Technical Templates

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Re: Technical Templates

Postby shona123 » Mon Nov 12, 2012 2:53 pm

Dappa wrote:I understand the higher low and lower highs yada yada. But how do you determine which way to trade in a down trend when you have price breaking a lower high on the h1 time frame? I still don't understand the answers given, its as though oh well this happens sometimes and answers like that. So the concept is flawed in the sense of, the price action will not operate in the same manner all the time.
To me it seems as though a logical approach is no different from letting an indicator tell you to buy or sell. Someone correct me?

I know it's very easy for me to say, but try not to let it stress you out dappa.
Everyone who posts on this thread has at some time been exactly where you are.
No-one here is perfect, neither are we immune from taking losses or experiencing poor runs.
You'll see them posted up here as often as you'll see the winners, but the common denominator between both is that they all adhere to the basic structure & framework even though our respective risk attitudes & objectives will differ markedly.

At one time or another we'll all find ourselves out of step with the market & take a spanking, even though we've identified the bias & the cycles correctly.
The market does what it does & even the best laid plans go awry, it simply is what it is (shrugs shoulders!!).

The one great thing about this structure & framework however is the fact that the majority of the time it positions you to the right side of the risk & the cycles help enormously when trying to control & minimize losses.

I'm sure I speak for everyone (including the experienced guys) when I say that if you're struggling & you'd prefer to discuss it more discreetly, fire off a private message & the next time one of us logs in we'll pick it up & do whatever we can to try help.
Sometimes 2 or 3 heads are better than one......even via the private route :D

Good luck to you man.
Shona.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby Eidriel » Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:51 pm

Thanks zilly and jjay.

As for that entry. I just followed what I was taught on this thread :)

and to Dappa, what shona said is true. I am still really a novice, but I am sure there is no strategy around that lets you win 100% of the time :) Otherwise, this business wouldn't even exist as everyone in the world would be winning. So just take it easy and make sure that the wins outnumber the losses, and you are good to go. This strategy I find, would at least assure you that :D
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:30 pm

Evening all,

picked up my coin today and flipped it twice...here are the results:

AudNzd short on the hold below 1.2730

Image

EurUsd Long off prior resistance zone (which did not hold)

Image

Any thoughts on these trades would be much appreciated!
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby shona123 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:34 pm

jcpfx wrote:picked up my coin today and flipped it twice...here are the results:
Any thoughts on these trades would be much appreciated!

Hi jcp.
I don't trade many of the crosses intraday due to their small daily ranges.
I still have AUDNZD ticking up on my 4&1 hour charts. Granted, the 1 hour is currently exhibiting a flat 60sma with a lower top printing today off 2785 which signifies (to me) a neutral/bullish stance as long as it remains above the next potential support ledge at 1.27, the 24 October high.

A fall through there & I'll be jostling for a short position via a pullback, but for now I'm neutral/bullish whilst it trades above 1.27

Euro is rather more straightforward on my radar.
Both averages are bearish, the general tone is soft & the current axis level on this pair is clearly 1.2750
Rallies are continuing to be batted back aggressively & I will definitely need to see a very determined hold + a well supported higher low shift beyond 2750 at the very least before considering switching bias from bear to bull, particularly intraday.

The few intraday bets I've placed lately via intraday pullbacks have been to the short side on this pair & will continue to be until a clear bias flip on both primary hourly charts.

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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Tue Nov 13, 2012 5:38 pm

shona123 wrote:
jcpfx wrote:picked up my coin today and flipped it twice...here are the results:
Any thoughts on these trades would be much appreciated!

Hi jcp.
I don't trade many of the crosses intraday due to their small daily ranges.
I still have AUDNZD ticking up on my 4&1 hour charts. Granted, the 1 hour is currently exhibiting a flat 60sma with a lower top printing today off 2785 which signifies (to me) a neutral/bullish stance as long as it remains above the next potential support ledge at 1.27, the 24 October high.

A fall through there & I'll be jostling for a short position via a pullback, but for now I'm neutral/bullish whilst it trades above 1.27

Euro is rather more straightforward on my radar.
Both averages are bearish, the general tone is soft & the current axis level on this pair is clearly 1.2750
Rallies are continuing to be batted back aggressively & I will definitely need to see a very determined hold + a well supported higher low shift beyond 2750 at the very least before considering switching bias from bear to bull, particularly intraday.



Hey shona,

thanks for the quick relpy and the insight. Regarding euro, I actually thought the pounce from 2670s to 2720s was the beginning of a new counter trend cycle up on the 1h frame for a push towards 2750s (also the key level for me), but i read it wrong and could have /should have looked for a fade downwards.

Regarding AudNzd, i too don't trade it too often but the 1.2730 break seemed too tempting...very evident on 1h and 4h charts with ambitious target 1.2650s...

Oh well...will pick the coin up off the floor and flip it some more tomorrow :-)

Good luck to you!
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby spotfx » Tue Nov 13, 2012 5:46 pm

Hey guys,
Long time no see.
Nice to catch a few new faces on the thread, some good stuff being posted too.

Thanksgiving is just around the corner & all we're hearing this week is more & more firms looking to lighten up & square off as soon after the holiday as possible.
It's been a really tough Q4 thus far & quite difficult to pyramid into anything worthwhile, especially with volumes yo-yoing so much during the past couple months.
So their spot & (fx) futures deals are getting trimmed off as they rotate back off trend swings.

Tess & the guys have been priming clients to take extra care this year as we wind into the year-end close & they're also scaling back & becoming a lot more choosy when instigating bets as we move into the last lap of 2012.

Some of the stuff whipcrack & myself have been majoring on are included in the chart snag below + AUD/CHF, EUR/AUD & GBP/JPY via the usual technical set up criteria.
You can pull up those charts & mark off the similar trend swing pullback/axis points as are shown on the 4 pairs below.
It's all pretty much the same familiar background prep etc.

Those are really the only valid pairs we're running positions on and/or considering pyramiding into as/if appropriate triggers set up into late Nov/early Dec.
It's going to be a very early finish for these guys this year, so watch how you go with running overnight bets as the liquidity begins to fade after next week.

Image
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Tue Nov 13, 2012 5:57 pm

So basically I chose the wrong year to go pro? :-P

Just kidding...thanks for the insight and the head's up into year end.

Good Luck!
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby Eidriel » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:33 am

Hi guys

This was an intraday trade I took on GBPJPY just yesterday, I got stopped out of it.

But I would like to ask you all for your opinion on how you all would have done it differently, in terms of analysis, entry, stop loss, and everything.

Thanks :)
Attachments
gbpjpy 1h.gif
gbpjpy 15m.gif
gbpjpy 5m.gif
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:21 am

Eidriel wrote:Hi guys

This was an intraday trade I took on GBPJPY just yesterday, I got stopped out of it.

But I would like to ask you all for your opinion on how you all would have done it differently, in terms of analysis, entry, stop loss, and everything.

Thanks :)


Hey Eidriel,

take my considerations wth a grain of salt, as I'm a newbie compared to most in here. You correctly say that the Trend was down :wink: You also got a perfect flip setup at 126.00 :wink:

What i would have done from there look for a rejection of the Flip itself because the area you were playing was "tight" in my view. You are looking to get a rejection off 125.95 for another trip down to lows at 125.70s (20 pips space at best) intraday. I don't personally like to extend my stay at lows and usually take half off myself if it's a second visit intraday and not a fresh "break" of lows (look at my next GbpChf trade for an example of that). To get a decent risk reward you would really have had to trade the pure level off maybe the 5Min wick upon arrival (see 5Min chart attached). Instead, you ended up using the hook at day lows...not a high probability trade in my experience, as fakeouts are more frequent than breakouts in FX.

Just my 2 cents...

Image
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:24 am

Flipped my coin this morning on GbpChf,

the trade went well, and as always i would appreciate thoughts on the initial entry especially: was it really too risky given that the trade originated 15 mins before UK data and at lows that had been well bid before? :|

1H chart setup:
Image

5Min chart execution:

Image

Thanks 8)
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