Technical Templates

[hawkmoon]

does anyone have a view on GbpAud this morning?
Also EurAud looks ok (but has not set up properly yet).

Sarah beat me to it with the gbp/aud trending comment.
That aggressive drop yesterday would have me hanging fire until I too could witness some determined effort on at least a 15 minute timeframe first.
It hasn't shown any evidence of it so far this morning, but if it does & I can pick up maybe a 5 min hook on a clear trending pullback into fresh intraday highs, that would definitely catch my attention because it would show clear evidence of bid activity above this S&R zone.

eur/aud doesn't interest me at all today given yesterday's & this mornings price action.

[jcpfx]

Sarah beat me to it with the gbp/aud trending comment.
... hanging fire until I too could witness some determined effort on at least a 15 minute timeframe first.
It hasn't shown any evidence of it so far this morning,...

...eur/aud doesn't interest me at all today given yesterday's & this mornings price action.

Turns out you were both right again! I scratched GbpAud which went nowhere even after the UK data was out of the way...and even if I diddn't trade EurAud, i recognize that you were right to not be interested.

So let's talk about Cable: it bounced from the 5240s support zone with 1H+15min hook yesterday evening so I left it alone, wishing for an entry this morning on a hold of the recent low. But today there was no 1H hook available so I just left it alone. But from your comments on GbpAud, maybe Cable would have been better as it was indeed already showing demand off the recent support zone, and having the 1H already cycling up I could jump aboard with a 15Min hook without having to wait for a 1H/15Min combo...or am I complicating the analysis?

Thanks!

[hawkmoon]

Turns out you were both right again! I scratched GbpAud which went nowhere even after the UK data was out of the way...and even if I diddn't trade EurAud, i recognize that you were right to not be interested.

It's not that we were right or wrong jcp, it's the fact that price has to show us clear evidence of wanting to click back into dominant trend mode (via the smaller trigger frames first) before we'll commit money to it.
Although the background picture remains dominantly bullish, the foreground price action wasn't mirroring that bias yet.
So in my book entering without confirmation of secondary timeframe trending activity is akin to picking tops & bottoms.

So let's talk about Cable:
there was no 1H hook available so I just left it alone. But from your comments on GbpAud, maybe Cable would have been better as it was indeed already showing demand off the recent support zone, and having the 1H already cycling up I could jump aboard with a 15Min hook without having to wait for a 1H/15Min combo

...or am I complicating the analysis?

I think maybe it's still a case of filtering your pairs into higher or lower probability mode.
Yen is displaying much higher probability for this type of approach than Cable so far this week.
If you compare gbp/usd to eur/usd over the past 4 or 5 trading sessions via a 1 hour chart which one is currently offering the cleaner trending potential?

I'd much rather focus my efforts on legging into pullback opportunities with something already exhibiting strong primary trending behavior, but as ever we all see things differently based on our risk appetite, preferred style & trading objectives.

[jcpfx]

Hey there Hawkmoon,

thanks for the reply! I agree that EurUsd was moving with a clear stair step motion on the 4H AND 1H charts, but the pullbacks were not deep enough to give a 1H hook + 15Min hook. Plus, I already pushed it yesterday buying EurUsd without the double stoch combo

I understand well that if both the 4H & 1H are above the SMA and both trending upwards, it's a higher probability bet. But in that case, only a 5Min or maybe 15Min hook or 1-2-3 would be required...i think I need to study this more

If you did get into the EurUsd today, than good job and enjoy those hard-earned pips

[visualxray]

I understand well that if both the 4H & 1H are both trending upwards, it's a higher probability bet.
in that case, only a 5Min or maybe 15Min hook or 1-2-3 would be required...

That's all you really need to do in those circumstances.
It doesn't require any more detailed or in-depth planning than that.

When the hourlies are trending strongly or forming clear stair-step price action you'll know where the nearest violation level is.
In those conditions all you need is your 5 and/or 15min timeframe open & wait for high prob hooks (or your preferred trigger) to set up in the direction of the hourly trend.

Obviously those situations & circumstances aren't going to set up every day, but the point of the exercise is to only get involved when the conditions are favourable anyway, thus mitigating the lower probability scenarios.

[jcpfx]

I understand well that if both the 4H & 1H are both trending upwards, it's a higher probability bet.
in that case, only a 5Min or maybe 15Min hook or 1-2-3 would be required...

That's all you really need to do in those circumstances.
It doesn't require any more detailed or in-depth planning than that.

/quote]

Hard to believe that, over 1 year into the markets full time, I was still over complicating things. But it's the truth...

Thanks Visualxray, Hawkmoon, etc. for the support

FWIW, tomorrow will have me focused on Euro, Cable, Aussie, AudJpy, EurCad...lets see which one looks better in the morning...

[jcpfx]

Good Morning,

light calendar today, and many may be squaring off positions ahead of FOMC, even though the content of FOMC is outdated (doesn't reflect the recent NFP data) and hence it's probably less important than usual.

Taking note of a possible lack of participation today, I selected GbpUsd for a coin flip this morning and took the 15Min hook at 8.15 CET and lets see if we can challenge o/n highs...

Aussie is also moving well this morning.

[2Taps]

I haven't done any intraday stuff at all so far this month mainly because the trending activity in EURUSD & AUDJPY has been very orderly.
Unless the trend sequence unseats me then there's really no reason to abandon the bet.

But if I'd been seeking a little intraday action I'd certainly be eyeing the major european pairs such as GBPUSD & EURUSD.
USDCHF has also broken through a strong support base @ .9380 this week offering up a couple of decent (60 & 15m) hook entries, so there appears to be a good selection of bets to leg into both from an intraday & add-in perspective.

I hope the Cable bet returns a profit for you jcp!

[jcpfx]

Thanks 2Taps. I agree that EurUsd has been moving well, but until yesterday (unbelievable) i was still overcomplicating things. So I wasn't able to step in and hold.

Cable did work this morning, and I'm out at 5340. I also entered EurUsd after the 8-9 CET IB and I'm out @3107.

Good Luck to all today!

[jcpfx]

Good Afternoon,

boy am I embarrassed...
Let's just hope that the magic "hit me" and I don't loose this feel for the markets. After the exchange from a few days ago,
I went back into my personal records, and also into some trades posted on here and the equation that came out was simply:

"4H clean trend + 1H clean trend = 15Min pullback hook or 1-2-3 entry with available ADR for starters"
"4H clean trend but 1H not yet decided = 1H pullback hook or 1-2-3 entry"

This morning I put it into practice again at 8.15 CET on Cable & 8.30 CET on NzdUsd.

Simplicity...

Thanks for all your efforts at getting me to simplify my view.