Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

After all the EM troubles in the past week, UsdJpy looks like it might be a sell once again. Order pending 101.34 SL 101.65 Target at least today's lows.
Apparently Goldman is on the bid but there's a lot of overhead resistance into 101.60/70 so it might be worth the trade if we don't break higher.

Other trade is a pure fade (new setup, not introduced here) on EurGbp at 8288 on the pullback after UK data today. Fade initiated from last week's high/swing point being faded this morning and potential for this move to go to 8200s.

Good luck to all this week

[kipper]

Performing the usual basic background research will always keep you seated & focused on the short-to-mid-term directional potential.

Yen futures began bottoming out into January & that series of higher lows (further confirmed by last week's break of 97 & subsequent hold on strong bullish momentum) would have alerted interested parties to the spot contracts of whichever pair took your fancy.


The subsequent lower highs & lows on the hourly charts below 140 on eur/jpy & 167.50 on gbp/jpy last thursday & friday mirror that continued strength on Yen futures.

I always obtain better bang for my buck playing the Yen cross instruments over usd/jpy due in part to the additional volatility & range coverage.
They tend to move a lot faster & deeper whenever conditions change & swap sides, especially following short (& continuation) consolidation phases, but to each their own.

[Sarah Foster]

Talkng of yen strength, this one highlighted a couple of week's back only held up another day & a bit after you posted it before dropping another 4 handles on the next leg down

..............Keep a keen eye on CAD/JPY particularly if 94.50 fails to hold up.

[jcpfx]

Question for everyone still lurking around in here: other than trading in line with the bias searching for continuation bets, has anyone attempted to try trades like Jack has shown a long time ago here viewtopic.php?f=5&t=140&start=350#p20118 ?

Reason being, I have become accustomed to the continuation trades and I have been exploring situations where price encounters a very evident level/area of previous demand/supply (like swing points as in this case) from the daily chart which, if the fundamental flavouring offers the opportunity, can turn out to be nice "fade trades", which can later be complimented with continuation bets if the move grows legs.

This week I attempted to fade GbpUsd on the second descent and rejection of 6250s (accompanied by a 4H stoch divergence), getting in around 6280, and held through the BoE and now the trade is looking quite good.

I also attempted a short fade on EurGbp on tuesday which ended up with a stop at BE on wednesday morning.

Another attempt i tried was AudNzd a couple of weeks ago, after jan 24th daily pin bar and continuation on the 27th, which was the early bird signal that gave way to the rise in AudNzd which i compounded on with continuation entries on jan 31st and feb 3rd.

The "rules" i have drawn out for myself on these fades (before comming back to see if anyone had done something similar in here) were:

1) watch the daily candles upon approach to the level
2) wait for some hourly/4h price action signalling reversal intent
3) try to match it up with a sentiment driver
4) shift down to a 1H price action stance or 15min continuation stance to get aboard

Also, the first approach to the level is generally not interesting for me. I've seen it pays to be patient and wait for the second (failed) assault.

Hope you have some keen obeservations on this type of reversal setup, which I know is always more difficult and has more risk than continuation setups but the more i watch it and try it, the more i see it's benefits. The logic is "attempting to position myself at a value entry as close as possible to the source of the potential future move".

Cheers!

[2Taps]

Question for everyone still lurking around in here: other than trading in line with the bias searching for continuation bets, has anyone attempted to try trades like Jack has shown a long time ago here

Hi jcp,
Not me. As you noted towards the end of your post, it's a riskier & more difficult option to pursue & of the 2 alternatives, I'd rather take the trend continuation route because it offers the least amount of stress & much higher probability of longer term, consistent success.

I've never had reason to look for anything else to be honest. Sure, there are occasions when I have to sit & be patient for the clearer opportunities to come knocking, & I also experience false starts & consecutive losses, but those losses are strictly controlled & eventually more than compensated when the high probability opportunities turn up, sometimes like buses!

However, as the guys have continually reminded everyone - if you manage to find something from the collective material that suits your individual style & risk profile then test it out to ensure it fits comfortably & stick with it.
Everyone is inspired/motivated by different things & we all have to find our own groove.
If that's working for you then continue down that track until it proves otherwise.

[midgely88]

Me neither Justin.
I've gone through the experimental phase before & concluded that this concept is by far the most productive for me personally. There are too many clean opportunities that regularly appear across the entire currency basket not to continue in that vein.

If I was constantly running into brick walls or taking 2 steps forwards & 3 steps back then I'd have to re-evaluate my game plan, but that isn't the case.
I'm a firm believer in the old adage that if something isn't broken it doesn't need fixing.
Good to see you're developing & playing to your own strengths though. I hope it continues positively for you.

[jcpfx]

Thanks guys. I can tell you right now why i things "clicked" all of a sudden:

less mental pressure.

I was finally able to take some pressure off myself and that's when everything started to fall into place. My weak point was psychology, not technical preparation. And that was good to see.

So yeah, i'll press forward with my experimentations and i wish you the best of luck with your trading in 2014

[grantyboy]

Been finding the markets a little difficult the last week or so with certain currencies falling in and out of favour at the drop of a hat such that my watchlist is being modified almost daily. Didnt help that we were trying to buy our first house at the same time. Lol However despite a few careless trades and more losses than wins im controlling the risk so that i'm still breakeven. a nice 40 pip trade this evening on ej from the London open was just what the dr ordered too.

Love this style of trading and planning for one day in 5 or so years I can do it well enough and capitalised enough to do it full time.

[grantyboy]

Discipline good with only 2 trades in last fortnight. Weekend analysis has the following on my watchlist: gbpcad, eurcad, eurjpy and one other that's slipped my mind. Will post a few pics tomorrow about where I'm thinking of potential setups. Hopefully we can get some prevailing good fundamentals from one currency or another.

[grantyboy]

First up GBPCAD, looking for longs above 1.8550 with first resistance at 1.86 then last weeks highs at 1.8655