Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

And here is this morning's intraday coin flip on GbpUsd. Trend was still down as I saw it, then closed below o/n low and pulled back. Entry on the 5min 1-2-3 taking a 1.5:1 bet on this one (got out at 1.5050).



The crosses mentioned yesterday are still in retracement mode and thus nothing else to mention right now.

[jcpfx]

NzdCad was setting up but then violated the area (8100/8112) where I would have expected it to rotate down. Will probably be staying still now.




Did anyone/would anyone have done anything different on this? I still need to brush up on those days where price pulls back first before continuing with the trend...

[jcpfx]

Got another reminder this morning that having a position going into important news events is not a good strategy.

I was lured into EurCad which was playing ball technically...but should have resisted the temptation.

[shona123]

NzdCad was setting up but then violated the area (8100/8112) where I would have expected it to rotate down.
Did anyone/would anyone have done anything different on this?
I still need to brush up on those days where price pulls back first before continuing with the trend

I don't have that pair on my list at all at current levels jcp.
It's an ugly looking chart on the large hourlies so I can't help you out regards that specific comment I'm afraid.

Got another reminder this morning that having a position going into important news events is not a good strategy.
I was lured into EurCad, but should have resisted the temptation.

Oh yeah, if you don't want to get caught with your pants down when day trading then it's absolutely imperative you're aware what's playing out on a daily basis especially in periods of lower liquidity such as summer & holidays.

The calendar should your first & last point of call every day.

[jcpfx]

I don't have that pair on my list at all at current levels jcp.

It's an ugly looking chart on the large hourlies so I can't help you out regards that specific comment I'm afraid.

The calendar should your first & last point of call every day.

Hey Shona,

What I meant was that NzdCad had broken the o/n low after a negative close on the day before, in a downtrend. It seemed to be setting up. But the pullback never materialized.
Regarding the calendar, I always look at it. The lesson learnt yesterday was that news affects crosses just as much as majors. What really happened was a lack of discipline on my part. I could have waited until after the news and would have had the exact same setup, with the opposite result.

I still see AudCad, NzdCad, EurAud in respective Down/Down/Up trends and as of today the only possibility is a false breakout to get onboard.
EurUsd & GbpUsd snapped into uptrends yesterday, but I haven't played either of them yet because of data prints. If news is big & solid, then it shouldn't fade right away..and I should be able to climb onboard maybe tomorrow.

[jcpfx]

Good Morning everyone,

trying to get some risk on this morning, and have got into GbpUsd long on the pullback at 1.5230 with a stop below today's low at 1.5190 and target 1.5300. Technically Cable has setup well...lets see.

Also stalking EurAud & GbpAud longs (not yet setup) and that's about it.

Anyone else getting into some trouble?

Good Luck!

[jcpfx]

Hello everyone,

during this low vol period, i've been active doing some other studying as well. I've done many montecarlo simulations on an excel sheet regarding the correct position size that would keep me afloat regardless of the number of consecutive losses that can happen. Speaking to another trader over social media, he admitted that his personal consecutive loss toll was 29 trades in a row.

I was shocked! But he said that it wasn't a big deal for him, because his position size allows for this and much more. So i went into contemplation and came out with the following results:

0,25% to 0,5% is a position size per trade that allows you to stay afloat considering your win/loss ratio is 50-50 and that you make/loose 1R each trade.

Anything over that tends to create a drawdown of over 10% (0,75% per trade) going up to 20% (using 1%, 1,5%) and that's where I stopped the simulations because to me, loosing 20% of your equity is a little too much.

These results make sense to me, because of my personal risk tolerance and experience level (modest).

Anybody do some other studies that they feel like sharing?

[speedbump]

The only record keeping I've conducted is the one relevant to my actual activity.
I'm not a huge fan of these theoretical back/forward testing permutations as they're usually far too rigid & rarely reflect the reality of live personally styled scenarios.

For instance, I don't target 1:1 reward ratios, in fact I don't use targets at all (as recommended by the guys further back in the thread) neither are my bets a standard percentage of my account.

The risk varies with the specific strategy play I'm implementing at the time which includes the background strength & geography of the price action in relation to the set up/trigger combination I'm deploying.

From a standing start via my live account trading this model so far, my longest losing streak is 5, longest winning run is 14 & max draw down currently stands at 5.8%

As you say, everyone's actual results will be very different for the reasons you've touched on, & if you're fortunate enough to ride out the initial roller coaster of finding out what works & what doesn't whilst establishing a solid, flexible framework, then you can count yourself extremely lucky.

[strobe]

The only record keeping I've conducted is the one relevant to my actual activity.
I don't use targets at all neither are my bets a standard percentage of my account.

The risk varies with the specific strategy play I'm implementing at the time which includes the background strength & geography of the price action in relation to the set up/trigger combination I'm deploying.

I use pretty much an identical template to yours.


Apart from those still finding their feet & getting accustomed to the environment, I doubt any of the established guys here will be betting rigid percentile stake sizing.
I know there are one or two who regularly compound their bet sizing which obviously entails a pyramid stacking procedure, but as with everything in life, to each their own.

[jcpfx]

The only record keeping I've conducted is the one relevant to my actual activity.
I'm not a huge fan of these theoretical back/forward testing permutations as they're usually far too rigid & rarely reflect the reality of live personally styled scenarios.

For instance, I don't target 1:1 reward ratios, in fact I don't use targets at all (as recommended by the guys further back in the thread) neither are my bets a standard percentage of my account.

The risk varies with the specific strategy play I'm implementing at the time which includes the background strength & geography of the price action in relation to the set up/trigger combination I'm deploying.

From a standing start via my live account trading this model so far, my longest losing streak is 5, longest winning run is 14 & max draw down currently stands at 5.8%

As you say, everyone's actual results will be very different for the reasons you've touched on, & if you're fortunate enough to ride out the initial roller coaster of finding out what works & what doesn't whilst establishing a solid, flexible framework, then you can count yourself extremely lucky.

Hey Speedbump & Strobe,

as you've said, of course, there's no magic formula and each trader will have his/her own preferences. To clarify why I found this study interesting, it's because of the basic statistical observations of the market. To me, by betting a different bet size each time, you essentially are assuming you know the probabilities of the trade being a winner or looser. Even the other trader I spoke to, who has worked for Caxton Partners, said that over his 30000 trades he believes that the distribution of win/loss is more or less random. The market really can be unexpected when it looks like it will be most dependable. So of course, having very little experience myself, I found this point of view logical.

Even my longes winning streak is 7 and my longest loosing streak is 4 in a row, with a 65% win/loss ratio overall so far. But I haven't even taken 100 trades since completely understanding the model presented here - and in between those trades are my false breakout trades as well. So my statistical sample is almost irrelevant.

Also, the take profit on the simulation was 1:1 because I wanted to simulate trading without any edge. I wanted essentially to see what it took to stay afloat essentially coin-flipping my way through the market. A safety-first way of thinking. Really conservative and adequate for my purposes right now.

But of course, you guys have been in the markets a lot longer than I have and these considerations may be totally irrelevant. I just wanted to share some thoughts

Good luck to any/all that will be trading in August. I will be trading with half my normal risk.