jcpfx wrote:what makes monday & friday flows so different than tues-wed-thurs?
Logic would say that there are "must do" flows going on somewhere/somehow but I was wondering if there's more to it than that...
It's changed quite a lot over the past few years.
Networks & systems have become more efficient in masking & managing large throughput.
Even these day's it doesn’t really run to a consistent pattern. Contacts we speak to on a daily basis certainly don't confirm any irregular pattern developments.
Flow will be directly influenced & orchestrated by how much block a certain clearer or tier 1 outfit, or the market in general has to work through the fixes & who is dealing it. Interbank (as opposed to wharehoused retail orders) speculative flows are, & always have been governed purely by whatever is in vogue on the day/week.
If a desk have heavy volume to transact, for instance an acquisition or merger, they'll slice & dice it, feeding it across regional hubs if need be in blocks to smooth out the transaction & ensure they're receiving "best price & fair value".
Occasionally if the market is running light & thin the feed through will spike or jerk the price until the deal is closed out, especially on or around a fix. There might also be several banks working (ghosting) an order for a sovereign or CB & they definitely won't want to advertize it to all concerned, so that will influence a level (tight consolidation on your technicals) for however long it takes to get the deal done.
There's a lot goes on in the background you'll never get to hear about & will never be able to piggyback either, unless you have contacts who specialize in working certain objectives on a regular basis for specific entities.
Bottom line;
Read (price action) what you can, where you can, when you can...specialize in an approach that offers you a really simplified, basic yet logical view on price action & frame it with a sensible technical structure – that's the best you're going to get betting via the retail angle.
jcpfx wrote:Also, on a level 2 retail platform I access, I have noticed that in the past 3 months there's only something like 21-30 mln on the bid/offer at any one moment on EurUsd...that seems real thin compared to past volumes...something really bad about to happen or is it just the EU crisis + US elections combo dictating extreme uncertainty?
Can't help you with the retail numbers unfortunately.
We don't pay any attention whatsoever to that sector.
