Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

If you had been prioritizing & filtering your hot list candidates down to ONE stand out pair as previously advised instead of spreading yourself too thin across multiple opportunities you probably would have been in a better position to manage that Aussie trade more efficiently by apportioning appropriate risk & perhaps larger stakes based on the available information at the time.
..

Because unless you have a shed load of money burning a hole in your trading account you can't possibly deploy decent stakes & sensible risk spread across 3 candidates at any one time.

Hey Strobe,

it's quite obvious that my continuous interaction here is still evidence of my lack of consistency with a method that makes a lot of sense to me and which has allowed me to progress in my understanding of pure market dynamics. So from a technical perspective I carefully observe any comments and/or suggestions you and the others here have made (which have proven to be right).

I still have a different view regarding position sizing and diversification. I'm not in a position yet that enables me to have a large strike rate with a large R-multiple in certain conditions, that would give me the statistical evidence necessary to place more money on certain bets than others.
Also, market conditions change and there's really nothing to prevent a class-A setup from falling through. I'm much more cautious from this point of view than you. This is in part due to my lack of experience & consistency, but it's also due to my belief that randomness (or luck) plays a larger role than usually believed when coin-flipping. So unless my blotter starts telling me that something's changed, I'm going to continue to put 0,25% on each trade, and spread out a little (diversification) when a couple of candidates stand out and offer high probability setups. Because it is my belief that as long as the two don't have a strong correlation (positive or negative) then they both have equal probability of success. Once I gain consistency, i'll raise my stake to 0,50% and I'd prefer to be aggressive on the opportunity front rather than from the position size front.

What I will say, is that a fixed watchlist, which enables you to focus on say 15 pairs and understand their particular behaviour, allows for better results. And I also agree on the fact that my background filter is not yet as good as it needs to be.

[jjay]

it's quite obvious that my continuous interaction here is still evidence of my lack of consistency with a method that makes a lot of sense to me and which has allowed me to progress in my understanding of pure market dynamics.

I still have a different view regarding position sizing and diversification.

I understand your desire & preference to diversify, the problem is of course that in your quest for that goal, your quality is suffering.
What's happening is you're forcing triggers into low probability background set ups & merely compounding the issues you're experiencing.

You've admitted yourself on a very regular basis that your primary identification step needs work. Wasting valuable time & resources executing low probability set ups for the sake of diversification isn't going to accelerate your learning process (with this particular approach) at all.
The most damaging aspect of all however is the drag on your confidence that triggering these sub-par set ups is having.

You're getting yourself trapped into a vicious circle.
On the one hand you're seeking consistency & confidence partly by assuming the more opportunities you take, the more familiar you'll become with the approach, but on the other hand your quest for diversification (when the opportunities simply aren't there) is hand cuffing & hampering that objective.

We've mentioned the term compromize quite a few times within the contents of this thread. That's something you're going to need to give some very serious thought to if you're intent on progressing with this type of trading approach.

Ask yourself why none of the other relative novices have appeared to struggle so frustratingly with the combination set ups presented here.
The advice has been very specific surrounding the groundwork preparation for triggering bets & there is a very logical reason for that.

[kyle morgan]

I still have a different view regarding position sizing and diversification.

No-one is suggesting diversification is a bad idea or advising you not to adopt it, quite the contrary. Diversification is a very sensible & appropriate tactic when investing funds. What folks are saying is there isn't always the opportunity to deploy that option trading this particular technical approach.

There are a lot of occasions when only 1 or 2 pairs will flag up the criteria for a higher probability set up.
If you wish to apply a diversification mandate in your regular work plan then perhaps you're going to have to adopt & bring into play a complimentary or alternative strategy or approach that meets or fits that objective & run it alongside this one to assist in achieving that goal.

Using this template & framework as your tactic to utilize a diversified mandate clearly isn't working, & one of the primary reasons for that is the fact not every currency or pairing will highlight a high probability opportunity at the same time.

If something isn't working you have 2 choices.
1) Stop using it & re-assess your work plan.
2) Look elsewhere to achieve that objective in a more efficient & effective manner.

[jcpfx]

Going into today, my homework looked like so:

1) Gbp pairs are generally interesting. GbpCad comes first: best scenario would be a retrace to 1.6600 where I would watch and see if it shows intent on continuing down. The first target would be 1.6510s, then last week's low. GbpJpy is also maintaining the pressure on. I would like to see a retrace to 156.80 but if price breaks last week's low and pulls back, I could try to sneak in a short before the big 154.12/80 area of turbulence.

2) CadJpy: continuing its descent, it held below 94.70s and overnight also consolidated the minor flip in the 94.30s. I had written to myself to attempt shorts whit morning only if price held below 94.30s so I snuck a short in at 94.20 (close to the upper boundary of the 94.10/30 consolidation area) and had minor shakes at the o/n low and now at last week's low.

3) EurGbp line of least resistance is upwards but no setups yet. Watching.

4) EurUsd watching + GbpUsd watching

[round number]

Might be worth revisiting the basics that most take for granted.
I go through this procedure every time a pair gets promoted onto my hot list.

I've hauled these two up only because they're currently reacting on & around a current area of prior S&R, but the other candidates on my hot list (which for the purposes of interest are: audcad, audusd, gbpcad & gbpusd) are annotated with 1 upper & 1 lower area or zone of next potential S&R reaction to assist me in preparing for possible entry, exit or partial profit booking.

The shaded area's on the 15 minute chart (which are also valid for the 5 minute) are obviously my forward entry trigger alerts, which only get actioned in synch with the current directional flow bias, which in the case of these two pairs would be short only on usdchf & long only on eurusd whichever one presented the higher probability opportunity.

It's the same repetitive procedure for every pair each time one of them gets shuffled onto my hot list.

[jcpfx]

Might be worth revisiting the basics that most take for granted.
I go through this procedure every time a pair gets promoted onto my hot list.

I've hauled these two up only because they're currently reacting on & around a current area of prior S&R, but the other candidates on my hot list (which for the purposes of interest are: audcad, audusd, gbpcad & gbpusd) are annotated with 1 upper & 1 lower area or zone of next potential S&R reaction to assist me in preparing for possible entry, exit or partial profit booking.

The shaded area's on the 15 minute chart (which are also valid for the 5 minute) are obviously my forward entry trigger alerts, which only get actioned in synch with the current directional flow bias, which in the case of these two pairs would be short only on usdchf & long only on eurusd whichever one presented the higher probability opportunity.

It's the same repetitive procedure for every pair each time one of them gets shuffled onto my hot list.

Hey RN,

going into today, EurUsd looked like a difficult bet to me. I would have liked to see it straddle 3580s before attempting new longs. It remains on the watchlist but not touching it yet. Of course that's my personal view...

I would like to know your view on AudUsd because I had it on the list until today, but had to take it off after the morning action. I'd like to see it above 9420s before attemtping a long but I guess you would have gotten yourself a good deal trying to pick it up off friday's lows today.

Fwiw I took a short on GbpCad not too long ago, off the 1H inside bar vibrating and closing below 1.6600. Would you have considered this entry?

Thanks & Good luck! And thanks for the recap

[round number]

I would like to know your view on AudUsd because I had it on the list until today, but had to take it off after the morning action.

It's still very much at the top of my long hot list jcp, especially following last Wednesday & Thursday’s bearish rejection price action.
Those 2 bullish day's highlighted below showed (to me anyway) that Aussie was still happy to continue the impulse move following that corrective action during the latter part of September.

I'd like to see it above 9420s before attemtping a long but I guess you would have gotten yourself a good deal trying to pick it up off friday's lows today.

Well, that probably reflects your stance in viewing it from a day trading angle.
I'm always happy to engage using the template framework here providing I can validate & substantiate accompanying reasons to take the bet on, such as this typically common rejection/confirmation behavior which occurs on all timeframes.
More typical rejection/continuation behavior signalling intent to maintain a bullish tone for the time being.

I took a short on GbpCad not too long ago, off the 1H inside bar vibrating and closing below 1.6600.
Would you have considered this entry?

I'm actually still viewing this pair from the long side for now jcp & am waiting to see if it has a mind to flip back into impulse mode around this S&R zone.

From a daily view I see the current price action down off 1.68 as corrective so I'm not in any hurry to short it just yet.
But then I'm not a day trader so my outlook & value will probably differ greatly from yours.
However, if you see merit in moves like that then go right ahead & pick them off. I certainly experience my fair share of miss-timed entries & false shots!

[speedbump]

It's a mirror pattern of events on NZDUSD too, but then that's often the case especially when the markets are moving back & forth in risk on/off unison.

I got unseated last week when it dipped below .8250 & picked it up again this morning for another crack through .8350 & 8430
You're right about the fractal nature of the price behaviour, the same story is revealed right up & down through the timeframe spectrum & if used in tandem with the consistently accurate trigger confirmers, it makes the decision making process a little smoother.

[jcpfx]

With inside days pretty much everywhere, there are some interesting ideas popping up today.

I see no setups as of 8 am CET, but here are my ideas going into london flows:

1)EurUsd + GbpUsd + GbpCad are at the top of my watchlist today. They have formed daily inside bars yesterday bouncing respective s/r levels and are holding up with higher lows into today. So I would like to see either a fade of current day lows in line with the low stochastic on the 1H (as it currently is) or a break and sub-hourly pb on top the o/n highs. This is especially close on GbpCad (1.6600 level).

2) Line of least resistance on Aussie is still upwards but since I missed the value entry yesterday that round number took, I'll stay put until we get a break & hold of yesterday's high.

On the side, I saw strength on the Jpy pairs that broke back above last week's low. This is adding to my "long risk" convinction on the majors and has taken GbpJpy and Cad Jpy continuation shorts out of the picture for the moment.

Anybody have some thoughts to add or corrections to make on my plan for the day?

Thanks and good luck!

[midgely88]

Anybody have some thoughts to add or corrections to make on my plan for the day?

I'm looking at pretty much the same pairs that round number flagged up yesterday in his second post.
gbp v/s usd & cad + aud v/s cad & usd.

As has already been commented, their respective large hourly charts have been the stand out performers during the past few weeks & I haven't seen any reason to look elsewhere for trending/pullback opportunities.