Technical Templates

[zilly]

Price behaving according to plan again this week as it's breached, pulled back & moved away from the highlighted zones in trend mode on all of the pairs highlighted on this page, once again offering entries via the typical set ups & triggers.

And the next logical & probable destination zones are as clearly identifiable as the entry zones.

[kyle morgan]

And the next logical & probable destination zones are as clearly identifiable as the entry zones.

They certainly are/were.
usd/cad just pushed up into that next potential supply zone
nzd/jpy has moved below 59.50 today & now has next level s&r in it's sights.
aud/nzd is attempting to push into & through this 1.30/3050 barrier having pulled back & offered a 4H/1H combination hook entry yesterday &
gbp/aud has offered a similar pullback long entry this week betting on another run at this upper s&r zone at 1.6150/80
Next upper target for this pair will be the 2011 summer highs at 1.6350


All this negative risk activity of late is bringing 2 lower s&r zones sharply into focus on eur/jpy.
Plenty of pullback hook opportunity over the past couple of weeks have driven prices to within a whisker of this 1st lower zone & if expected, all this turmoil continues the years lows will very much be on the radar!

[hawkmoon]

All this negative risk activity of late is bringing 2 lower s&r zones sharply into focus on eur/jpy.
Plenty of pullback hook opportunity over the past couple of weeks.

They're all pressuring respective levals on the back of this risk-off tone kyle.
I've been likeing the price action on the Oz ever since it broke down through that big support zone at 1.0225-50 posted up on here a little while back.
As with all the other pairs, the dominant bias & hook combo have kept everyone on the correct side of the flows.

Oz is currently reacting off this big support area from last November & shorting rallies back from & through here opens up a clear previus resistance zone from November 2009 & April 2010.
It also acted as (first) support during October 2011 & will be a huge magnet for shorts if this key 9660-90 support zone gives way.

[whipcrack]

I got half a dozen pairs up on my watch list for next week that are buzzing around 4 hour hook extremes in line with their respective dominant bias directions.
On the long side I got aud/nzd which closed out Friday right into a prior resistance area (1.2915-30) from the 14th & 15th March.
If it holds this area & offers me a lower timeframe hook entry I'll take it on for a ride back up to & possibly through the current month's highs at 1.3050.
A breakdown from this current s&r zone would have me neutral on this pair for the time being in favour of other pairs.

The other long candidate for me next week is gbp/aud.
The 6170 area is proving stiff but it's still holding a higher low pattern in line with the clear bullish bias.
It's resting at this prior resistance zone from November 2011 & a move up through 170 opens up the next s&r at 1.6340-80.
I'll continue to bet long on pullbacks until 1.5900-30 gives way, which would naturally put me neutral this pair.


Short candidates include;
aud/jpy which bounced a prior s&r zone from December 2011 (76.90-77.20) on Wednesday & Thursday & is looking to hook down off 80 in line with it's strong directional bias. Shorting rallies remains the smart bet, with a move back up through last week's highs taking me to a neutral stance on this pair.

aud/cad has pulled back last week forming a lower high & is currently about to hook down at 1.0040 underneath a strong s&r zone ( 1.0100-40) going back to November 2011.
A move back through that area would put me neutral that pair, other than that, shorting rallies is the higher prob bet.

nzd/jpy is my 3rd short candidate.
Another lower high pullback is hooking up at 80 in line with the trend & next support comes in around 58.20-50 which is the December 2011 lows.
Getting seated around the current level and/or shorting rallies back towards last week's highs is high on my agenda.
Good luck for next week everyone!!

[round number]

Thanks for the regular pre & post entry updates guys, it's great to have a reference point from which to gauge my own analysis from to ensure I'm preparing my bias & approach correctly.

I realise there's not much that can go wrong as it's all quite straightforward, but the points of reference are cool nonetheless.
All 3 of those short recommends have done the business so far this week whipcrack!
I didn't trade at all Monday due to the bank holiday, but noted (& confirmed on my own charts) the levels you mentioned to look out for & of the 5 choices I plumped for AUD/CAD as it was keying off a very solid support & resistance zone up at 1.0100-40 on the back of a pullback early into Tuesday morning.

One question for any of you guys: I played a 1-2-3 (+ stoch hook) off the 5m chart on that pair which triggered me in at 1.0082, offering me a stop placement above Monday's highs at 1.0120.
I haven't played the crosses very much at all really, but in your experience do the entry, set up & trigger criteria work as effectively on those pairs as they do on the majors?
I accepted a little slippage on entry (had it at 1.0090), but the zone was ok & my initial target was down towards last week's lows, so I was happy with the background.

Just wondering if slippage & fills are as efficient on the crosses or if I need to take that into consideration when assessing risk & reward potential.

I also took a pullback/lower high short on GBP/USD yesterday in line with the current trend as it rejected the s&r zone at 1.5600-30 (from 12th-15th March).
It was hooking off 80 on the 15m & gave a 1-2-3 on the 5m.
It's only the 2nd New York entry I've taken, but both have proved successful. The common denominator so far however is trading from the location/zone with good confirming price action.

I'm beginning to enjoy the 1-2-3/hook combo with trend entry!!
It doesn't appear as often as I'd like, but when it does & the background preparation stacks up, it's a very high hit rate entry option.

[JimmyMac]

One question for any of you guys:
I haven't played the crosses very much at all really, but in your experience do the entry, set up & trigger criteria work as effectively on those pairs as they do on the majors?

They work just fine right across the board.
What you're doing is utilizing a proven mechanical set up in tandem with a solid discretionary approach, & that combination is extremely powerful when you put the odds firmly in your favor.

One of the key essentials in ramping up those odds is only picking pairs/instruments that conform to the strict bias/trend criteria that is constantly referenced on here & wherever possible, matching it up with trading away from clearly identifiable levels & zones of significance.....& judging by your contributions thus far you're doing a pretty good job of transferring & replicating that information into successful application.

I accepted a little slippage on entry (had it at 1.0090), but the zone was ok & my initial target was down towards last week's lows, so I was happy with the background.
Just wondering if slippage & fills are as efficient on the crosses or if I need to take that into consideration when assessing risk & reward potential.

Occasionally it's a problem, even with the heavyweight institutional brokers.
You'll experience most of your slippage on the crosses during a fast paced move. The liquidity & price availability isn't as fluid as it is on the majors & some (retail) brokers don't deal the numbers as efficiently as others. Most of the time you'll be ok, but try & ensure you stick to triggering your entries in & around those repetitive zones & levels of technical significance that we constantly bang on about in here.

The common denominator so far however is trading from the location/zone with good confirming price action.

Exactly.
As I mentioned back in the post, that is one huge advantage to this type of discretionary approach.
Get that correct & slot it into place alongside the directional bias, & you're cooking on gas!

[Se7en]

Hey guys,
Poor old euro has been neglected on here lately so I'm putting it up alongside the aussie & cad as 3 pairs I'm eyeballing for potential continuation moves next week.
If I get one of the threads typical set up entry opportunities anywhere from current level back towards their respective previous weeks highs/lows which keep the trend sequence intact, I'll get onboard looking for moves to the zones highlighted on the charts.

[spotfx]

Couple of very decent pullback/hourly hook shorts on Euro & Aussie today se7en, right around your identified action zones.
Hopefully they'll continue moving away for you.
Dollar is struggling to make headway in the US session. That initial s&r zone on Aussie around the 9800 level & this 2550 (current week high) area on the Euro are definitely the spotlight zones this week for the Dollar.

Good luck if you're currently positioned short from those pullbacks

[Se7en]

Couple of very decent pullback/hourly hook shorts on Euro & Aussie today se7en, right around your identified action zones.
Good luck if you're currently positioned short from those pullbacks

It was a toss up between eur/usd & aud/usd & I chose the former, mainly due to the neutral/exhaustive price action up there at 1.2520 as europe came online this morning.
I had 3 spinning tops out of the 6 hourly bars through the Tokyo session & placed a sell stop at 1.2510 underneath that sessions range low with my stop back above the session highs at 1.2540.
As you say, I got the hook up at +80 on the stochs on both 4&1 hour charts with very acceptable risk placement for a potential move back towards last weeks lows, so it kind of sat up nicely.

I've just actually pulled my stop down to rest at a breakeven trade in case this small series of higher lows on the hourly attempts to get a foothold. We've had a steady & prolonged move down off 3250 with very little corrective action, so it's certainly due a breather.
But we'll see.

I'm more than willing to keep selling rallies until the price action tells me otherwise!

[goldtop]

I've just actually pulled my stop down to rest at a breakeven trade in case this small series of higher lows on the hourly attempts to get a foothold. We've had a steady & prolonged move down off 3250 with very little corrective action, so it's certainly due a breather.

That was a very sensible move & good reasoning.
Potential spanish bank bailout rumors are driving (higher) euro prices this week & you don't really want to fight that kind of intense momentum.
Watch the price action around last weeks highs where there's also some prior s&r traffic highlighted on charts further up the thread, & if the momentum remains to the upside you could catch a little long pullback action.

The price action will soon tell you if this corrective push has merit. I wouldn't become married to any long bets just yet if I were you, but it's ok to take small bites out of it whilst the hourly momentum signals continue to give the go-ahead (via higher lows).