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[jcpfx]

Would really like to hear some comments on this trade

and I hope you got more out of this than me...

Although I also executed a short bet this morning, it blew out.

I took the first pullback out of the Tokyo & yesterday's low region this morning at 2730 & got stopped out an hour later as price pinged back inside the range lows.
That was the first indication there were light stops (& indeed bids) underneath that low area.

When I personally trade from a fast timeframe such as 5m I want to see instant cycle rotation, especially if the area is rumoured to hold buy or sell stops.
As there was no further cyclical short sequence on the 5m after price moved back inside, i stayed flat & have remained so for the rest of today on that pair.

Experience tells me (as do the comments from these guys) that if the first trip out of a defined range fails to kick on immediately and/or doesn't uncover stop activity attracting instant participation, then the odds of a follow through are very limited for that session.

As you say, we had post-rates ECB comments & they are usually key market focal points.
We've also negotiated a whippy US election phase & volumes are still very light on Euro, Sterling & Yen this week.

I won't (as won't most of the regulars) trigger bets whilst price is working inside a defined range such as today's Tokyo session high-low.
As i said above, there was no determinable cycle rotation to get hold of once price moved back inside the range after the initial pop.
Therefore, if there's no clearly identifiable cycle to climb onto, the risk is high & the probability odds of follow through are low.

Understood Sarah, these little details (instant participation on a break of a clearly identified range) are important to know. I appreciate the
swift reply and sorry to hear about the stop.

On the bright side, i learned something today!

[kyle morgan]

When I personally trade from a fast timeframe such as 5m I want to see instant cycle rotation, especially if the area is rumoured to hold buy or sell stops.
As there was no further cyclical short sequence on the 5m after price moved back inside, i stayed flat & have remained so for the rest of today on that pair.

Experience tells me (as do the comments from these guys) that if the first trip out of a defined range fails to kick on immediately and/or doesn't uncover stop activity attracting instant participation, then the odds of a follow through are very limited for that session.

I think it might be helpful to put a visual on that comment as some folks tend to absorb information with higher degree's of clarity when they can see the explanation in chart format.
Reason I'm highlighting this is that it's essential in this type of approach to have momentum when betting these set ups, if not then the result is exactly what happened this morning.

On the plus side, it doesn't cost a whole lot to check out the potential for follow-through momentum because usually you can engineer a logical, yet very good value risk stop......& when prices kick on the reward/risk ratio is excellent.
Also, because you're trading a cycle sequence of higher highs & lows going up.....lower highs & lows going down, you get a very early warning sign that all might not be well, affording you the oportunity to either scratch a bet or pull it prior to the stop getting snapped.

Familiarity breeds confidence as well as awareness.
The more you adhere to a sound, logically based structure, the better prepared you are to recognize & identify the positive as well as negative signs of the set up/trigger operation.

[kipper]

And here's what it should look like...
Smooth, assertive continuation shift away from the pullback, cycling down with good lower high momentum.
Hourly tops are also declining with moving average slope confirmation.

Bond auction sent this pair into a tailspin, but whatever the impetus/influence the resulting price action can be viewed clearly from the micro timeframe & traded successfully providing you have a consistently logical & practical approach to get you aboard & out again with relative safety.

[jcpfx]

Good stuff Kipper,

thanks for helping out and clarifying the "good vs bad setup".

I didn't see the Jpy...simply I was focused on other stuff and diddn't flip my screen over to the Yen crosses...

It's always a nuisance when, having limited "fire power", I end up in a possibly good trade on a pair that doesn't move - while others keep going

Anyhow...better luck tomorrow.

Happy trading to all, and good night here from CET time zone

[visualxray]

Presumably kipper you'd run that type of trade to an either or scenario?
The thick end of the average day's range or a mirror price action reversal of the initial move, where price begins to fade & step back up in the opposite direction?

[goldtop]

I didn't see the Jpy...simply I was focused on other stuff and didn't flip my screen over to the Yen crosses...

It's difficult to focus on a variety of pairs when you're trading solo jcp.
You need eyes in the back of your head, either that or a set of monitors purring away & a good appreciation of what's ticking up on the radar that's influencing/driving the current price action.

Thing is though, you're going to receive a fair share of tradeable opportunities each week even if you're only following a couple of pairs, so as long as you have a solid, common sense strategy/set up in place when they come knocking, you'll get your chance to execute.

Presumably kipper you'd run that type of trade to an either or scenario?
The thick end of the average day's range or a mirror price action reversal of the initial move, where price begins to fade & step back up in the opposite direction?

Exactly visualxray.

Those really are the only 2 options required on this approach.
No need to overcomplicate matters.

Current 79.30 lows represents 140% of the day's 1mth range.
The current axis on the move sits at the last LH @ 79.45, so that level break would violate the down cycle.

Tess & jjay called this one earlier in the room & were waiting for it to shift on the back of the auction.
Given it was a specific short-term momentum trade, they're out & flat on the first failure to print lower lows, but the options are always there for those running alternative objectives.

[Dappa]

Hello guys, I like the concept of the method and it make sense, the only two things that seem to bother me is this. When price breaks its last low and you wait for the pullback, what I see happen a lot is that price breaks through that pull back level and takes out your stop. Second, somtimes you wont even get a pull back to the level and price keeps going, how do you guys deal with these two scenarios? I will post a chart to show what i mean, when I find one that depicts what I'm talking about.

[Dappa]

Perfect example, for instance, that last chart that was posted up above, the 5 minute chart, price is making higher lows, now if price continues that up move it will come back into that lower high and you will be looking for a break/close of that last swing high ,which will constitute a cycle change, correct? Now when price breaks and pulls back to that level, sometimes it will break back down through the level and continue its down move by breaking the last swing low. How do you guys deal with the false break situation. is there anything that can be used as a confirmation tool? I have lost pretty much most of my trades this way, thinking that there was a cycle change and the down move continued.

[Dappa]

Here is a pic of what I mean

[strobe]

Perfect example, for instance, that last chart that was posted up above, the 5 minute chart, price is making higher lows, now if price continues that up move it will come back into that lower high and you will be looking for a break/close of that last swing high ,which will constitute a cycle change, correct?

If you're referring to the $/yen 5min chart on the price action off 79.30 then no, not correct. A higher low shift on that timeframe chart off that level wouldn't constitute a cycle change at all.
The background bias on $/yen is bearish.

If you were seeking confirmatory evidence of that view just look to the 60sma on the 4&1 hour charts (which they've advised as a basic heads up) to check the vicinity of price & the the angle of the slope in relation to the indicator.
That is usually a pretty consistent guide, especially if you possess a slightly less aggressive risk attitude.

And depending on that risk attitude, you wouldn't/shouldn't be even considering a long view until at least one HL has printed on the hourly or 80.0 has been scaled & put to bed.

Again, your euro/dollar chart is showing a long example when the primary (hourly) bias is indicating a short stance.
Go back & revisit goldtop’s post from last Sunday.
The chart he annotated explains the price behavior in relation to 1.2890 & 1.28.
It's also repeated as recently as Wednesday in Jack's review.

I might be mistaken, but I'm getting the impression by your comments & chart example that the majority of losses you're experiencing might be due to a background (primary) bias identification conflict?
.