Technical Templates

[jcpfx]

Kipper, Strobe, Eidriel,

it's comforting to know that you too have had to adapt some concepts to your own style. I think this comes with confidence, which in turn can come from applying the same type of rules over & over and keeping a diary of the outcomes & conditions. Here is my own arsenal, which is what I've come into this week with:

1) "High Prob. Trades" ==> essentially coin flips that must be in line with 4H bias (which for me is the DAILY CYCLE), and then I must wait for the 1H cycle to rotate in the same direction. If the 1H cycle is bouncing off a prior sup/res then it will be a 1-2-3 type entry on the 1H (cable, this morning) If, instead, the cycle is already under way, it will be a 15min pin/hook on a retracement that doesn't violate the 1H cycle (audusd, still waiting for it).

Today I am waiting for EurGbp to turn it's 1H cycle in the 8500/40 area in line with the Daily cycle.

EurGbp Daily


EurGbp 1H

2) "Fade trades" ==> essentially coin flips off pins & extended intraday move such as Cable & Aussie & even EurGbp today...except that while EurGbp will be a pro-trend move, I want the right setup; AudUsd doesn't really move a lot and I'm still waiting for a pro-trend continuation short in the 1.0300s; so the only fade candidate is Cable which does tend to "bounce" if it wants to.

Eidriel is right in assuming I risk less on these trades.

Cable, as noted above:


Cable daily, still down even if it's not picture perfect


Cable 1H


AudUsd Daily


AudUsd 1H
The 1-2-3 happened overnight so I woke up to Aussie already in the downward cycle on the 1H and now need to wait for the retrace + 15min pin/hook

Any feedback on the selection of pairs, and the ideas behind the setups, would be more than welcome.

...by the way: did anyone here know that a Pope could resign?!

[shona123]

Any feedback on the selection of pairs would be more than welcome.

I'm still looking to short Yen on pullbacks v/s the clearest of trading partners jcp.
Long USD/CAD has been right up there on my hit list too since it popped back above parity on Friday too.

[zilly]

JPY is continuing to offer good opportunities.
I'm lining up longs in eur/aud again too if it continues to get supported above 1.2920-50.
Short aud/nzd again this week looks a likely prospect.

Those will keep me busy enough this week/month jcp.

[Eidriel]

Hi jcp!

Nice daily with 1h combo you have there

I'm guessing you will no longer be trading intraday and will tend to hold trades overnight
With the use of that timeframe combination?

I've tried trading daily cycles before and notice they have less cycle violation tendencies.
The disadvantage would be the requirement to place a larger stop loss though when compared to the
Smaller timeframes, which sometimes really put a restriction to position sizing.

I hope you enjoy your new timeframe combination!

[Ilary]

Good Day,

I discovered this forum recently and signed up because i would like to compare my experience with some of you.
Looking at your charts & analysis, you seem to be very good traders & this thread seems to be serious. I enjoy this environment.

So, down to business.

I started to work on the forex market 6 months ago, and I studied various tecnical elements as I discovered them, like high/low prints, flips, demand/supply levels, breakouts, moving averages, bollinger bands, signal candles like dojs & pinocchio bars.

Three months ago I started to have a creare picture on Time Frames, trends & cycles.

I always wanted to believe that the forex market has a logic to it, and I looked for a method that would allow me to understand this logic…because I don’t think you can work following someone else’s method.

I use the Daily TF to understand the trend, the market cycles, levels, flips & to create my strategy.
At this point, I move to the 4H because I prefer to work intraday and manage my trades intraday. So I look for confirmation on the 4H of what I’ve seen on the Daily, and I use the 1H and 15Min as close ups to look for entries and manage the trade.

For example, I’m watching EurUsd: we are coming from a downwards movement (red arrow), while the recent cycle (green) has inverted the trend and we are currently in an uptrend after breaking 1.3300. The retest of this level (happening today) will confirm/deny the continuation of this trend and I will be watching for signal candles or 1-2-3s on the 1H and 15Min to take a long entry.

With this said, in the past on the Daily I have seen “congestion areas” right around 1.3300 that are warning me about the possibility of the market going lateral.
Could I have your opinion on this view?

Thank you.

[hawkmoon]

I’m watching EurUsd: while the recent cycle (green) has inverted the trend and we are currently in an uptrend after breaking 1.3300.

Hi,
I think you mean we're in a downtrend don't you?

Market bias, even on the daily chart has just today violated the current lower cycle low at 1.3350, which also to all intents & purposes, represents the current bias violation on the 240m chart too. It's also last week's low print.

Going into today's action 1.3425 was the current 60m violation level & that collapsed during the early Tokyo session.
After that area failed to attract a bid, it was all downhill emphasized by the bearish sub-hourly cycle into european morning trade.

For the time being, until more information is available 1.3425 is the line in the sand between bulls & bears.
Short below & only considering long above if/when a bullish hourly cycle is established.

[Ilary]

Thank you hawkmoon, maybe i was concentrating too much on a large time frame...
i think i have understood how the market creates cycles and trends, and on the 4h and 1h charts EurUsd is in a downtrend now, but i thought 1.3300 was a very important level. Would you not agree that if price remains above 1.3300 the picture is more bullish?

And maybe a more direct question: on your 4h and 1h time frames, when does a cycle change become a change of trend?

Thank you very much.

[speedbump]

llary,
Do you understand the reasonings behind hawkmoon's post & the structure by which he explained that situation?
It's a solidy repetitive framework that although doesn't always offer the desired outcome (what does?), ensures you're viewing the market from the higher probability angle when analyzing it using the available, current technical information.

[Ilary]

Thank you speedbump for the answer, I think I have understood the concept. I know that there is no way to constantly win. But since you have more experience than me, I was interested in going deeper into your reasoning. I have read your posts but I would have liked to interact in a more direct way, and used this 1.3300 level as the basis to bounce some ideas around.

[jcpfx]

Thank you hawkmoon, maybe i was concentrating too much on a large time frame...
i think i have understood how the market creates cycles and trends, and on the 4h and 1h charts EurUsd is in a downtrend now, but i thought 1.3300 was a very important level. Would you not agree that if price remains above 1.3300 the picture is more bullish?

And maybe a more direct question: on your 4h and 1h time frames, when does a cycle change become a change of trend?

Thank you very much.

Ilary,

welcome to the 3d. Take my considerations with a grain of salt, as I am still a newbie..but maybe I can clarify a couple of things.
The method that is being adopted here is a multi fime frame method. And the focus has been constantly on finding an approach
that is a decent trade-off between macro views (daily & weelky) and micro views (1H-5Min). It seems that you are focusing instead on
a daily approach. There is nothing wrong with that, as long as your risk tolerance & objectives comply with that view.

From a Daily approach, the 1.3270/1.3300 area is a recent flip and is an important zone. Also, the Daily stochastic is in oversold territory
already, so it very well may find some support here. The point is that the level may hold decent bids and price may push off...but the level may
not be so strong and price may fall through. As has been said to me various times, it's important to trade the "reaction" off the zones, and not
trade the zone blindly.

Price also is cycling down on the daily chart into this zone...and of course on the smaller time frames (4H & 1H) the actual bias has already changed and
those time frames are pointing down. Price may indeed react at 1.3300 but what hawkmoon & speedbump are pointing at is that currently price is being offered into that level with force.

I hope this helps...