high area @ 83.20-30 (off the current years highs) ahead of those highs @ the 84.0 handle.

aud/jpy has clear air towards 87.50 & the current years highs @ 88.50.

Obviously there will be a correction at some point, but it will be very well advertized via the hourly & sub-hourly lower high/lower low cycle bias set ups & that's where fibonacci retracement levels might provide a little positive geography, together with previous higher low swing points to determine likely contact/support zones.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Fri Nov 23, 2012 9:04 am

Happy Friday Traders,

interestingly enough, even with US Thanksgiving there were some moves yesterday and today.

Cable is the most important pair on my radar at the moment. It has fallen back to 5925 after pushing off once before but making a lower high on my primary trend TF (4H). So i am waiting to see a close below 5925 to initiate a momo trade towards 5900 where I would expect some support. Depending on how it moves, we might go to test 5850s but who knows. Main focus is getting to 5900 first.

Image

As far as UsdJpy is concerned, along with all other Jpy pairs, I think the daily faders have started yesterday on the Daily "doji". I personally don't like how price is moving so far, and have stayed clear still. Any thoughts about short opportunities arising here?

Image

Cheers to all, and have a great weekend!
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby JimmyMac » Fri Nov 23, 2012 10:10 am

jcpfx wrote:interestingly enough, even with US Thanksgiving there were some moves yesterday and today.

There will always be moves to take advantage of regardless of the conditions, & each individual's participation will be wholly dependent upon the usual criteria regularly mentioned on here:
personal risk appetite
trading style
& trading objectives.

You just need to be acutely aware that when trading & executing in generically thin liquidity levels (which also impact retail brokers to a certain degree), entry/exit & stops can be subject to abnormal slippage or subject to erratic & sometimes detrimental execution pricing.
jcpfx wrote:As far as UsdJpy is concerned, along with all other Jpy pairs, I think the daily faders have started yesterday on the Daily "doji".
Any thoughts about short opportunities arising here?

If you spot a chink in the armoury & it takes your fancy by fitting in with your set up or trigger criteria, then it really once again comes down to that same boringly repetitive equation:
your risk appetite
& your objectives.

A doji usually denotes neutrality.
Printing at an extreme price move or key prior level can help illuminate & focus price reaction potential on a zone.
Some folks would prefer to see a little bit more information before concluding a likely trade opportunity, but others might take the first drop or rise through the neutral bar formation.
We all possess different views & risk appetites & there's no right or wrong decision either way.....only the one that sits comfortable with your personal circumstances.

There's nothing to stop you taking the option of shorting through the low of that doji via a pullback or cycle sequence on the lower timeframes.
Not only will you obtain keen risk, especially if you execute via a 5 or 15min frame, but you'll also get to take advantage of any accelerated follow through if thin trading conditions encourage bargain hunters into stepping in whilst a large sector of institutional marketplace are stuffing their bellies with turkey & alcohol.

For instance, price has cycled down today on usd/jpy on the 5 min frame this morning during european trade, dropping through its local range low @ 82.17 as frankfurt & london kicked into gear.
It pulled back to the 82.35 area but failed to print a higher high.
The low of that daily doji hits 82.26.

So, as price faded off 82.35 via the micro frame pullback, you had an opportunity to short it anywhere from there through 82.26 with a stop back above the high of the pullback to test any potential follow through.
That example is a perfect scenario of marrying up a macro timeframe identification signal with a micro timeframe execution & risk deployment.
If it opens out & goes your way, you then have the option of toggling up & managing the bet via any timeframe (swing points) of your choice, dependent on your initial & ongoing objectives.
Just be aware of the conditions, stay light on your toes & ensure you have a very solid get out of jail clause in the event of it springing back against you.

You pays your money & you takes your choice! :wink:
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby speedbump » Fri Nov 23, 2012 10:25 am

jcpfx wrote:As far as UsdJpy is concerned, along with all other Jpy pairs, I think the daily faders have started yesterday on the Daily "doji". I personally don't like how price is moving so far, and have stayed clear still.
Any thoughts about short opportunities arising here?

None of the Yen pairs are showing signs of deflating from current levels for me anyway.
They're still a buy-on-dips play.

The slight pullbacks so far are still shallow, not even dropping as much as their current ADR's, & certainly not displaying any clear, visible lower top or exhaustion price action behaviour.
I'm still taking opportune pullback long entries on any of the Yen denominated crosses that offer an appropriate entry set up.
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