Technical Templates

[shona123]

So to summarise, I will let the market tell me that it has turned rather than speculating that it might to be turning.

That's the core theme on which the whole technical structure of this thread's primary focus is based on grantyboy.

Identify an instrument that's displaying the key elements of directional momentum (a trend) on whichever primary timeframe you wish to view it from & base your decision making on, & continue to execute trades in that direction until the price action tells you otherwise.
If/when the downside strength begins to slow it will be revealed by an unwillingness to print further lower lows on that pair via that timeframe & instead will trade in a contradictory manner ie; forming higher lows & lower highs until the next phase begins to click into gear.

At that point it's generally time to avert attention onto something else that is exhibiting clearer & cleaner trending behavior.

[kyle morgan]

The old (trending) faithful's are still in play & continuing to offer high probability opportunities, with USDCAD kicked back into line last week courtesy of the FOMC chatter & follow through price action.

The pullback reaction (bid & offer) levels are very clear & visible on all 4 pairs so will help to gauge continued momentum strength & individual timeframe entry/risk preference.

[Sarah Foster]

The old (trending) faithful's are still in play & continuing to offer high probability opportunities.
The pullback reaction (bid & offer) levels are very clear & visible on all 4 pairs so will help to gauge continued momentum strength & individual timeframe entry/risk preference.

Indeed they are kyle & one or two of the majors have offered half decent day trade value from the back end of last week (& are continuing to) as they confirmed 2 & 4 hour reversal swing steps, particularly usd/jpy through 95.80, eur/usd through 3250 & cable @5560.

Sub hourly pullback set ups in line with those momentum shifts aren't a bad tactic until the hourly swings begin to slow or fade.

[jcpfx]

Good morning everyone,

I've been working on my background selection and went over a number of trades and things may be comming together. I was glad to open up the FSR thread and see that Kyle had pointed out a couple of the same ideas that I had come up with during my sunday prep session (EurAud long, GbpAud long, UsdCad long and I also had the Bund short, and AudUsd short).

So yesterday morning as GbpAud & EurAud started printing their stair-step motion, I entered on a 1-2-3 which got me in GbpAud at 1.6727 and EurAud at 1.4247 even if I eventually had to scratch the trade 3 hours later keeping a few pips to spare.

GbpAud 4H


GbpAud 1H


So I was first wondering if anyone else attempted that same trade, and secondly I would like some help to decipher today's price action so far. It's a situation that is recurring in my analysis. We are still in the general area of support that has the potential to rotate GbpAud higher, we closed above the intraday flip created around 1.6640 yesterday but at the same time we printed a lower low than where the rotation started yesterday morning.

This general situation (where we are still in the general area where prices could rotate but have failed once already) is tricky and it would be helpful to get some other analysis on it.What my instinct tells me is that since yesterday the market failed to rotate after hitting the zone, then the first thing we need to see would be a break/hold of yesterday's high to have more faith in the move. So I am not currently looking at this situation as a stair-step on the 1H where it's safe to look for sub-hourly entries..but it's still definitely a sensation rather than a qualified situation that I am fully aware of.

Hope this makes sense and someone can shed some light on the situation...

Thanks & GoodLuck to all!

[jack mason]

I would like some help to decipher today's price action so far.
We are still in the general area of support that has the potential to rotate GbpAud higher, we closed above the intraday flip created around 1.6640 yesterday but at the same time we printed a lower low than where the rotation started yesterday morning.

This general situation is tricky and it would be helpful to get some other analysis on it.

Although the trend bias on those two pairs remains bullish, this week's price action thus far is beginning to turn neutral with those lower hourly tops.
The China & far eastern market turmoil isn't helping risk appetite at the moment & it looks like some of that trend money is being parked elsewhere for now.

I got taken out Friday on a trailing profit stop at 1.4250 on eur/aud & haven't re-entered yet.
There was nothing setting up yesterday (or this morning) to tempt me back in therefore I'm flat until I see some determined effort to scale 1.4300 & 1.6800 respectively.

For what it's worth, a couple of Jocelyn's team who have been dipping in & out of those pairs aggressively over the past few weeks have also pared out completely during Friday & early yesterday & are awaiting further developments before re-engaging.

The old motto: if in doubt stay out springs to mind whenever uncertainty or hesitancy begins to cloud your judgement!

[jcpfx]

Although the trend bias on those two pairs remains bullish, this week's price action thus far is beginning to turn neutral with those lower hourly tops.
The China & far eastern market turmoil isn't helping risk appetite at the moment & it looks like some of that trend money is being parked elsewhere for now.

I got taken out Friday on a trailing profit stop at 1.4250 on eur/aud & haven't re-entered yet.
There was nothing setting up yesterday (or this morning) to tempt me back in therefore I'm flat until I see some determined effort to scale 1.4300 & 1.6800 respectively.

For what it's worth, a couple of Jocelyn's team who have been dipping in & out of those pairs aggressively over the past few weeks have also pared out completely during Friday & early yesterday & are awaiting further developments before re-engaging.

The old motto: if in doubt stay out springs to mind whenever uncertainty or hesitancy begins to cloud your judgement!

Thanks Jack for dropping in I underlined a couple of considerations that I need to focus on in order to step up my "foreground" analysis. I'll be stepping back again until I'm able to really understand the structure necessary to re-ingage in line with the trend.

I HAVE TO THANK YOU ALL FOR CONTINUOUSLY POINTING OUT MY BACKGROUND/FOREGROUND WEAKNESS.

Having used the same structure since Q2 2013, I have analyzed my trading blotter and have finally seen what you were looking at. We're all different and I had to personally take a look at the Daily time frame in order for some things to stand out like a sore thumb. Things have since been working a lot better and I finally feel progress flowing through my trade blotter.

Thank you and may the pips be with you!

[kyle morgan]

I agree, prices are flopping around lethargically in early week trade.
I got back into a cad/jpy pullback hook short during yesterday's London afternoon trade as it backed off the overnight highs, looking for sub 91.0
I've moved my stop down today just above the asian highs @93.50 for the very reason Jack mentioned (forming an hourly higher low).

I'd have liked to see it continue down below yesterday's lows this morning & it may well slide later today, but if it hesitates & finds bids I'll take my medicine, stand aside & re-assess.

[jcpfx]

Hey Kyle & Jack,

after going through even more evidence, I seem to have come up with the following observations, to help me evaluate whether the present trading day is ripe for looking for an entry or if it's a day to wait for more information.

Many (i'd say 95%) of the trades seen on here (even kyle'slast contribution) follow 1 of the 2 rules (usually it's rule #1). Any thoughts on these observations would be very much appreciated.

RULE #1: in a pullback on the 1H chart (that violates prior 1H lows) while still within the main trend, as long as price breaks (even without holding) the prior day's high or low overnight or during the day, you can look for a pullback entry. Of course, if price hurdles prior day high/low in line with trend and holds it's ground, then a Breakout/Pullback trigger may come into play or simply a Breakout depending on the structure.

RULE #2: as long as yesterday was still a trending day (so a daily close in line with the trend, without any evident signs of stalling), today you can still look for pullback entries.

Of course, the pullbacks should trigger off of some logical zone of interest and not just in the middle of nowhere. And time of day, available ADR and data print considerations can help in the decision process as well.

Cheers & Good Luck going into End of month/quarter!

[xerb]

after going through even more evidence, I seem to have come up with the following observations...
Many (i'd say 95%) of the trades seen on here follow 1 of the 2 rules (usually it's rule #1).

As you've rightly observed, that situation is going to play out in the majority of occasions simply because of the fluidity of the price action in relation to the momentum of an established trend. But it's not just the prior day high or low that it pertains to, it can also be confidently played in relation to the asian session high-low especially when setting up potential day trade opportunities.

Sarah remarked on Monday that one or two of the majors were throwing up quite acceptable intra-day trading opportunities from late last week & those same observations are true on a couple of set ups this week.
Just scroll back to usd/chf from yesterday through .9345 & eur/usd this morning through 3055 (which was both a tokyo session low & yesterday's low).

Obviously both offered slightly more advantageous risk entries if you triggered via a 5/15min hook play, but nonetheless that scenario you noted is a very common & consistent feature given the type of technical set ups this method focuses on.

[jcpfx]

As you've rightly observed, that situation is going to play out in the majority of occasions simply because of the fluidity of the price action in relation to the momentum of an established trend. But it's not just the prior day high or low that it pertains to, it can also be confidently played in relation to the asian session high-low especially when setting up potential day trade opportunities.

Sarah remarked on Monday that one or two of the majors were throwing up quite acceptable intra-day trading opportunities from late last week & those same observations are true on a couple of set ups this week.
Just scroll back to usd/chf from yesterday through .9345 & eur/usd this morning through 3055 (which was both a tokyo session low & yesterday's low).

Obviously both offered slightly more advantageous risk entries if you triggered via a 5/15min hook play, but nonetheless that scenario you noted is a very common & consistent feature given the type of technical set ups this method focuses on.

Thanks for the info Xerb! It "only" took me up until now to discover it!

I'm glad to see that EurUsd was referenced as an example. I took a stab at the euro today as well. Overnight we broke yesterday's low (1.3064) and pulled back with a lower high. I inserted a stop entry below the o/n low but had to scratch the trade after it gave a 1H false breakout (1H pin in the opposite direction). After the 10-11 CET candle close, I inserted an offer back at 1.3053 with a stop at 1.3083 and a limit at 1.3000 and the trade progressed without hesitation.

My bias for today was also reinforced after the slight false break of monday's highs that happened yesterday. I've noticed that it can add strength to a move when you get false breaks against the trend.