Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

the market sold USD across the board and going into today my only question - given lack of experience - is the following: is it logical to expect retracements after the huge moves seen, or given the fact that it is fundamentally driven is it better to treat this as busines as usual and just wait for the normal setups to appear?

Thanks & Good Luck

[jack mason]

is it logical to expect retracements after the huge moves seen, or given the fact that it is fundamentally driven is it better to treat this as busines as usual and just wait for the normal setups to appear?

How long is a piece of string jcp?

Your own short experience span involving the currency market activity will tell you it's always logical to expect a retracement after any sort of aggressive momentum shift regardless of the trigger. Whether or not it materializes immediately is another thing altogether.
There will be immediate pullbacks/retracements on some pairs whilst others will continue to grind onwards.

Part of the reason for that will be due to the influx of fresh money in those specific currencies, the generic market (risk on/off) sentiment & how the most recent event affects & impacts forward pricing objectives of the institutional & commercial sector directly related to specific regional currencies.

In other words, every scenario is different & can't be measured on prior lookback. Each situation will have very different potential drivers & influences impacting market sentiment & the best you & anyone can do at the retail end is to maintain your usual disciplined approach & wait until the set ups/triggers wave you in.

[jcpfx]

How long is a piece of string jcp?

In other words, every scenario is different & can't be measured on prior lookback. Each situation will have very different potential drivers & influences impacting market sentiment & the best you & anyone can do at the retail end is to maintain your usual disciplined approach & wait until the set ups/triggers wave you in.

Nice I gathered that much, but to me the only stupid questions are the ones that aren't asked

Cheers!

[kyle morgan]

I'll just add....
That whenever you're in doubt simply hang back & wait for price aggregation jcp.
Allow the old & new money to go through the wash cycle, spin itself dry & pick up the slack when the fog clears.

There's no hurry. Cycles & trends will re-engage just as they always do when they're good & ready.

[jcpfx]

And here are a couple of ideas setting up:

UsdJpy has retraced 100 pips all the way back to a resistance zone and is currently stalling. I think there's something wrong with the picture here, as all other Jpy pairs are rising and UsdJpy falling...and I think that 98.50 is a stiff support now so that's my current short term target on the move lower that i'm expecting. The target is over 1R so it's worth a shot.

The other idea is the Bund, that I would like to see retrace to 138.50s and see if it shows any intent of rotating higher.

[jcpfx]

Happy Friday everyone,

well...I diddn't get any clear signal on the Bund so unfortunately i've let it go for now.

Slow markets overnight and I'm still waiting for Cable & AudUsd to touch the respective 1.6000 and 0.9400 where i bet bids are waiting. Even Dax is quite close on my feed, only 25 ticks away from that 8650 level...

I'm thinking that there might not be much out there today because of the German election this sunday. Big players probably don't want to do much ahead of the risk event.

Good Luck going into today!

[shona123]

I'm thinking that there might not be much out there today because of the German election this sunday.
Big players probably don't want to do much ahead of the risk event.
Good Luck going into today!

I would be very surprised indeed if anyone on here were to be considering fresh entries today jcp.
Managing existing bets yes, but as you say there's nothing of interest at the moment.

Keep the powder dry for more appetizing opportunities.

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

the GER elections have confirmed another Merkel-led government and the markets seem ok with that.

This morning there are a couple of things that look good to me.

EurAud is currently at a retracement level that goes from 4300 to 4350s and has started to stall. A 1H 1-2-3 would look good off 1.4373.

GbpUsd is starting to rotate off 1.6000 and if it breaks the o/n highs at 1.6030s I will be looking for an intraday hook to get on board.

AudUsd has already gone quite a fair ways overnight on better than expected chinese data so I will be looking for a pullback to 9400, and if it doesn't pull back today then i'll keep an eye on it into tomorrow.

Good luck to all!

[jcpfx]

EurAud is currently at a retracement level that goes from 4300 to 4350s and has started to stall. A 1H 1-2-3 would look good off 1.4373.

Well that diddn't take long to wash out -_- Not the best start to the week

[jcpfx]

We also have GbpJpy setting up this morning. It's not yet showing the green light to engage but it's stalling on the 4H chart in the 158.20/70 zone so it's high on my watchlist.



I'm just wondering whether EurJpy will assist my decision making process as it has a mirror level at 133.40/prior daily high where i expect a reaction, but still has some space to cover before getting there.