Technical Templates

[hawkmoon]

Ok, first I suggest we immediately drop the use of the terms bias & cycle as they appear to be the source of much confusion here lately.
From this post on can everyone please use only the term trend/trending.
At least that should clear up any misunderstanding & is very easily identifiable on any individual timeframe one chooses to observe it from.

i thought 1.3300 was a very important level. Would you not agree that if price remains above 1.3300 the picture is more bullish?

If the information you've collated influences you to take a bullish view at 1.33, then that's what you need to do.
Evidence (based on the material we use here) suggests I wait for further signs that the current down trend on the hourlies is exhausted & that won't be confirmed until at least today's high is taken out & supported by a higher low.

And maybe a more direct question: on your 4h and 1h time frames, when does a cycle change become a change of trend?

A trend ceases to be when price fails to print a higher high in an uptrend & is confirmed when the last higher low is violated.
Vice versa for downtrend.

[Ilary]

Thank you Jcpfx and Hawkmoon for the help,

I agree, this clarification has been very interesting and important using the EurUsd case as an example.

Have a good weekend!

[jcpfx]

Good Morning,

I evidently still have some difficulties selecting the right battles. Anyone care to comment on GbpAud this morning?
It should have been a continuation short below the recent flip...but instead turned into a continuation stop


4H


15Min > just stopped out...

[Se7en]

How do you filter & select your pairs jcp?
I was exchanging comments with midge & kyle over the weekend & 2 out of 3 of us had usd/cad, aud/cad & gbp/usd as the top 3 possibilities going into this weeks activity.
I do have gbp/aud on my list, but along with aud/jpy it's down at the bottom of that 5 pair list.

Comparing the 4 hour technical behavior of aud/cad & usd/cad with gbp/aud over the past week & a half, which 2 of those 3 appear smoother & trendier to you?

[jcpfx]

Morning Se7en,

UsdCad is on the top of my list as well obviously to the long side and given today's action, I'm waiting either for a retrace to 1.0012 OR some space above yesterday's high + a retrace (don't feel like getting into a 1-2-3 upon the direct break of the high with a high 15min stochastic reading..).

The others that were on my list were GbpUsd to the downside, Gold to the downside...then EurNzd interesting but not yet ripe, GbpNzd similar to GbpAud but not as ripe, EurCad similar to UsdCad but until this morning was not convincing with Euro still lateral.

Don't usually watch AudCad or other exotics as my broker only lets me put 20 pairs at a time on the feed.

[midgely88]

Don't usually watch AudCad or other exotics as my broker only lets me put 20 pairs at a time on the feed.

I don't "watch" any specific pair or pairs jcp.
I have 8 seperate profiles set up on my charting package, each with 7 pairings on each screen/profile comprizing the main currencies:
USD
GBP
EUR
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF

All the charts throughout the profiles are set to a 4 hour timeframe default with the 60sma as a quick-fire heads up.
I simply scroll through each profile twice each day, which takes me no more than 10 mins, & identify those pairs which are displaying the higher probability tendancies we regularly comment on here.
It doesn't take long to visually filter them.

I can also quickly scroll to a currency that is performing strongly across the board & match it up with an underperforming currency to see whether its offering me a likely trade opportunity.

Once I've flagged up those higher probability pairs I jot them down, scroll to my blank working profile, pop into the menu & drop the likely candidates into the watchlist.
All it takes then is to arrange them in priority & I'm ready to trigger an entry as soon as one of them offers me an appropriate signal.
I then log into my broker platform, drag & drop the tickets onto my screen ready to trigger any of the focus pairs as they come into view.
Those trade tickets get chopped & changed as my pairs zoom in & out of technical focus.

I conduct a sweep of the 8 profiles each day & update my priority pairs as required.
I don't have any particular favourites. I'm only interested in those pairs that are setting up with a potentially positive hourly trend so I can filter it into a higher probability secondary/lower timeframe trade opportunity.

This exercise has been mentioned & recommended numerous times throughout the thread.
When you think about it, it makes perfect sense to be focusing time & effort on higher probability set ups rather than hanging around waiting for a select few pairs to make a move.

[xerb]

Anyone care to comment on GbpAud this morning?
It should have been a continuation short below the recent flip...but instead turned into a continuation stop

I can't make out any details on those charts at all jcp, what price did you enter & where were you stopped out?

That's a pretty smart set up midge which about covers most all eventualities.

[jcpfx]

Hello Midgely & Xerb,

the way I have been working of late is:

1) Try to understand if the market is focusing on something in particular (fundamental flavour if you will)

2) Charting layout: 4 main tabs (EurUsd/EurChf/EurJpy/EurGbp) (GbpUsd/GbpChf/GbpJpy/EurGbp) (UsdCad/UsdChf/UsdJpy/UsdCad) (UsdJpy/ChfJpy/AudJpy/GbpJpy) so I can see whether the market is focusing on one of the majors or on a predominant theme (i.e. usually all Euros will go in the same general direction if the market is focusing on the euro for some reason)

3) Cross Tabs: EurNzd, EurAud, GbpNzd,GbpAud (large ADR) + NzdJpy + AudJpy +XauUsd + Crude

Reminding myself that I like to go to bed flat as a pancake (even if recently my coin tosses haven't been great so I'm usually going to bed flat, even if with a sore head from getting stopped out ) the ADR is important for my personal objectives.

Then ==> don't waste time on pairs that are not moving well or that have "just" changed trend in my view (i.e. EurCad going into today) and examine the 4H charts of those pairs that are moving well. So the 4H is my primary TF.

Then there can be basically 2 scenarios: either the pair is moving counter trend and I'm expecting a pullback 4h/15min hook scenario OR the pair is still well bid/offered than I'll be looking for continuation 1-2-3s with stoch hook on the 15min chart (GbpAud today).

Thats about it for the selection & game plan.

Regarding the GbpAud trade this morning Xerb, it turns out I got stopped out and the market was only creating a spike right in the last 2 mins of the 15min candle there...it has now gone to reach my first target at 1.4940 (65% of the 40Day ATR). I had entered here:

[xerb]

Regarding the GbpAud trade this morning Xerb, it turns out I got stopped out and the market was only creating a spike right in the last 2 mins of the 15min candle there...

Yeah I thought there was something a bit strange about that because I couldn't see a kickback against the flow on that pair this morning, certainly not beyond the Tokyo high.

That's a mighty tight stop loss especially with a pair that includes the british pound.
That cross is currently running an average (1 month) daily range of 125 pips & change, so can handle a little bit of slack when you catch a half decent entry jcp.

[jcpfx]

Well...the rationale about my stop placement has been the same for some time...if the market is going to go your way, it should not breach the recent cycle movement on the execution time frame. Putting a stop all the way at the tokyo high is quite far away...

How do you administer your initial stop loss?

Thanks.