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[jcpfx]

Good Day traders,

quiet week so far here in Little Italy...FX still probably waiting for Central Banks...and the only opportunity I took was an intraday short on EurNzd today.

Things should pick up from today to friday though...

[jack mason]

Interest rate releases usually stimulate a little activity.
Get those out the way & we then roll into the NFP for a bit more end of week volatility.

USD/CAD & USD/CHF both obliged yesterday & today with 60min/15min pullback hooks into european trade for those so inclined.
Similar picture on EUR/USD too for those patiently waiting for the higher probability short stance to click into place.

[midgely88]

Yen is vying for attention next week & I'll be on the lookout for a selection of high probability pullback/continuation set up opportunities to short it across the board if the established hourly trending action continues on that currency.

I'm sure I'm not the only one here to have also identified the US Dollar as another priority candidate for the same set up/trigger combinations, particularly v/s Kiwi, Euro, Sterling & Swiss.

Heading the continuation longs next week are:
usd/cad – a break below 1.0210 will violate that view......

As far as I'm concerned the level that se7en highlighted last weekend on usdcad is still a valid tipping point for continuation longs & I'll continue to bet that direction providing it stays above 0210 & offers the usual set ups.

[jcpfx]

Hey there Midgely,

I agree that the Jpy is a very attractive short going into next week. To me, UsdJpy & CadJpy are the ones looking the best so far as long as they remain above 94,75/95,00 and 92/92,30 respectively. Also, GbpUsd & NzdUsd shorts are looking good below 1.5050 and 8250/8300 respectively. If you are so inclined, maybe GbpCad could attract some attention if it remains offered below 1.5440/1.5500.

I disagree however on UsdCad. I would like to see it break 1.0310s and form a higher 4H low before re-ingaging long bets. But that's probably due to my lack of experience and need of a more evident price structure before engaging.

Good luck to all, and have a relaxing weekend!

[hawkmoon]

I disagree however on UsdCad. I would like to see it break 1.0310s and form a higher 4H low before re-ingaging long bets. But that's probably due to my lack of experience and need of a more evident price structure before engaging.

No harm in having a different perspective jcp.
Everyone plays them as they see them based on their own tolerances.

There will likely be cleaner opportunities than usdcad next week if it gets stuck in the mud up at current levels & the Dollar & Yen pick up where they left off last week

[jcpfx]

Good morning everyone,

so far nothing much happening in FX...consolidation in the more interesting Jpy & Usd pairs and at this point i'm hoping that the Cable will start the party in a while.

I have already scratched a Kiwi short this morning, loosing a spread, but the setup wwas looking ok so I tried it. The thing that had me be cautious was that the stochastics were both (on 1H and 15Min) a little on the downside. So hardly any harm done there.


I scratched the short on the close of the 15Min pin...I don't like my odds when I get a pin against me right after starting the trade..plus stochastics were low.

I think I'm starting to appreciate the stochastics more...

[xerb]

I've found that quite often the monday after NFP is pretty much a non event jcp.
The market takes a little while to shake off the hangover, particularly if prices have been jerked around into friday's NY trade.

I don't see much on the radar to get excited about this morning so far either.
No doubt they'll be one or two tasty nibbles to bite into as the week progresses. In the meantime......patience is the best hangover cure!

[jcpfx]

Hey Xerb,

thanks for the comment. Today there was actually a better setup on GbpUsd that I tried to play, and I'm actually wondering about your thoughts there.
The fact is, the 1H stoch started hooking down, and on the 15min chart a 1-2-3 formed between 9 am CET and 10 am CET...but the 15min stochastic was already way oversold so I actually scratched this idea. And it would have been a nice trade, going to target at last week's low.

I guess what's really bugging me is that I feel I can't properly use the stochastic yet... Without it, I would have been looking at 4960/80 for a short upon retest, whereas with it, I was alerted to look for shorts off 4940s this morning...

I don't know if any of this makes sense...

Thanks!

[xerb]

Thing is jcp, the stochastic isn't being used as an overbought or oversold indicator with this specific set up/trigger combination.
It's simply there to draw your attention & focus in on potential continuation moves after a pullback in price.

To that end, if a price action trigger looks like setting up at a satisfactory level, the only decision remaining is whether you can justify the risk (appropriate stop-loss placement) in relation to checking out the forward profit potential.

Similar opportunities presented themselves around the same time this morning on eur/usd & usd/cad too. The former is running to stand still at current levels & has yet to engage any kind of downward momentum & the usd/cad, although moving in the right direction, is sluggish on the approach to the overnight highs at 1.03

In my experience as long as you're executing with sound background (primary) structure, the odds are significantly improved for both positive & negative outcomes when using the hook and/or simple 1-2-3 engagement tactics.
Set ups that move efficiently (as gbp/usd is this morning) through the gears will usually return very acceptable profits for the risk outlay.
Other times when the momentum fades or dies you will usually get the opportunity to scratch or exit with minimal damage allowing you to keep your powder dry & intact for the next opportunity.

[jcpfx]

Understood Xerb,

that clears things up a lot more for me. Thank you for the explanation. I'm getting back to my charts now, to examine the setups a little more (i.e. less?!) in detail.

Good luck for your own trades today.