Technical Templates

[jack mason]

The impression I continually get from the posts on here is that supply & demand can be viewed & traded successfully from whatever timeframe you witness it.

Correct. It's perfectly transparent across the complete timeframe cycle.
As long as the area or zone you're looking to engage from has history, such as the one you identified on the above chart example, & you can compute acceptable risk in tandem with decent value, then you're covering your bases & playing the positive odds.

I assumed so, just wanted to check. Thanks man!

I was going to post a couple charts highlighting exactly that scenario on the 15 & 5 minute frames via gbp/usd this week surrounding the 1.5075-90 zone (anyone interested can plot the channel on that level & see for themselves why it holds relevance), but it was commented on far more knowledgeably than me across on Babypips by one of your colleagues!

whipcrack messaged me recently recommending I take a look at that thread & I'm sure glad I did - it's an excellent complimentary addition to the work presented here!!

[jjay]

I was going to post a couple charts highlighting exactly that scenario on the 15 & 5 minute frames via gbp/usd this week surrounding the 1.5075-90 zone (anyone interested can plot the channel on that level & see for themselves why it holds relevance), but it was commented on far more knowledgeably than me across on Babypips by one of your colleagues!

Yeah, that thread (& site in general) attracts a little more attention & activity than this joint.
But you're correct, the theme & structure on that thread over there reflects the material on here pretty accurately.

I've hijacked a chart of Carly's that she posted up on Tess' private forum on Tuesday as London closed up for the day, that emphasizes your comments regards that demand zone perfectly.

Once you identify the key reaction levels, all you need do is mark up your intended decision criteria & as long as you can compute acceptable risk & potential value, your work is done!


As price dropped down into that previously identified demand zone (5075-90) on Wednesday morning, it once again attracted bids.
By triggering at the value area, you got excellent risk coupled with more than acceptable profit potential back towards a run to the supply zone at last weeks high (1.5230).

And as if by magic, it's reacted off there again this morning as the offers come into play on the trip back up.
All good stuff huh?

[goldtop]

whipcrack messaged me recently recommending I take a look at that thread over on the Babypips forum & I'm sure glad I did - it's an excellent complimentary addition to the work presented here!!

Yeah, that thread (& site in general) attracts a little more attention & activity than this joint.
But you're correct, the theme & structure on that thread over there reflects the material on here pretty accurately.

I've spent a couple weeks perusing that material on that thread, & it's truly excellent work!
I particularly enjoyed the the recent contributions concerning the 1-2-3 & momentum pullback set ups that Sean P recommended someone take a look at.

Maybe we could introduce that trigger set up on the work here?
It would compliment the dual timeframe, support & resistance (supply-demand) zonal analysis perfectly.

[Joe Whitehorse]

Maybe we could introduce that trigger set up on the work here?

Sure, why not. Take it wherever you want.
You can superimpose & wrap any combination of trigger & set-up you choose around the structure & foundation of the support/resistance (supply-demand) zones & levels.

That's what the structure is there for, to act as a template or conduit for the price action set ups that suit your timeframe execution & favored trigger/set-up tools.

[jack mason]

Guys,
I've come across the term "fixing" a few times on my travels & did a bit of research on it.
Although I'm now slightly more wiser than I was & have a small idea of what it is, who exactly benefits from the fix & is it a period in the trading day that non commercial traders could/would gain any type of advantage from?

I imagine quite a lot of big funding gets churned & cleared around these important market times, but I couldn't dig a whole lot of information out about who deals around it & what the main benefits are.

Cheers.

[JimmyMac]

There are 3 main fixings across the trading day Jack.
Tokyo @ 00.50 gmt
ECB @ 12.15 gmt &
London @ 16.00 gmt.

Their primary function is to accommodate 'best transparent dealing price' for clients & is mainly engineered by asset managers.
Basically bids & offers are aggregated & cleared at a published price at these specific times in the business day & the asset managers have a duty to their clients to obtain best price execution.

To be honest, the majority of the volume strikes out at the 4.00pm London fix & if there's going to be any kind of imbalance in the order flow, it will be more visibly observed around these clock times.

For instance, if dealing desks/banks have an inordinate amount of buy orders to get done at the fix, they'll begin pushing the market up to ensure they receive "best possible price" for clients.
Conversely, if they're looking to deal a stack of sell orders, they'll look to work the market down to execute & book "best deals" into the closing prints.

You can see the reaction of a heavily traded or influenced fix by occasionally witnessing determined or sharp directional price gyrations after the fix closes out.
Unless you have a wide contact base throughout the interbank network & you're particularly intent on dealing off the back of the fixing flows by catching a back wind on the possible pop in price, then it doesn't really hold much merit for the ordinary retail or independent trader.

Under normal circumstances you won't be unduly affected by the rhythm of the market flows on & around the fixing.
Just be aware of the times so that when you notice any anomalies, you're not standing there scratching your head wondering what the hells going on!

[spotfx]

It's similar to the type of occasional price action seen around important Option barrier defenses at big figures & the regular stop hunting events that take place after New York closes & into the late morning of the Tokyo sessions.

Not that I'm active in the market after 22.00 bst - far from it, but those that are certainly need to be on their toes & on the look out for the obvious stop levels on the higher volume pairings when the Australasian dealers are on the hunt for those stops.

[Carll]

It's similar to the type of occasional price action seen around the regular stop hunting events that take place after New York closes & into the late morning of the Tokyo sessions.

Not that I'm active in the market after 22.00 bst - far from it, but those that are certainly need to be on their toes & on the look out for the obvious stop levels on the higher volume pairings when the Australasian dealers are on the hunt for those stops.

you mean like the todays action!
they sure sliced thru the offers at 5500-10 on Cable huh? looks like they found more than a few bunches of plump stops lurking beyond there.....
Dollar/Yen vulnerable atop 84.90 too if they can herd it up there today. Local banks look like they've busy during their session today right across the Yens.

[Joe Whitehorse]

Dollar/Yen vulnerable atop 84.90 too if they can herd it up there today. Local banks look like they've busy during their session today right across the Yens.

That's a pretty heavy looking offer zone right around there Carll. Just look at the move away from there as London geared up for action Tuesday. They weren't hanging around dumping Dollars that's for sure.
It also marks out last weeks lows, so it'll be a zone of interest to techies too.

[spotfx]

you mean like the todays action!
they sure sliced thru the offers at 5500-10 on Cable huh? looks like they found more than a few bunches of plump stops lurking beyond there.....

Exactly.

Thing is you can jump on the pair that's establishing the better looking technical signals when the flows are clicking correctly across a particular pairing, such as the case on the Euro during today's Tokyo shift.

EURUSD is normally the best candidate due to its superior weighting, but if it's a Euro flows story, then be sure to keep tabs on EURJPY because that will attract the "risk on-risk off" crowd in droves & will either lead EURUSD out of range, or follow & sprint on the back of the flows.
If the stock market and/or Bonds are in vogue too, you can bet EURJPY will let you know, as it's the recognized risk barometer in the currency market.

Those 1-2-3 & momentum triggers mentioned on here recently are excellent set ups to take advantage of decent value bets when the volumes begin opening out….just look at the behavior on a 5 minute EURUSD & EURJPY tech chart today to see a good example of that