Technical Templates

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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:17 am

Good Day & welcome to monday trading,

I would like to share my coin-tosses from today, knowing that with nothing on the calendar I'm probably the only guy in here triggering this morning.

But, there were at least 2 attempts that I felt were worth noting. The first was a long UsdJpy looking for 100 off of an overnight consolidation & early london hook:

Image

Unfortunately, the low liquidity diddn't help out & I managed the trade closely after a whole morning of going nowhere. I had pulled the stop up below the ascending trendline as I was getting a strong impression that NY would not continue the ascent.

The impression was also confirmed by Euro & Aussie selling off. AudUsd broke friday's low (also last week's low) and pulled back offering a hook to get aboard. I took this trade down to 1.0252 for a 1:1 bet which left me with some change after the UsdJpy scratch.

Image

Nothing much else to note as of now.

Any thoughts would be much appreciated ;-)
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Re: Week Comm Apr 22nd

Postby kipper » Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:47 am

You said it, there's nothing happening out there today to drive the momentum, therefore I'm probably not the only one sitting on his hands.
No real hourly pullback of any note on any of the Yen pairs so far, with small illiquid bars barely turning 30% of their ADR into the mid european session.

AUDCAD broke down through that aforementioned 1.0530 support level & has pulled back, so I'll be tracking that one, but that's about it.
We've only just kicked off, so there's plenty of the week left to go at.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby midgely88 » Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:50 am

jcpfx wrote:I would like to share my coin-tosses from today, knowing that with nothing on the calendar I'm probably the only guy in here triggering this morning.

You weren't alone, I also had a little nibble at dollar/yen off 99.80 this morning, but also scratched it a couple hours later when it flatlined.
I'm with kipper on the audcad set up.
It's looking the likelier of the presented weekend opportunities thus far.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Mon Apr 22, 2013 12:30 pm

Hey Midgely,

thanks for sharing that. The fact that I wasn't the only one on UsdJpy or watching the AudUsd & AudCad is comforting to me.

It's a shame for that UsdJpy, but it's pulled back and as of now is finding bids with a stoch hook that hopefully will hold into tomorrow's open and give us a better shot at 100!

:D
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby Se7en » Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:01 pm

By the virtue of the fact this background framework is so transparent & straightforward to replicate, you're never going to be the only one seeing it unfold jcp, especially when it sets up on weekend highlighted currencies/pairs.
The only thing that will preclude one or more people executing the same pairs at specific levels will be their individual risk factors & the trade objectives (whether it's an intraday or an add-in bet).
jcpfx wrote:It's a shame for that UsdJpy, but it's pulled back and as of now is finding bids with a stoch hook that hopefully will hold into tomorrow's open and give us a better shot at 100!

The current pullback (at the 99.0 level) is more like the type of area & depth to whet the high probability appetitie.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:43 pm

Se7en wrote:The current pullback (at the 99.0 level) is more like the type of area & depth to whet the high probability appetitie.


I agree 8)
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby castor » Tue Apr 23, 2013 1:32 am

Hi guys!

A bit of an off-topic question here that I have.
I have been trading on the longer timeframes for the past months since im holding a full time job. I really like to trade, which is why, I am considering giving up my job to do intraday trading.

Unfortunately, I am not very confident if I can be making enough to cover monthly expenses.My friends would tell me, the only way to find out is to demo trade intraday and see if I am able to do it. But here is the issue,
if I don't give up my job, I will never find the time to test out intraday trading, and I will be forever stuck with that. So it seems to be a vicious cycle.

The reason I brought this up here on this thread is because it seems that there a substantial number of full time intraday traders that hang out on this thread, so I was hoping to get insights from you guys. I tried googling
about this topic, but it seems that I can't get any decent answers to this. Most articles are just over-dramatic people saying traders are doom to die, or how its totally impossible to make any money on the forex market etc.. etc.. or people
claiming that they are making unrealistic returns from intraday trading, which I do not know if they can be trusted.

What I really want to know is, for an intraday trader, what would be an average realistic monthly return % one could expect or rather aim for. I know that this question may sound a bit silly since different people with different techniques and money management strategies will obviously have different results. But I at least do want to get some rough figures, so that I can at least plan for myself, and decide if I can ever hope to cover my expenses as a full time trader with the amount of capital I am able to put in.

Thanks everyone. Hopefully I can get myself to take this first step forward, towards a different career :)
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby jcpfx » Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:12 am

Hello Castor,

for what it's worth, here are my thoughts and they come from my personal experience. Like many other things about trading, don't let anyone tell you it can't be done. But also, don't let anyone tell you it's a piece of cake.

In march 2012, myself & my fiancèe were left without a job and have not been able to find one since - the situation in Italy is quite difficult at the moment. I had traded the markets for a little bit and had been a broker with a boutique fx shop here in Italy for a couple of years before that and even if I had studied indicators and watched price action for that time, I was never put in the position to extract capital from the markets on an onging basis. It was always a sort of "plan B" if all else failed. In March, my fiancèe (which has no financial background, but has a talent for "hand on" jobs like trading, where you learn from experience) and I decided to give it a shot, and our situation was as such:

1) a small retail account with half of my savings in it.
2) No living expenses (we are in the same house as my parents) except for food, cosmetics, gifts, accessories, clothing, etc.
3) We gave ourselves 1 year to get this show on the road, and made a deal with my parents that we would look for any type of job if we failed.

Here is what our pip-count looked like from march 2012 to march 2013. Not a pretty picture, but the turnaround which happened in october 2012 was enough to keep us motivated and to keep my parents interested.

Image

But that image does not take into account the emotional situation we carry with us every day, since we're not out of the woods yet. So consider the following before attempting to trade for a living:

1) how much capital do you have available, that can be used as a cushion while you get your barings? Cut all the excess expenses and give yourself a realistic picture of how long you can last before having to throw in the towel.

2) Does your wife approve? She can help you stay focused and disciplined, or help you get back on your feet when the times get tough if she's a part of the project and not just a spectator.

3) Realistically, the keys to surviving in this environment are consistency & discipline. Finding something that works, like the model presented in this forum, and working it over & over to see if it suits you. It may not, and you may have to find a different approach. That will take more time & capital from you. And emotional fatigue. You must be consistent with an approach, before deciding to trade for a living (i wish I had learned these things earlier, but I was young...)

4) Do not think that your performance will rise by trading intraday. I thought that way too, but finding an intraday approach that works for you is much more difficult than trading daily. The performance is more likely to suffer, rather than benfit, from an intraday approach - unless of course you've already got one and are already trading one.

5) If you're profitable with the daily, why change? Keep your job & keep trading daily! Just increase the size a little.

6) Performance will depend on the risk allocated to each trade, and your trade selection. Which, of course, will depend on the market during each week. Don't expect to get up, turn on the screens, and plug away. In my experience, at least, it doesn't work that way. I have found that the less I trade, and the more i focus on the higher time frames, the more successful i am.

7) Remember that this job is extremely difficult, and you may get very frustrated at times. Do not expect to grow rich doing this, because in my experience, the first year is all about surviving & learning, and then deciding whether it's for you. It's not a job for everyone, just like plumbing or cutting hair or having a bakery.

Myself & my fiancèe really think you should stay very realistic, and at the very least have:

1) a consistent approach
2) a large account balance with your broker, which you should be able to loose without it changing your living standards. The larger your account balance, the less of it you will have to risk per each trade, in order to rake in enough to cover living expenses. If, for example, you have a 10k account, and you need say 1k per month to break even on the expenses, than you need to make a 10% return that month...which is huge. It can be done, of course, but realistically speaking, you would have to double your account over the course of the year just to break even! Match that with a 50k account, where all you need is 2% per month to break even...
3) the emotional stability to do this job
4) a pre-defined amount of time to prove to yourself you can do it (for me & my fiancèe it was 1 year).

How do you know it's for you, even if you're breaking even after a shorter period of time? Well, it's like finding your soulmate: you just know... but you may also find it's like trying to date a supermodel...it may look great from the outside, but when it's you having to put up with her, you may find she's not for you.

Please forgive this enormous rant but it comes from my own experience & I hope it helps put things into perspective.

Good Luck castor!
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby JimmyMac » Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:18 am

castor wrote:A bit of an off-topic question here that I have.
I have been trading on the longer timeframes for the past months since im holding a full time job. I really like to trade, which is why, I am considering giving up my job to do intraday trading.

What I really want to know is, for an intraday trader, what would be an average realistic monthly return % one could expect or rather aim for.

Yeah, it's very much a case of how long is a piece of string castor.
The one crucial element most people heavily underestimate is the immense mental pressure required to maintain a performance level that enables them to generate the necessary income, whilst remaining completely detached when encountering periods of drawdown (which will be a very common theme).

If you don't have an adequate capital safety net, you're going to put an awful lot of pressure on yourself, especially if you haven't experienced this type of environment before.

You have to think along the lines of a traditional business start-up.
If you were opening your own business what type of proven experience do you possess in this field?
What are your success rates when doing the job in a salaried (or part-time) role?
Do you have the necessary living expenditure set aside for a prolonged period enabling you to focus completely on your objectives without worrying about paying bills etc.
Is your broker reputable & can you confidently credit them with the kind of funding necessary to support your business objectives?

Those are just a few of the important criteria you need to be able to address before even beginning to assess the viability of doing this on a full-time basis.
Available capital will be crucial & key to your objectives & desires.

The last time I traded my own funds (1998-2003) I had a little over $1.2mio available + a very comprehensive industry contact base & institutional broker access. But more importantly, I'd done this successfully in a dealer & trader role for 4 previous industry employers.

The 2 guys (whipcrack & spotfx) who are now trading a funding arrangement set up by Andre & Jocelyn both submitted 2 years of evidenced trading records showing consistent, well managed accounts. Neither possessed previous industry experience, but both ran their own businesses.
There are 3 others here currently proofing their broker stats on a weekly basis also seeking larger funding tranches, & the common denominator amongst all 5 are/were the fact they all run very adequately capitalized account balances & submitted similarly strong business & operational plans.

Organization & appropriately funded operations are key to ensuring you hit the ground running in this game. That is of course providing you have the necessary skill sets to match that framework.
Fall short on either of those combinations & you're going to really struggle to survive in this jungle.
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Re: Technical Templates

Postby Carll » Tue Apr 23, 2013 5:04 am

In my somewhat short experience span, exclusive intraday trading isn't a very realistic or sustainable option at all unless you possess a proven, well established approach coupled with a strong, consistent track record spanning a good period of time.

The time factor is necessary to track & process your performance across the differing volatility conditions in order to ensure your approach is robust & flexible enough to withstand the rigours of the market & absorb the ebb & flow of your capital.

Operating an exclusive day trading approach sounds great in theory but it's a very different scenario when your regular income depends on the outcome.
As part of a well-structured & defined strategy (when conditions dictate), it can enhance & support your overall business aims, but don't expect to earn a consistent income from it unless you're extremely experienced, possess very deep pockets & have the ability to diversify your instrument base.

The few guys on here who I've had any sort of regular contact with who only trade their own capital don't trade every day or week.
They trade quite large accounts which enables them to place reasonably large bet sizes, but it's based purely on opportunity risk & cost. Some weeks there are more opportunities than others.
And some weeks there are more losers than winners.

But trading larger accounts with the corresponding bet sizing doesn't force the trader to engage when the conditions or their approach isn't aligned.
A 5% avg monthly return on a £150k account is a hell of a lot different to a 5% return on a £1500 one, both from a psychological, motivational & more importantly, an activity standpoint.
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