Technical Templates

[jack mason]

Bad Idea...stopped out even after a nice 1H wick formed...go figure...

There's a lot going on today man.
Month end
Orders still trying to be worked & booked through the Frankfurt & London fix
Back order clearing being routed across regional hubs

Chatter in the interbank rooms today suggesting a lot of broker networks are still very light due to the storm & therefore flows are likely to be exaggerated & erratic.

The highest probability (fx) business was done into early Frankfurt/London on the first initial order book.
Options & stock business will be jerky until next week.
Take it easy & tread carefully the rest of this week

[jcpfx]

Thanks Jack,

it would have definitely been better to refrain from trading knowing that the storm might have caused some erratic price movments.
I also have to say that trading london is usually more to my appeal than trading NY...but trying to maintain a professional spirit, it's tough to
accept the fact that one may have trouble trading when certain players are in the field as a pro should be able to survive in any environment.

Again, thanks for the support

[shona123]

2950 remains the fulcrum on EURUSD, with clear upper & lower range boundaries still in place.
I've been playing 60m bias/5min cycles away from, & back to this middle line lately & will continue that strategy until either side of the upper/lower boundaries are taken out & consolidated.

According to whipcrack (courtesy of Jocelyn et al) 1.30 was defended with decent blocks above & heavily offered first time around.
It puts 950 in the spotlight tonite/tomorrow & the outer boundaries are safe for another day.

That lower high will have to break with conviction otherwise it's a sell 5 minute rallies cycle down towards a possible re-test of the current week's lows.
strobe's tight trailing stop with full stakes was a cagey play this morning into that upper offer zone

[strobe]

it puts 950 in the spotlight tonite/tomorrow & the outer boundaries are safe for another day.
That lower high will have to break with conviction otherwise it's a sell 5 minute rallies cycle down towards a possible re-test of the current week's lows.

Totally agree, all the pressure is on the low end of 2950.
Yesterday's low is also under pressure with potential for a move back towards the week's lows.
Pretty typical low risk/high probability set up for a short bet placing the stop back inside the tokyo range to check out the downside momentum.

[jcpfx]

Nice openings this morning guys & gals,

this is my contribution to the thread's p&l: Cable Long off 1H pin + Flip Level. I just exited all at 1.6159

[strobe]

scratched it here for an even bet.
should have taken the 2:1 odds on offer down at the current day's lows on that 2nd trip instead of sitting through all this chop, but there you go.
the only thing it's cost me is a couple hours.

conditions are obviously still thin out there, nobody has the appetite to lay any big bets yet until NY sorts it'self out & everyone gets back into the groove.

[jcpfx]

Long Scalp EurJpy off 1H pin

[jcpfx]

Long Scalp EurJpy off 1H pin

Out @ 103.80, entry was 103.50

Was anyone able to get a piece of Kiwi? I missed it completely...

To Strobe: yeah, the Euro short was best after 1st retrace back to 1.2950 zone off the 5Min 9.15 pin for a push back down to the bottom.

[2Taps]

Was anyone able to get a piece of Kiwi? I missed it completely...

Not usually via an intraday play.
One or two here pick Kiwi, Aud & Cad up on a slightly longer time duration view, usually off 4 & 1 hour directional bias pullbacks looking to run it over a 2-5 day period.

The lower average daily range coverage on the crosses make it a more difficult option to get in & out intraday with positive risk ratios, especially when attempting to leg in during european business hours.
A lot of the time they cover a good percentage of their range during their own regional shift.
Even the 1-3 month ADR on NZDUSD is usually sub 70, which kind of skews the positive reward/risk ratio.

Apart from NZDJPY & the occasional bite on EURNZD, the others have been conflicting with their bias cycles on the mid hourly charts so far this quarter.
You have to choose your battles carefully with most of them, but when the opportunity sets up they return very acceptable odds.

[jcpfx]

Was anyone able to get a piece of Kiwi? I missed it completely...

Not usually via an intraday play.
One or two here pick Kiwi, Aud & Cad up on a slightly longer time duration view, usually off 4 & 1 hour directional bias pullbacks looking to run it over a 2-5 day period.

The lower average daily range coverage on the crosses make it a more difficult option to get in & out intraday with positive risk ratios, especially when attempting to leg in during european business hours.
A lot of the time they cover a good percentage of their range during their own regional shift.
Even the 1-3 month ADR on NZDUSD is usually sub 70, which kind of skews the positive reward/risk ratio.

Apart from NZDJPY & the occasional bite on EURNZD, the others have been conflicting with their bias cycles on the mid hourly charts so far this quarter.
You have to choose your battles carefully with most of them, but when the opportunity sets up they return very acceptable odds.

Hey 2Taps,

thanks for the info. Recently I have traded Kiwi and I have put notes on the 4H chart below to show where and why (basically playing around levels + price action confermation):


All FX have had huge range compressions so it just seemed that there was less to be made (but also tighter stops) so it seemed logical. It's interesting instead that
you evaluate a range compression as adding risk. Was wondering if you could expand on this thought...

And now, time for a newbie question that I may have skipped if someone had already answered it previously: what makes monday & friday flows so different than tues-wed-thurs? In my year of coin-tossing, i have noticed how supply/demand levels get "busted" easily during early EU and NY flows and price only stops after it's ADR or 11.00 AM (usually, for EU) or 18.00 PM (NY). I have since adopted a "follow the leader" view on mondays and fridays upon EU open, trying to avoid fading, even if there is a tough level to pierce.

Logic would say that there are "must do" flows going on somewhere/somehow but I was wondering if there's more to it than that...

Also, on a level 2 retail platform I access, I have noticed that in the past 3 months there's only something like 21-30 mln on the bid/offer at any one moment on EurUsd...that seems real thin compared to past volumes...something really bad about to happen or is it just the EU crisis + US elections combo dictating extreme uncertainty?

Thanks for the consideration and forgive me if I skipped some post where this was already confronted.

Ciao!