Technical Templates

[xerb]

I've just hooked back short into this pullback to that lower daily range Jack highlighted the other day in the above post.
Classic re-test move with a nice 2 bar reversal entry through the low of that 1.0640 hourly bar.

Decent risk above recent highs that offers a good view to check anymore downside potential.
I got the round number @ 1.0600 & todays lows @ the 1.0530 (also a confluence support zone from tuesday & yesterday) as my initial sticking points.
I'm happy with the risk/value ratio anyway, + it's more than covered it's average days range into todays highs, so I'm looking for that to add a little shoulder barge south!

[Joe Whitehorse]

I'm happy with the risk/value ratio anyway.
I got the round number @ 1.0600 & todays lows @ the 1.0530 as my initial sticking points.

I agree, you nabbed yourself very good value indeed off that level.

Your bet is currently under the microscope into the NY close with offers capping this short-squeeze off your anticipated 1st sticking point at the 0600 round number, but if you're still holding into this retrace then I'd seriously consider trying to ride it out & see what occurs in the morning when the Greek psi news hits the market.

If they begin easing off the risk tonite & offers up at 0670 manage to cap any further upside into the psi news, you could get a free n easy ride into the NFP numbers.
A lucky positive $US dice roll on that data will have you sitting pretty & offer the opportunity to pro-actively manage your bet into a potentially attractive late week close/weekend rollover.

Skill & luck are quite often touchy feely bed partners

[xerb]

Your bet is currently under the microscope into the NY close with offers capping this short-squeeze off your anticipated 1st sticking point at the 0600 round number, but if you're still holding into this retrace then I'd seriously consider trying to ride it out & see what occurs in the morning when the Greek psi news hits the market.

Yeah I'm still pretty relaxed with the trade to be honest. If it moves above the 1.0685 stop then the reason for being in the trade in the first place will no longer stack up. That's a major lesson I've learned from the guys on the thread at Babypips & you guys over here.

I was happy with my initial risk & value deal therefore I've got no reason to begin panicking & chopping it around now.
If it moves away into profit, then great. If it gets stopped out, equally fine.
It's just another in a long line of high probability opportunities.

[goldtop]

That 1.0600 round number is well bid at the moment xerb, so just keep an eye on it on any dips towards it today ahead of the U.S jobs data.
Chinese inflation data came in with a smiley face, which translates to reasonably good news for the Aussie as it's a direct beneficiary of positive Asian industrial output.
That type of good news offers them options for pumping the economy & if you're trading the Aussie currency it's always worth keeping close tabs on Chinese & Japanese data.

[jjay]

This familiar ceiling up here on the Index inside this defined range will be your stepping stone to further drops on the aussie/dollar pair next week xerb.
If it can put clear air beyond this resistance zone then your short can push through the gears down towards your next target zone.
If it gets slapped back inside again you might want to consider alternative tactics until it generates clearer momentum via the dominant price drivers.


Yen is still atop the trend leader board for legging in via pullbacks, as has been referenced by one or two guys here lately.
To save getting stuck in the mud guys always try identify the easier options when scanning your pairs & wait for the big, obvious signals to take your bets on.

That target 1 support zone highlighted by hawkmoon last Monday on euro/yen is a great example of hooking back into medium-term directional bias.
I realize he played a short back into that zone, & that's cool given the resulting price action at the time - but the fact it was identified & plotted as a key reaction level demonstrates the high probability potential of the zone & should be on the radar of those seeking out continuation entries with the dominant bias. Everyone's objectives will be different, so you're not all going to be viewing these common reaction zones from the same side.

There's a similar zone of s&r/continuation bias activity on dollar/yen that reacted this week too, which I'll leave to one of you newer guys to correctly identify & highlight!
Good luck next week all.

[2Taps]

Thanks for that Dollar Index reminder jjay, I keep unintentionally omitting that chart from my end of week analysis update & will make a note to include it in my assessment before looking over the other pair selections.
cheers.

There's a similar zone of s&r/continuation bias activity on dollar/yen that reacted this week too, which I'll leave to one of you newer guys to correctly identify & highlight!

I'll have a go at this & see if I can put all the information I've learned from you all to good use!!

I've got one marked off as both a zone of resistance & support from the last week of february into the first few days of march, from approximately 80.60 to 80.90
The major thing I noticed from this pairs move back into the support zone last week was all those rejection type candles at the 80.60 level evidenced by the long wicks. Price was clearly being supported there & going long was my interpretation of higher probability trading because of the reluctance to move lower.

The 60 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart was sloping strongly northwards, adding substance to the current bullish trend.

On the 15 minute chart at that zone during tuesday & wednesday there were quite a few dojis, inside bars & hammers. According to the advice on here, that usually signifies fair value & a reluctance to move lower. Subsequently, looking for bullish hooks & ignoring all bearish hooks on the 60, 15 & 5 minute charts at the previous support would, for me, indicate the higher probability, lower risk option.

I hope I've managed to cover the important parts & am sure you more experienced guys will add to my analysis if I'm missing something major.
Thanks & here's my chart to back up the above analysis.

[jjay]

I hope I've managed to cover the important parts & am sure you more experienced guys will add to my analysis if I'm missing something major.

Nothing to add at all, except to say well done.
You covered it right there & if you continue to keep your macro & micro view as focused & simple as that when identifying & applying the material you'll run a tight ship.

Most of you guys have a pretty impressive handle on this thing now. If you dial it back to when this thread kicked off & also pitch it back to day 1 on the TTCont'd thread, you'll see the same tune playing day in-day out with all the repetitive directional bias prompts/set ups/triggers & risk-reward returns laid out there for you to hook onto.

Whatever your preferred style & trade objectives are, you've got options to mold & blend the material to.

[2Taps]

Thanks jay. I appreciate the feedback.
This thread has taught me more about focus, discipline & attention to detail than anything else I've read out there.

I've been focusing & practicing on identifying divergences at key s&r levels & common market reaction points such as pullbacks to previous day & week high lows etc, & the logs I've been keeping have revealed some incredibly interesting & positive results, especially when linking them up with directional bias confirmation off the 4 & 1 charts.

I know it isn't mentioned much on here (as much as it is on the Tech Template threads on Babypips), but I've found it really helpful as an additional confirmer to high probability entry set ups & hope posting up the info might help & encourage other regular readers to spot when these opportunities are forming in sync with their usual trigger criteria.
There was positive confirmation on tuesday & wednesdays pullback on this pair, + a hidden div set up signal ahead of friday's end of week follow through.


I've also marked up my potential support watch level ahead of time in preparation for next week's trading, which will focus my attention if prices pull back to check for any further upside follow through.
If I spot any of the aforementioned technical behaviour setting up anywhere from the current high back towards those higher low levels marked on the chart, I will drill down into the 15 or 5 minute timeframe & begin looking for an appropriate entry to get back in long with the superior bias.

If price falls through that support zone, I'll step aside & observe how it reacts to the next support level around the 81.0 zone.

[kyle morgan]

That's smart analysis 2Taps.

I'm not at all surprised you're recording positive results observing divergences on the slightly higher timeframes. They're terrific confluence prompters & are a worthwhile addition to anyone's pre-trade preparation.

I know you haven't mentioned them & I'm sure you're aware of them, but don't overlook where most of these pullbacks & moves off consolidation zones actually kick away from.

A lot of the focus on this thread, as it is on the Babypips threads, pivots around prior day/week & month high-low levels.
If you look back on your first chart underneath that 82.0 resistance where the 2 arrows are signifying Friday's pullback? that rejection bounced off the prior week high.

Also, down at the bottom of that chart around the 81.0 level of s&r where that fair value plays out on that bullish divergence? the move up kicks off the prior day’s low.

A lot of these key price moves at critical levels up & down the chart more often than not start, stall out or end at these common, repetitive technical levels.
It's why they suggest marking thick vertical lines to highlight the prior & current trading week & vertically separate the individual trading day's, so they're easily identified & quickly referenced.

If others haven't already done so, it would be a very smart decision to include those vertical separators on your technical chart!

[bigdog]

Hi All, another beautiful day here in Australia. Hope there are a few other aussies hanging around.......

Here is a potential trade I am looking at.

My primary bias is short on the cable. Price is currently at decent support around 1.5650. So no trade for now.

If price gets back to the 1.5720 to 1.5750 area I will look for a 1-2-3 trigger short on the 15M.

I will also trade (entry trigger) pin bars, engulfing bars, spinning tops etc but ONLY on the 1H, 2H, 4H ....time frames.

A wise person once told me that candle stick patterns have little meaning on the sub-hourly time frame. Would be interesting to hear others views on this

If price breaks north then I will wait till price gets to 1.5800 - 1.5820 before looking for my next trigger short. Simple.......I think.....

I am only looking for a trade during the London session.