Technical Templates

[akhunzada ali]

Thanks Spot fx for your input. i am at a stage of infancy in forex market but being with you people is something very great at this stage. Thanks Again!.Well i made around 80 pips today by the same strategy i ve been using but entered on a 1 minute time frame today .But i have a question regarding Eur/Chf that the daily price bars are moving side ways and i at this point am confused that where is the market going up or down?? Do i need to just wait for a more definitive trend formation or does this still qualifies for a down trend . i will give a visual in my next post .

Regards
Ali

[akhunzada ali]

This is the Scenario i am having problem with and hope you people can help. Thanks again Spotfx and Jjay!

[jjay]

i have a question regarding Eur/Chf that the daily price bars are moving side ways and at this point am confused that where is the market going up or down??

What do you currently use to assist in establishing your market bias Ali?
Have you read & observed anything within the content of this thread that might offer you a few clues in that department?

Do i need to just wait for a more definitive trend formation or does this still qualifies for a down trend

Well, the previous 10 weeks activity on this pair certainly confirms a current bearish slant.
However, it failed to print a lower low after 30 December & has since printed a higher low around the 7th/10th January. That signifies a temporary lull in downside momentum for the time being & if price should break back & close above 1.2725 it would confirm that range low technical support at the 1.2400 zone.

In addition to that, if you look to the left on your chart you'll see that price is approaching a potential area of possible resistance from the swing low of 8 September at the 1.2760 level.

So this upper zone from 2725-2760 will likely offer up some heavy clues as to the near term progress of this pair.

[akhunzada ali]

What do you currently use to assist in establishing your market bias Ali?
Have you read & observed anything within the content of this thread that might offer you a few clues in that department?

i use higher swing highs and higher swing low in a uptrend(As stated by joe ) what i want to ask you is if the last lower swing in an uptrend is compromised does that mean the trend has change or do we need another swing low for our bias to go short ?? thanks again

Regards
Ali

[jjay]

what i want to ask you is if the last lower swing in an uptrend is compromised does that mean the trend has changed?

No, not necessarily.
You would need a little more confirmation first before arriving at that conclusion. And of course some would argue that it's dependant on which default timeframe you're observing too.

Technically, (in an uptrend) if price fails to make a fresh high & prints a lower or equal high instead whilst also compromising the previous higher swing low, that would indicate an obvious lack of continued bullish momentum & decreasing demand, but not necessarily a trend change.

or do we need another swing low for our bias to go short?

It would always be extremely advantageous to receive some sort of confirmation before jumping in & out of directional bias changes. Another swing low & lower swing high is certainly one valid confirmation of a possible change in bias yes.

[akhunzada ali]

hey guys ,
Just wanted to ask one quick question from you guys that how do you people pick your pairs for the day, is it just random or do you consider something else while picking pairs?? .Do you people consider the news lined up for the day and consider those pairs which would be heavily affected from those news?

And can anyone direct me to the daily range calculator that you people might be using to see the daily ranges and how much a given pair has moved at a given time of the day .Thanks

Regards,
Ali

[Joe Whitehorse]

how do you people pick your pairs for the day

When trading via this (discretionary) particular style we'll match the technicals up with whatever influences or drivers the market is paying attention to.

There will usually always be a central theme that is influencing one or more pairs, be it the Dollar, the Pound, the Euro etc. We'll then zone in on whichever pair or pairs are displaying the stronger technicals & see if anything of interest is developing.

That requires dialling into background info such as squawk relay services, bank sheets, industry data updates (Reuters & Bloomberg wires), newswire services + a contact network of ex-colleagues & current dealer/broker trade desks.

Obviously non-industry players won't have that depth of access, but you can still dial yourself into daily industry updates via outlets such as these:
http://www.forexlive.com/category/all
http://www.dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies/

They'll offer you a broad snapshot & update on what the market is focusing on during a typical trading week.
Don't get too deep into it, just ensure you're ahead of what the general market flow is focusing on.

Do you consider the news lined up for the day and consider those pairs which would be heavily affected from those news?

We're definitely aware of what's printing & when, what the expectations are & the possible repercussions if the data gets skewed either side of the consensus, but I wouldn't say we're primed & loaded ahead of any one particularly news release.

We certainly don't target trade news releases.

can anyone direct me to the daily range calculator that you people might be using to see the daily ranges and how much a given pair has moved at a given time of the day

Most of us use data provided by an in-house facility Ali & they won't permit any of their proprietary stuff into the public domain.
You can do a search on the net where I'm sure they'll be more than one of those freely available downloads doing the rounds?

Failing that simply stick up a 40ATR on your daily chart, which will offer you a pretty accurate current read on the average of the 1 & 3 month running number. As long as you've got a session low or high to dial in off you can work the rest out in your head.

[akhunzada ali]

hey guys ,
i traded my first combination trade went long Eur/Usd two times when the price struggled to get pass the 1.3740 resistance but it moved against the tide and i scratched those trade with little loss .
The second trade was gbp/Usd went short at 1.5913 the trade was a winner but i have two questions redgarding this trade .
1) the daily range was completed when i took the gbp/usd trade!!! , would you people consider taking this trade ??
2)the trade materialized just after the news release of US GDP , would you consider taking trade in such scenario's.?
Thanks

Regards ,
Ali

[whipcrack]

The second trade was gbp/Usd went short at 1.5913 the trade was a winner but i have two questions redgarding this trade .
1) the daily range was completed when i took the gbp/usd trade!!! , would you people consider taking this trade ??

Hi Ali,
The current average range on the gbpusd is (approx) 150pips.

Before you placed that bet the low of today printed in morning London trade was 1.5852
The high of today is showing as 1.5966.
That's only 114 pips or 76% of the day's range from low to high at that time, so that still left approx 25% of the range intact.

But it didn't matter anyway as you were shorting off the days high.

So, if you then take the reverse calculation & use the days high of 1.5966 & minus 150 pips from there, that takes the potential short target to approx 1.5816.

You shorted at 1.5913, which means you entered your trade at approx 35% into the range.
That leaves you with approx 65% of the remaining range available if prices continue back down.

2)the trade materialized just after the news release of US GDP , would you consider taking trade in such scenario's.?

No.
We rarely enter positions so close to news releases.
We're not trading gbpusd at the moment due to the fact there is no clear, distinguishable directional bias on that pair.
We have however been trading long eurgbp for obvious reasons (if you take a quick look at your 1 month chart.)

[akhunzada ali]

hi whipcrack,
thank you for your quick and detailed response, yes you are right i was calculating the daily range wrong.i just got my hands on a daily range indicator which was stating the same thing as you stated in your post .i am demo trading this strategy with some changes as per my risk apetite and i must say that this is the most simple strategy i have come across with some great ROI..!! .And off course the help your people are extending is greatly appreciated. thank you all !!

Regards
Ali