Technical Templates

[jack mason]

The BIS has also been highly visible selling eurusd this week at each push toward 1.3800.

I’ve certainly been fortunate in choosing the correct forum to participate in.
You guys deliver straight talking, no bullshit info, unlike most of the other trade forum outlets.

Very interesting comments Jimmy, thank you.
spotfx: I was aware of the London fixing time, but not the other 2, so cheers for that too.

Sorry to keep asking one question after the other, I hope you fella’s don’t get too hacked off with it?!

I presume the BIS is the Bank of International Settlement? If so, are they very active in the FX markets on a regular basis?
Do they operate under their own flag for specific agenda's guys?

[Joe Whitehorse]

Sorry to keep asking one question after the other, I hope you fella’s don’t get too hacked off with it?!

Not at all.
That’s the whole point of interacting on a forum – sharing information & addressing queries. Besides, you're contributing to the thread & discussions in your own right anyhow, so it's not like you're taking without giving back!

I presume the BIS is the Bank of International Settlement? If so, are they very active in the FX markets on a regular basis?
Do they operate under their own flag for specific agenda's guys?

Yes, you’ve identified it correctly.
http://www.bis.org/

Basically, they’re the "Bank" for Central Banks.
One of their purposes is to act & trade on behalf of a particular Central Bank, thus allowing it to remain anonymous or invisible to "other parties", particularly if the CB is engaged in supporting or defending a specific level for it’s own agenda.

They do pop up in the markets quite regularly yes. But then so do the individual sovereign accounts too. It’s simply part & parcel of the normal currency exchange activity that plays out week on week within the market cycle.

[jjay]

Reasonable size in Cable would constitute £100/200 mln, decent +£250 mln.
Conversely, decent volumes across Euro would be well in excess of 5-600 mln.
For instance, there was large sell interest going thru early yesterday morning at c.8790 on eurgbp (+ Cable proxy) from a UK pharmaceutical & heavy industrial supplier totalling +800 million.

Howdy stranger
Does Tess & the other bandits in the office know you’re sneaking out to post on public forums?!

Are Scotty & Art still trading at your joint over there in UK?

[jjay]

Sorry to keep asking one question after the other, I hope you fella’s don’t get too hacked off with it?!

Not at all.
That’s the whole point of interacting on a forum – sharing information & addressing queries. Besides, you're contributing to the thread & discussions in your own right anyhow, so it's not like you're taking without giving back!

Wondered where you'd (also) disappeared to!
Not much going on over at Dee Dee Marshalls site these days then?

I see Daniels is back posting on the subscription side at Global-View....
That must mean "breakouts" must be back in fashion again huh?

[Joe Whitehorse]

Wondered where you'd (also) disappeared to!
Not much going on over at Dee Dee Marshalls site these days then?

Ha ha ha, long time no see jj.

I last looked in there before Xmas. One or two of the old crew are still in situ apparently (scooter, Mannie, Sara etc), but it kinda lost it’s mojo when Garth & Bobby T stopped posting & gave up the ghost.
Dee Dee hiked up the subs too in Jan, so that didn’t go down too well.

I see Daniels is back posting on the subscription side at Global-View....
That must mean "breakouts" must be back in fashion again huh?

I hear on the grapevine that he’s back trading via NewEdge (spot a/c) with Mark Hammond & Carlo Rainer.
They’ll run him ragged & no mistake! I doubt he’s acquired his usual 60/40 split either.

$1k says he’ll be back punting an American account by end of Q1

[jjay]

I last looked in there before Xmas. One or two of the old crew are still in situ apparently (scooter, Mannie, Sara etc), but it kinda lost it’s mojo when Garth & Bobby T stopped posting & gave up the ghost.

Garth still posts up flow & big money clip info + noteworthy activity at key levels, but most of the regular contributors are scarse at best..........for now anyway!

$1k says he’ll be back punting an American account by end of Q1

Judging by the whispers from the guys on the NewEdge desk, it'll be a lot sooner than March end

Any of you fella's tracking that key s&r axis on the eur/gbp this week??
I note it was mentioned on here last month

Selling the rallies (into risk aversion) aiding your momentum strats this week huh?

[goldtop]

Any of you fella's tracking that key s&r axis on the eur/gbp this week??
I note it was mentioned on here last month

Selling the rallies (into risk aversion) aiding your momentum strats this week huh?

Hello jjay,

It came under pressure again on Tuesday & this time held up on the higher lows.

Looks like it’s supported bids today on EURUSD, but I’ve played it, & benefited more efficiently, by betting short on Cable.

As you say, selling into the rallies (eyeing the increased bids on the cross) + greater potential average daily range + the expected 1.5000 options barrier magnet (much touted on the wires) made more sense to bet Cable for me this week.

5 month/4 hour view


2 week/1 hour view

[goldtop]

I got next potential downside fireworks tagged inside this 150 pip s&r channel back from 1st & 2nd quarters of 2009.
It contained some pretty fiery bid & offer action judging by the rejection & subsequent aggressive bullish upkick (highlighted weekly bar).

Might be good for some short timeframe (range) each-way momentum plays on next re-visit!

Daily chart view


Weekly chart view

[JimmyMac]

Howdy stranger
Does Tess & the other bandits in the office know you’re sneaking out to post on public forums?!

Hey yourself
I look in here every so often just to ensure old Joseph isn’t passing on any bad habits!!

Are Scotty & Art still trading at your joint over there in UK?

Yeah, Scott is still over here (he’s on vacation till mid March). Arty comes & goes. He’s running a small spec team for Abe Hyssel, so he bases himself out of our office when he’s in UK.

Jocelyn saw your brother (Matt) at the Barcelona FX gig last year....looks like he's well settled back in the "corporate fold" huh?

[JimmyMac]

.....but I’ve played it, & benefited more efficiently, by betting short on Cable.

As you say, selling into the rallies (eyeing the increased bids on the cross) + greater potential average daily range + the expected 1.5000 options barrier magnet (much touted on the wires) made more sense to bet Cable for me this week.

It’s certainly continuing to trade with a heavy tone Dean, & your ‘shorting strength’ stance has been the smart play last week.

Keep an eye on any uptick push & close above 1.3690 on eurusd next week. That will put a holding wedge underneath this potential short-term double bottom @ 1.3450 for now.
Stops beyond 3700 should pitch it toward 3780 & 3850 if it catches a decent bid & CB’s don’t crap on the party by selling into early week strength.

A lot of this late week spike trade was down to the usual end of week/month book squaring & dead wood clearance.
Intra-day activity (squaring off into the 16.00 fix/London close) was well up on normal levels last week too.

Yen action (via the crosses) will continue to offer good value with Jap fund repatriation (& risk aversion) continuing to play out.

The buck is stretched to its heaviest “long” position since the Lehman chaos according to the IMM stats!
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN261 ... sDollarRpt

ought to be good for a little rebound momentum trade or two guys!