Technical Templates

[kipper]

If the Australian Dollar continues to correct next week I'll be looking to add GBP/AUD and/or EUR/AUD alongside the AUD/USD for the most appropriate trigger/setup combinations.

I've preferred to play the Canadian Dollar pairs for the past 10 days or so as that currency is jogging along handsomely as evidenced by the futures chart.
All of them have offered up pretty standard, typical hook opportunities on 60 & 15min timeframes on it's steady climb north & I'll keep betting it until the hourly swings come under pressure & the moving average slope tell me otherwise.


GBP/AUD isn't far off this big S&R zone at 5250/80 which has been charted on here previously.
That's my big target area for the next major decision point if it continues to push on up.
The entry criteria is straightforward - hooks on either the 60 or 15min via pullbacks to previous swing highs/consolidation areas.



Similar set up on the EUR/AUD pair.
It's traded right into a channel of resistance last week from middle-late July & I'll be looking for pullback continuation longs if the momentum stays bullish.
I'm just going to pick the best of the opportunities between these two & the AUD/USD to play this current Aussie correctional behaviour.

If price fails to get supported at or above any of these near term swing points on any pullback activity then I'll stand aside & wait see how it plays out.
Other than that, it's simply a case of 'going with the dominant flows' until the flows slow to a trickle & flip around!!

[kyle morgan]

I've preferred to play the Canadian Dollar pairs for the past 10 days or so as that currency is jogging along handsomely as evidenced by the futures chart.
All of them have offered up pretty standard, typical hook opportunities on 60 & 15min timeframes on it's steady climb north & I'll keep betting it until the hourly swings come under pressure & the moving average slope tell me otherwise.

scroll through the watch list
identify & focus in on the currency displaying current strength
match it up with the currency displaying current weakness
mark up the relevant & pertinent S&R reaction zones
ensure sufficient ADR & risk parameters are in play
& wait for the consistent set up triggers to signal you in....

[xerb]

Nice to see prices holding on & around your highlighted s&r zones into today's action guys, but if all else fails there's always the reliable old USD/CAD short to leg into.

It obliged with another London pullback hook yesterday (on 60 & 15m) right at the 9900 round number.
It's still the summers banker bet!

[2Taps]

Nice to see prices holding on & around your highlighted s&r zones into today's action guys, but if all else fails there's always the reliable old USD/CAD short to leg into.
It obliged with another London pullback hook yesterday (on 60 & 15m) right at the 9900 round number.
It's still the summers banker bet!

I'll agree, it's definitely the most common sense bet since end of 2nd quarter xerb.
It's being confidently backed up via the fundamental themes too.

Canada's central bank are much more on the front foot than it's (economically impotent) trading partners.
Narrowing brent & wti oil prices + positive investor flows are continuing to support the loonie, hence the favourable "sell rallies" stance when betting it v/s the buck, euro & sterling & "buy dips" stance v/s Yen.

The fact it's perfectly suited to this type of setup/trigger combination is a huge bonus.
Obviously summer lethargy has to be respected, but if opportunity knocks & the risk justifies the bet, it's goer in my book.

usd/cad is working within a s&r zone that stretches back to January where it encountered very stiff resistance.
It bounced the zone last month forming another lower high in this downtrend, & is now struggling to push back above here. Bias is clearly bearish (4 hour & daily views) & personally I'd hedge to the downside by shorting into rallies.

The only other open spot bet on his blotter is a usd/cad short triggered tuesday morning, which I understand was flagged up as a prompter (along with the aussie) by catcher over on the TT Babypips thread last Sunday.

[hawkmoon]

Price has been rotating between the 2 zones since that post on August 8 & momentum is now beginning to pick up on the short side.
This area will now act as a resistor & a "sell rallies" pullback trigger if bids fail to hold & consolidate into next week.
I will certainly be seeking to short aussie underneath the 2 highlighted zones, where offers will now likely be building on unsuccessful attempts to break back up off current levels.

the bids held up good yestarday into the tokyo & european opens rotating price back into those twin s&r zones again.
i was prepareing for a possible 1-2-3 continuaton short through 1.0435 & left a sell-stop order overnight but it didn't get down there so never triggered.

If the Australian Dollar continues to correct next week I'll be looking to add GBP/AUD and/or EUR/AUD alongside the AUD/USD for the most appropriate trigger/setup combinations.
GBP/AUD entry criteria is straightforward - hooks on either the 60 or 15min via pullbacks to previous swing highs/consolidation areas.
Similar set up on the EUR/AUD pair.
It's traded right into a channel of resistance last week from middle-late July & I'll be looking for pullback continuation longs if the momentum stays bullish.
I'm just going to pick the best of the opportunities between these two & the AUD/USD to play this current Aussie correctional behaviour.

that's an excellent preparation set up there kipper which panned out exactly as you presented, virtually to the pip.
if you took either of those entery's yestarday morning you nailed a very good long continuaton bet.

in fact whipcrack posted those 2 charts along with another pair in the live room as they were playing out yestarday morning confirming entery decisions to clients.
i'll try & get him to post them becose they are exact mirrors of your analysis, which proves you newer guys are really getting in the groove with the structure/framework & prepping your potential bets correctly. Very impressive.

xerb/2Taps:
you are right guys...keep focusing on the clearer, cleaner opportunities as & when the technical & fundamentals dovetail & you'll increase your odds markedly of swinging into the higher probability bets.
canadian dollar is still the horse to be on this quarter.

[whipcrack]

that's an excellent preparation set up there kipper which panned out exactly as you presented, virtually to the pip.
in fact whipcrack posted those 2 charts along with another pair in the live room as they were playing out yestarday morning confirming entery decisions to clients.
i'll try & get him to post them becose they are exact mirrors of your analysis, which proves you newer guys are really getting in the groove with the structure/framework & prepping your potential bets correctly.

Although I echo hawkmoon's praise I'm not really surprised with your analysis kipper, or most of the other regular posters contributions.
Most of our input is (& should be) of a very similar nature & quality because it follows a simple, uncomplicated structure combined with common sense, logical risk/entry & bet management procedures.
In fact I'd be very surprised if it differed wildly from one anothers input.

You’ll get a pm offer from Jimmy or jjay before too long if you keep that quality up!!

[speedbump]

Fantastic sequence of posts/charts on here of late.
It really forces me to raise my game when I'm both scanning, preparing my analysis & seeking to contribute - which is exactly what it's supposed to do.
I thought the thread over on Babypips was in a different league, but this one is raising the bar ever higher

2 pairs in my field of vision at current levels are gbp/usd & usd/chf.
I'm not a particularly great fan of the cable, but I've quickly realised that one pair is very much like any other when setting up & reacting to important prior levels of s&r, so I definitely won't exclude it from a potential bet just because of personal preference.

Although it's printed higher lows up off the 5350 area, it's struggled somewhat to establish an aggressive push through this sticky 5700-5750 zone.
This 5-6 month long prior support (in March) turned resistance (during May) is now in play again with prices continuing to dominate from the bull side.

I had a little nibble at it on the 8th August via an hourly pullback hook & again last week through 1.5665 (same trigger). I haven't touched it this week yet as there hasn't been an appetizing setup/trigger to take a bite out of, but it's now on my blotter again for a likely pullback hook either backing off from this current s&r zone or a break & pullback through the other side.



Swissy is also nudging a previous zone of s&r going back to the beginning of June.
With Euro putting on a brave show of defiance I'm going to look to this pair as my trigger considering it's more or less an opposite mirror of eur/usd.
The thing that's swaying it for me with this pair is the current location of price, & if the bullish euro action continues I'll look for a reaction back to & away from or determined activity underneath this s&r zone to trigger me in via the usual setup criteria.

[Sarah Foster]

whipcrack,
A question about the "initial" comment on your EURAUD & GBPAUD charts from Monday's entry that you posted up yesterday.
Does that mean you're looking at the 1.1900 & 1.5100 levels as initial take profit or exit points? or is it in reference to something else.

I note from the charts they are potential reaction points going back to July, so am assuming it's a reference to either the average daily range limits or a technical profit area.
Thanks & hope your association with those guys goes well for you & spotfx!

[whipcrack]

It was simply meant as next logical price destination area Sarah.
It also wasn't meant for general distribution, which explains why I was asked to blot out the other comments before posting.

But to clarify....if the momentum is kind enough to drive prices up to the next pre-identified technical markers, (which it was on this occasion) those area's would act as the next decision points for the respective bets.

These guys work quite differently with regards their bet management than we're used to seeing on these trading forums. When the occasion calls for it they'll marry up or lay off a lot of their bets with complimentary risk measures such as options contracts as opposed to traditional stop-loss orders. Or they will trade spot positions around their options bets as protective or additional profit mechanisms.

Based on the particular model & objective they're using at the time, their spot positions will be structured in stages or levels.
Instead of scaling out at pre-defined points, which you often see advised thoughout various threads/methods, they'll actually maintain their total stake & pyramid in if the price action displays positive continuation potential, which is what has occurred on both those bets this week. That explains the initial 1.1900/1.5100 comments. It also results in impressively explosive profits when one or two of these moves really kick on.

They are really aggressive with some of their approaches when conditions dictate, & one or two of their procedures take a bit of mental (re) adjustment, but the results are well worth it. It also means they don't need to be constantly in the market or taking unnecessary risks on any specific asset class. Everything they do pivots around diversification & positive risk distribution.

I must admit ever since I (& Scott) hooked up with them on a permanent basis my head hurts......but in a good way

[kipper]

You’ll get a pm offer from Jimmy or jjay before too long if you keep that quality up!!

Ha ha ha, I wish!
I'm just putting into practice what I've learned from the content. But I do appreciate your comments guys, so thanks a lot.

GBP/AUD isn't far off this big S&R zone at 5250/80 which has been charted on here previously.
That's my big target area for the next major decision point if it continues to push on up.

And right on cue it pitches up into that pre-identified area & locates the first bunch of resistance.

It's Friday/end of week & price has covered it's 3 month average weekly range trading into this s&r zone, so I guess it wouldn't be too surprising to witness some of those longs taking a little profit off the table & adjusting trailing stops into the weekend.