Technical Templates

[whipcrack]

I haven't played much Yen for a while, but if I was tempted to pick it up again any time soon I'd dial into it via the Pound rather than Cad. I much prefer the cyclical action on that chart. But if it offers you a favorable deal then go for it.

I agree, Euro/Dollar is still in the frame as is Sterling v/s the US & Canadian Dollars.
I'm not keen on the Aussie at all on any of its pairings at the moment, so I'll leave that one to you.

[jcpfx]

Thanks for the view Whipcrack. Personally GbpJpy is hard to read at the moment. EurJpy was easier to read, but it already moved quite a lot overnight and there's no value at current levels in my opinion. My EurUsd entry is under pressure at the moment and to be honest I'm starting to expect a stop out.

I would also like to step in on GbpUsd but will only do so around yesterday's low print. It will most likely be an intraday punt if it sets up because the lower highs from yesterday and overnight have me on guard for a stall in this upward move. I also preferred the Euro this morning because of the rotation in EurGbp, currently snapping back and favouring the Euro.

[whipcrack]

I would also like to step in on GbpUsd but will only do so around yesterday's low print. It will most likely be an intraday punt if it sets up because the lower highs from yesterday and overnight have me on guard for a stall in this upward move.

Monday's price action offered the best entry deal on Cable this week.
xerb mentioned that recent S&R zone around the 6120-30 area & if you had that key area plotted on your chart prior to the breakout/pullback action after the weekend you'll see why it offered value betting away from it.

If you revise some of the prior posts on here about executing on & around these S&R areas, particularly when a pair is in a sustained trending cycle, you'll note the comments advising & encouraging readers to try & obtain the value entries when price gets supported & attracts increased bids & offers as they bounce off these important zones.

Those are the lower risk/higher probability levels that will generally offer you keener deals. The risk tends to increase (even on an intraday basis) on moves away from them, especially if the ADR is below par which it is currently across most of the majors.

These prolonged trendy moves don't materialize very often during the annual business cycles which is why it's important to always try to obtain a decent value entry & stay put for as long as you can. It's a lot easier to manage an existing position than it is to constantly weave in & out of these tetchy, sometimes low volume intraday wiggles.

A few years back when the daily ranges were 20 to 30% larger than they are currently, day trading strategies weren't a bad option. But it's a really tough slog in these types of markets. I admire those who can trudge through that swamp every day. You've got way more stamina than me that's for sure

[jcpfx]

If you revise some of the prior posts on here about executing on & around these S&R areas, particularly when a pair is in a sustained trending cycle, you'll note the comments advising & encouraging readers to try & obtain the value entries when price gets supported & attracts increased bids & offers as they bounce off these important zones.

Those are the lower risk/higher probability levels that will generally offer you keener deals. The risk tends to increase (even on an intraday basis) on moves away from them, especially if the ADR is below par which it is currently across most of the majors.

You've got way more stamina than me that's for sure

Yeah, volatility is a lot lower these days and is starting to look like 2012 even if the first quarter of 2013 had seen an impressive uptick in ranges. And I too understand how these range compressions make it more difficult than it normally is to make headway here. Especially for those, like myself, that are in the process of establishing some kind of consistency.

About the stamina...when my results start equating the amount of work thrown into this job, I may take pride for it. But for now, you're probably doing 80% better with 20% of the work, compared to me

[jcpfx]

I agree, Euro/Dollar is still in the frame as is Sterling v/s the US & Canadian Dollars.
I'm not keen on the Aussie at all on any of its pairings at the moment, so I'll leave that one to you.

GbpUsd & GbpCad have retraced to their respective key levels holding up the trends, at 6170s and 6690s respectively. They have also covered their daily range into these supports. Worth a go if it sets up. Sub-hourly triggers ready to be deployed...

[jcpfx]

I agree, Euro/Dollar is still in the frame as is Sterling v/s the US & Canadian Dollars.
I'm not keen on the Aussie at all on any of its pairings at the moment, so I'll leave that one to you.

GbpUsd & GbpCad have retraced to their respective key levels holding up the trends, at 6170s and 6690s respectively. They have also covered their daily range into these supports. Worth a go if it sets up. Sub-hourly triggers ready to be deployed...

AudUsd long triggered at 9406 & CadJpy trotting well below my entry at 94.65. I have broght my stop to par now on that trade. Still waiting for something interesting to pop up on GbpUsd after ISM numbers that should favor more USD losses...

[jcpfx]

I agree, Euro/Dollar is still in the frame as is Sterling v/s the US & Canadian Dollars.
I'm not keen on the Aussie at all on any of its pairings at the moment, so I'll leave that one to you.

GbpUsd & GbpCad have retraced to their respective key levels holding up the trends, at 6170s and 6690s respectively. They have also covered their daily range into these supports. Worth a go if it sets up. Sub-hourly triggers ready to be deployed...

AudUsd long triggered at 9406 & CadJpy trotting well below my entry at 94.65. I have broght my stop to par now on that trade. Still waiting for something interesting to pop up on GbpUsd after ISM numbers that should favor more USD losses...

So..stopped out of Aussie (-0,25%), closed all CadJpy at 94.00 (+0.52%) and I'm definitely feeling more bearish than bullish now on the sterling pairs. No entry given, and key levels faltering...6600 on GbpCad and 6130 on GbpUsd are the next contact zones to watch even if it feels like these pairs are ripe for a trend pause/inversion.

Ah, I had scratched my Euro long at breakeven earlier today so I diddn't benefit from the ISM pop.

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

looks like I placed a sloppy stop loss order on AudUsd yesterday. Putting the order below the day's low instead of the hourly low would have allowed me to benefit from the additional upside into today.

Going into this morning, I've already taken this GbpJpy short after price broke and consolidated below the whole 157.20-60 area.


I'm also waiting for GbpAud to bounce back to the 7190 area to short in line with this trend change:


And less probable, but possible due to the leading structure, is the possible Gold breakout and trend change, after bouncing hard off 1290s and forming an inside day with a higher low. Feeder stake off 1323



Any thoughts?

Thanks and good luck

[strobe]

looks like I placed a sloppy stop loss order on AudUsd yesterday. Putting the order below the day's low instead of the hourly low would have allowed me to benefit from the additional upside into today.

That's why all throughout the thread the guys have constantly repeated & prompted the importance & validity of these common reaction levels & zones such as prior day/week highs & lows etc.

There's a very good reason they've spent an awful lot of time focusing & encouraging people's attention on these easily identifiable levels.
Within trending or cyclical phases if a pair is being well bid or offered, prior day & week highs/lows should stand up to scrutiny. One of the primary reasons being it's where a lot of trailing & exit stops usually congregate therefore it makes more sense to have these defensive zones high up on your awareness radar.

Any thoughts?

Yeah.
If you had been prioritizing & filtering your hot list candidates down to ONE stand out pair as previously advised instead of spreading yourself too thin across multiple opportunities you probably would have been in a better position to manage that Aussie trade more efficiently by apportioning appropriate risk & perhaps larger stakes based on the available information at the time.

So, as a lesson in prioritizing & filtering high probability opportunities, which one of this mornings selection is worth your effort & time today?
Because unless you have a shed load of money burning a hole in your trading account you can't possibly deploy decent stakes & sensible risk spread across 3 candidates at any one time.

[Se7en]

If you had been prioritizing & filtering your hot list candidates down to ONE stand out pair as previously advised instead of spreading yourself too thin across multiple opportunities you probably would have been in a better position to manage that Aussie trade more efficiently by apportioning appropriate risk & perhaps larger stakes based on the available information at the time.

That is an excellent suggestion & sound advice.
The benefits of that tactic will be to sharpen up your primary background identification skills, eliminate the dodgy, low par candidates & encourage you to focus your attention where it actually matters.....on the highest probability pair from a choice of 2 or 3 of the better candidates.

I main candidate + a back up.