Technical Templates

[hawkmoon]

one other pair on my list for shorting with the bias is audcad pair.
i am angry that i missed the pullback short on friday after the american jobs report, becose it was a classic trade entry candidate that the guys are always presenting
but it is now firmly on my short entry list if it either pulls back & offers a hook or candle print (2 bar or 1-2-3) entery or looks like toppling over in european session.

did anyone had this on their radar this morning as it pulled back into that s&r zone?
it was the best of the highlighted (pullback) bunch given the vicinity of the technical area i think.
euro-dollar pulled back to the 50% of last weeks highs to yestarday's low & the pound-dollar reacted in that lower of the 2 localized zones on the previous chart, but the aussie-canadian was the sweeter pair to trade in my view considering the well established bias.
it is currently reacting off yestarday's lows, but the entry leval & risk/adr ratio allows for very aceptable odds bet.

[whipcrack]

did anyone had this on their radar this morning as it pulled back into that s&r zone?
it was the best of the highlighted (pullback) bunch given the vicinity of the technical area i think.

Oh yeah!
Nice pre-trade analysis on that one hawkmoon!

It really does behave in an orderly technical fashion, especially when it’s in trend mode & being aided by bouyant oil prices.
Another technically well behaved pair when keying in via pullbacks is EURNZD providing it has its trending boots on.

I nibbled at AUDCAD a couple of times back in December when it broke & held 1.0450 & 1.0520
Gold prices were on the up, supporting Aussie....whilst oil was getting skittish & backing off 100.0

I’ve found that if you get a combination of stochastic (hourly) hook keying off a clear technical s&r zone, the success probability is high. But you need to grab the extreme turn to obtain decent value due to the pair’s low ADR coverage, which you referred to in your post.

[kipper]

Whipcrack/hawkmoon,
I've marked out this box as the next logical technical support on the pair.
It look like the next possible area to expect any kind of realistic bid activity to come in & slow things down?

Unfortunately there was no quality set up or trigger to get aboard this morning. There was an extreme 15 minute hook signal, but unfortunately it played out in the Asian session when I was still sleeping, so that was a no go for me.
Although a 1-2-3 was present this morning it didn't really represent acceptable ADR confirmation due to the amount of ground it had already covered. You guys definitely snatched the higher value deal on this one!!

Thank god the Yen is still trending nicely, because there's not much else showing any worthwhile quality this week.

[whipcrack]

Whipcrack/hawkmoon,
I've marked out this box as the next logical technical support on the pair.
It look like the next possible area to expect any kind of realistic bid activity to come in & slow things down?

There's a little chunk of prior resistance which is more easily visible via the large hourly charts kipper coming in around 1.0370-90 from late December, that price is now attempting to negotiate.
Apart from that nothing of any real significance until that box area you correctly highlighted that brackets 1.0250-1.0300

USD/JPY is certainly offering reasonable value again this week & it's dragging EUR/JPY along for the ride too.
Those are by far the less stressful opportunities to leg into via the usual triggers. Plenty of clear bullish hooks to get stuck into on the smaller timeframes charts for sure.
Take advantage & milk it while it's available.
When that one runs out of (bias) gas, there's bound to be something else revving up ready to jump onto

[xerb]

I've just hooked back short into this pullback to that lower daily range Jack highlighted the other day in the above post.
Classic re-test move with a nice 2 bar reversal entry through the low of that 1.0640 hourly bar.
I got the round number @ 1.0600 & todays lows @ the 1.0530 (also a confluence support zone from tuesday & yesterday) as my initial sticking points.
I'm happy with the risk/value ratio anyway, + it's more than covered it's average days range into todays highs, so I'm looking for that to add a little shoulder barge south!

Price finally moved down into your second identified tier of probable support this morning during the Sydney/Tokyo shift.
That's a nicely managed trade showing calm discipline.

Cheers Jimmy. I've banked a little profit down here, shifted my trailing stop down accordingly & am now looking for a continuation to the next highlighted area of probable conflict.
Hopefully we'll keep this risk-off tone for a while to enable prices to bed in & consolidate this short view!

This familiar ceiling up here on the Index inside this defined range will be your stepping stone to further drops on the aussie/dollar pair next week xerb.
If it can put clear air beyond this resistance zone then your short can push through the gears down towards your next target zone.
Good luck next week all.

With the Dollar Index headed up into the top of the upper tier resistance zone jjay highlighted last weekend, this aud/usd short finally docked into the lower S&R zone I identified on Monday.
I'm cashing out completely here & wrapping up for the week. There's a sunbed in Majorca with my name on it, so I'm off to spend some of my profits!!

The next support ledges are layered approx every 100pips further south from current level, with keynote price levels standing out @ 1.0350-80 & 1.0190-1.0220.
I'll dial back into the charts next week when I get back & see where we're at.
They'll be plenty of opportunities to leg in via pullbacks on the spotlight pairs.

Enjoy the rest of the week guys & trade safe.

[Carll]

Price is bouncing, rejecting & focusing on some very familiar levels & zones that feature constantly in the pre-trade analysis discussions on here.
Worth updating & revisiting one or two of these focus pairs going into the weekend to prepare for next week's activity.
Gold bounced last week's highs before continuing its dominant bias & that zone will feature strongly on the next re-visit ahead of that prior week's high s&r zone at 1675-80. Soft prices will have a slowing effect on Aussie progress & should be constantly referenced in relation to any potential mid-term AUD positioning.


That being said, the support area that xerb legged out of for his successful AUD/USD short earlier in the week will be in focus again if this pair reacts off the current week's highs up at 1.0550
Shorting rallies remains the higher probability option until it negates the current bias, but it's always prudent to refer to a plan B in the event of opposite sentiment or influences coming into play, so the next visible zone of potential conflict lies up at the 1.0650-70 region, which as the technicals show is a prior week low.


It's close neighbor the NZD/JPY is attempting to put this stiff resistance zone up here in the rear view mirror, which has acted as a prior weekly high & any easing of the bullish sentiment will bring this zone right back into focus along with the prior 2 higher low steps at 67.40 – 67.80. They're important bid zones if this pair wishes to strengthen the breakout level & gain further upside mileage.


EUR/USD has a few common & consistent levels in its sights both to the north & south of current level.
Bias remains bearish on this pair until it can hurdle & consolidate 1.3100 (current week's highs) & push confidently through 1.3200 (last week's highs).
Again, shorting into rallies looks the smarter option particularly if it begins blowing & puffing at this immediate resistance level.

[kipper]

Shorting rallies remains the higher probability option until it negates the current bias, but it's always prudent to refer to a plan B in the event of opposite sentiment or influences coming into play.

EUR/USD bias remains bearish until it can hurdle & consolidate 1.3100 & push confidently through 1.3200 (current weeks high).

I like your attitude in that first paragraph Carll. Things can often change quite quickly in the markets & it doesn't pay to stay married to a particular bias or view.
If price stays above the upper level of 1.3200 that would mark the breakthrough of the 60ma on the 4 hour chart, which is quite a consistent guide on bias changes.

I have support coming in from as far back as the middle of January & price has obviously attracted buy orders (& closures of short bets) around this area during the latter part of this week as seen on my hourly chart. I haven't traded the long side yet, but the price action & stochs hook signals off this area of previous demand have certainly supported that view for those interested in trying their arm.


So I'm setting out my stall to watch for pullbacks early next week anywhere from today's high level (which coincidently marks the average day’s range) down towards my highlighted areas, & if I receive the usual trigger signals with accompanying price action on or around the open of Europe I'll place an order to go long & see if it can push up to your next highlighted zone at the 1.3300 zone.

If it falls straight through & fails to generate any bids I'll back off & wait to see how it plays out.

[West]

Thank you for that analysis Carll. Very clear and simple. I have a question regarding your short range 5 Minute stochastic hook model if you don't mind. In your previous examples shown, you have triggered once price has broken and pulled back to a either a pre day high/low or pre week high low (assuming forward ADR is sufficient). That is straight forward enough. Do you ever trigger this model ahead of one of these levels? As an example using EURJPY on Friday, 60 minute is trending up so I am looking to buy dips. Price breaks up above the Asian high and pulls back giving a stoch hook trigger ahead of the pre day high. Would this type of scenario qualify? Similarly, would you also trigger if price pulled back to say the Asian or New York low if the 60 minute is trending up? (the example shown to asian low is before London comes online but it highlights the principle). I'm assuming that you are not simply taking the first 5M stoch hook in line with the 60 min trend once London comes on line?

Thank you
West

[Carll]

Thank you for that analysis Carll. Very clear and simple.

Hello West.
You're welcome.

I have a question regarding your short range 5 Minute stochastic hook model if you don't mind.
In your previous examples shown, you have triggered once price has broken and pulled back to a either a pre day high/low or pre week high low (assuming forward ADR is sufficient). Do you ever trigger this model ahead of one of these levels?

Yes, particularly when a strong & established bias/trend is in evidence.
This type of technical play works most effectively when prices are displaying very aggressive one-way directional momentum.

As an example using EURJPY on Friday, 60 minute is trending up so I am looking to buy dips.
Price breaks up above the Asian high and pulls back giving a stoch hook trigger ahead of the pre day high.
Would this type of scenario qualify?

Yes it would.

Similarly, would you also trigger if price pulled back to say the Asian or New York low if the 60 minute is trending up? (the example shown to asian low is before London comes online but it highlights the principle)

Yes I would.
But bear in mind my risk appetite & specific trade objectives for a particular pair might be very different to yours or anyone else adopting the exact same approach.

I'm assuming that you are not simply taking the first 5M stoch hook in line with the 60 min trend once London comes on line?

No. Everything else has to stack up as well.
By that I mean the background price action leading up to the potential entry such as previous day/days bias & influences...sensible & appropriate risk location & reward ratio...& of course sufficient range potential at point of entry.
If you're using this approach to take intraday bets then that's probably the most important element you need to consider.

[kipper]

So I'm setting out my stall to watch for pullbacks early next week anywhere from today's high level (which coincidently marks the average day’s range) down towards my highlighted areas, & if I receive the usual trigger signals with accompanying price action on or around the open of Europe I'll place an order to go long & see if it can push up to your next highlighted zone at the 1.3300 zone.

Pullback during the Tokyo trading session.
15 minute 1-2-3 confirmation hook held up the mornings price action allowing an acceptable risk underneath the early London lows.
60 minute hook made a higher low alongside the smaller timeframe price action.
Plenty of ADR to the upside.
Green light, decent bet with the usual initial targets on the chart, being the ADR (125pips) or the 1.3300 round number for a partial scale out & stop readjustment, whichever comes first.
And currently it's finding minor resistance at the average days range, equalling 125 pips off the days lows.

All the usual preparation & setup criteria in evidence.