"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the US dollar was able to compensate only some of the lost positions. The dollar was supported by the US economic data – the US July retail sales suggested that the US economy is reviving; it brings the Fed monetary policy tightening beginning. According to the Commerce Department, the volume sales rose up by 0.6% in July. The messages about the jobless claims were less optimistic - 274 thousand when it was expected 270 thousand, still it slightly disappointed traders.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the long positions profit taking after the week uptrend. Investors focused their attention on the Euro zone GDP and its leading countries preliminary data. The forecasts assumed that the main economic indicator will grow by 0.4% q/q and 1.3% y/y after a 0.4% m/m, 1.0% y/y in the first quarter.

By the end of the day the sterling slightly increased. Earlier the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the "black gold" market sales. The British currency is traditionally very sensitive to the Brent oil quotations changes.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the global equity markets correction which put pressure on the "safe haven" yen. Nevertheless, the pair showed a decrease by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors' attention is drawn to the euro zone second quarter GDP publication. The Germany economic growth accelerated amid the exports’ increase, but the France GDP remained in the flat, such differences pose a threat to the sustainable recovery prospects. The German GDP rose up by 0.4% compared with the previous quarter, the forecast was 0.5% and its growth amounted to 1.8% in annual terms. The German economy rose up by 0.3% q/q in the first quarter.

The corrective weakness, formed by the resistance level of 1.1150, has reversed upwards. The signal for the reversal was the resistance level of 1.1150 retesting. The trades closed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is cosolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1150 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1260, further then towards 1.1420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

At the end of the day the US and the UK 10 years government bond yields reached the maximum level the last trading week which is a "bearish" factor for the British currency.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week report will show the total “pure” position dramatic decrease for the pound sales.

A little before reaching the resistance level of 1.5670, the pound upward trend was reversed for the short-term correction. After a short-term consolidation the pair grew again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and Japan government bond yields are increasing that is a "bullish" factor for the dollar as it increases the US assets attractiveness for institutional investors.

The world leading stock exchanges capital inflow forces traders to increase the carry trade operations through the Japanese yen as a funding currency. In this context, the yen will be under pressure that will have positive impact on the US dollar.

The upward trend within the Japanese yen was sharply reversed downwards, breaking through on its way the strong support level of 124.30. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing a role of the resistance level. There was a continuous consolidation formed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 122.40 testing soon. The level of 122.40 may lead to the price consolidation.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

It was expected that the US statistics would show the all published indicators positive dynamics. The July producer price index (PPI) was supposed to show a slowdown, still with the month growth by + 0.1% m/m after a 0.4% m/m in June, the industrial production release in the same month was expected with increase by 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in June and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary index was expected with an increase over the August last period to the level of 94.0 from the previous level of 93.3.

The US dollar consolidated in the pair with the Swiss franc after its decline to the support near 0.9750. Earlier the pair rebounded from the resistance level of 0.9850.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 0.9750. After fixing below the first target, the level 0.9650 will become the next one. The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional movement in the currency market. The chief troublemaker was the China Central Bank, it did not give any reason for the emotions surge and set the daily yuan fixing against the dollar almost without changes compared with the previous day, it has made it clear that the bank keeps to its stabilization promises.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the weak France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP data. The Eurozone and its major countries GDP assessment showed a growth, but it was worse than forecasted. The euro was supported by the Greece policy information plan.

the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields decline. In addition, the impression was caused by the UK controversial employment report somewhat blunted and the pound rose up against the US dollar in the news absence that can add negativity. However the pair’s growth was short-term and the pair fell by the end of the day.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the investors escape from the carry trade transactions which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The Japan stock market has declined that slightly increased interest to the yen, the US shares increase allowed the dollar only to neutralize some of the losses.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EU published its June trade balance. The data came out at the level of 26.4B.

The German 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US, UK and Australian counterparts, making European assets less attractive to investors.

The resistance level of 1.1150 was tested twice last week. The repeated level of 1.1130 testing was followed by the active prices decline with the following bullish trend reversal. The pair is trading around the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The June UK weak labor market raise doubts on the monetary tightening prospects by the Bank of England in 2016. The UK unemployment rate in the second quarter rose up by 0.1% while the US unemployment rate has decreased by 0.2%.

The September USA rate hike expectations are intensified amid the positive economic data. In addition, the dollar is supported by the oil prices decline.

The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the pair rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidation around the support level of 1.5550 further on we expect a growth to 1.5670, 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The second quarter Japan GDP preliminary data showed -0.4% q/q vs. 1.1% q/q in the first quarter and the forecast was -0.5% q/q. These messages did not evoke any emotions in the market.

On Wednesday the Japan foreign trade assessment will be presented - it is expected the exports increase and the imports reduction which is able to bring the trade balance deficit to the minimum.

The level of 124.30 breakthrough was followed by the reversal level testing. Now this mark acts as a strong support where the continuous consolidation was formed.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the support level of 124.30. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 123.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar enjoyed a moderate demand - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 96.83. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Brent oil decrease which in its turn reduced the euro area inflation expectations. The pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the UK and the US bond yields increase. The pair USD/JPY has strengthened after the Japan GDP weak data output. The economic growth fell by 0.4% in the second quarter.

There was important statistics published. The UK consumer price inflation rose up by 0.1% in July compared to 0.0% in June and it was forecasted 0.0%. The United States published the building permits volume report for July at the level of 1.119 M (the previous value was 1.337M; it was forecasted 1.232M).

Investors should pay attention to the fact that the situation with the US federal budget deficit continues to improve year by year. The United States are fully committed to the budget deficit reduction. By the end of the financial year 2014/2015 is one month and a half. Over the past ten months the US budget deficit (seasonally correcting) has been $428 billion from October to July inclusively against $460 billion in the same period last year (-7% y/y). It is a supporting factor for the US dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell against the US dollar. Earlier there was the US and Germany 10-year bond yields reduction which is a positive factor for the single European currency. It was indicated the price moderate growth as the oil "bearish" trend does not allow the EUR/USD "bulls" to rise too high.

Sellers have rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1150, thus opening the way for the level of 1.1050 testing. The downward correction is not supported by volumes and it is developing amid the weak volatility. However the bears broke through the level of 1.1050 downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 1.0925. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.0790 will become the next one. Then the pair can decrease to the level of 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day was the UK CPI publication. The inflation is traditionally indicator №1 for the currency market and in this regard, there was an increased volatility.

More than a month the resistance level of 1.5670 has been holding back buyers. The price tested this level again on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5775, 1.5970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The course of the trade is determined by the world leading stock exchanges sentiments. The growth leaders were the Nasdaq high-tech index that indicates the investors’ risk appetite. In such circumstances, there appeared the demand for the carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The July building permits weak reports in the US was reflected in the national currency. According to the data, instead of the expected reduction to 1.232M the index decreased to 1.119M, the previous data is 1.337M.

The pair USD/JPY has been consolidating around the support level of 124.30 for a long time.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 123.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the trades the US dollar gave divergent results. The main week event was the Fed meeting minutes’ publication, the market was guided by the economic data.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the number of the US new foundations as well as the "black gold" market sales positive releases. The Eurozone statistics did not publish anything to support its currency. The pair consolidated after the decrease.

By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD had decreased. Earlier the pair increased amid the UK positive inflation. The UK price pressures dynamics report showed that the annual inflation increased slightly in July - the consumer price index (CPI) is amounted to -0.2% m/m, 0.1% y/y which was a pleasant surprise for traders.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in the narrow flat of 124.10-124.50 amid the moderate downward trend in global equity markets and under the technical factors influence that restrained the US dollar growth. However the pair fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The main event of the day was the US inflation publication. We expected the index increase to the level of the forecasted medians compared to the previous months. The data came out at the level of 0,1% that is less then the forecasted 0,2%. The US Treasury two years bond yields are moderately growing, so it was expected their high growth after the inflation release as traders begin to "lay in quotes" the US Federal Reserve first rate hike on September 17 this year.

The euro is correcting against the US dollar on the lower volumes from the resistance level of 1.1150. the pair is consolidating at the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The bears need to break below 1.0925 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks 1.0790, 1.0670 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK inflation release has shown the CPI strong strengthening. The core inflation rose up to 1.2% in annual terms and in this regard it can be concluded about the wages growth strong influence. Against this background, the UK/US inflation indicators are again declining which is a positive factor for the British currency.

Buyers once again raised the price to the resistance level of 1.5670. The level testing was followed by the previous highs update, but without the subsequent breakthrough. The pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 1.5670 break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5775, further then towards 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan and the US 10-years negative bond yields is a positive factor for the dollar as it increases the US assets attractiveness. In addition, we expected the US inflation growth compared with the previous month which will spur the two years Treasury securities growth and also may support the demand for the US dollar. Nevertheless the data came out less then the forecasted median and the dollar decreased against the yen.

For a long time the price has been consolidating below the resistance level of 124.30. The trading volumes are in the reduced area. By the end of the trades the price rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50, 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Fed minutes put pressure on the US dollar. The dollar was sold against all of its major opponents which led to its decrease at the end of the day. The meeting minutes have not convinced investors that interest rates increase would be in September. The protocol content that noted fears, concerning the dollar growth, can have a negative impact on the inflation, an economic growth and foreign trade; it has significantly increased the doubts that the Fed will have to tighten policy in the short term. However, the pressure on the dollar was moderate. Investors focused their attention on the number of initial jobless claims week data which was expected with slight reduction up to 272 thousand from 274 thousand. In fact the jobless claims number increased by 4 thousand to 277 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD had strengthened after the US inflation moderately negative data. The July base rate remained at the level of 1.8%, still traders had expected it at the level of 1.9%.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had symbolically strengthened. The low oil prices held back bulls from the active offensive.

The world leading stock markets sales continued to put pressure on the pair USD/JPY which at the end of the day decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to its US and the UK counterparts that indicate the European assets low investment appeal. The United States published the jobless claims report, which was expected with a slight reduction - up to 272 thousand from 274 thousand. The data showed an increase up to 277 thousand.

The support level of 1.1050 rebound sent the downward correction upwards. The immediate growth target was the resistance level of 1.1150 that was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1260. After breaking 1.1260 the buyers may go to 1.1420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales rose up in July – it is a clear sign that the consumer spending will continue to stimulate economic growth in the third quarter. The National Statistics Office said on Thursday that retail sales amounted to 0.1% m/m and 4.2% y/y in July. Meanwhile, the US published the initial jobless claims. The initial jobless claims number became more than 4 thousand having increased to 277 thousand.

There was formed the short- term consolidation above the mark of 1.5670 that is playing the role of a strong support after its breakthrough, besides there was this level the short-term breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5670 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5775, 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The China instability with the oil prices sharp decline contributed to the US stock market sales. Against this background, it was expected the Tokyo stock market negative trend which will contribute to demand for the yen as a funding currency. Investors' attention was also directed to the initial jobless claims. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 4 thousand having increased to 277 thousand.

The long-term price consolidation was below the strong resistance level of 124.30 that was followed by the prices rebound downwards and the support level of 123.50 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar fell considerably against the Swiss franc after the FOMC minutes publication somewhat reduced speculations about the September rate hike. The traders’ attention is directed to the initial jobless claims week report. The data showed an increase up to 277 thousand. According to the previous month revised data, the Switzerland trade surplus was 3,741 million francs compared with 3509 billion in July.

Bears broke through the support level of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9460. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the levels of 0.9370 and 0.9280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was sold off along the entire market, still the greatest its loss was against the euro and the yen. Obviously, the US Central Bank statements convinced investors that the September policy tightening is unlikely to happen and there are arguments to close positions that were opened earlier on the expectations, relating to the US interest rates growth.

The Euro zone positive news supported the pair EUR/USD. The Germany producer price index exceeded expectations, demonstrating the zero change in July on the month basis and compared to the previous year the rate reduction was -1.3%. In addition, last week the European Commission approved the financial aid third program first tranche to Greece from the planned 86 billion euros, planned for three years.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat amid the oil market "bearish" sentiment as well as the UK retail sales moderately positive statistics: the July growth was 0.1% m/m while it was expected + 0.4% m/m.

The Japanese currency has considerably strengthened its position against the dollar amid the latter major currencies decrease as the Fed is unlikely to change the interest rates in September. The yen was supported by the government bond yields and the stock market indices decrease as well.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German consumers economic expectations have fallen for the third consecutive month to 16.6 points from 18.4 points in July, having added the GfK that despite the optimism decline; consumers are still waiting for the European economy growth. Meanwhile, the US and the Germany government securities credit spreads reduced yesterday which is a positive factor for the euro.

The upward trend continues its strengthening, having broken through the strong resistance levels of 1.1150 and 1.1260 on its way, now the price is trading above the latter level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1420, 1.1530.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to its US and Germany counterparts, making the British assets low attractive for investors.

Sellers tried to return the price below the support level of 1.5670, but without the subsequent breakthrough. There was formed a short-term consolidation above this level and there is a chance for the rebound upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5950 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The China stock market volatility is reflected in the Asia, Europe and the US equity markets which is a negative factor for the pair. Investors do not have "risk appetite" and against this background, we see the carry trade transactions closure and demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

After the support level of 123.50 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 122.40 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 121.60, 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

Switzerland presented the trade balance that is the payments balance largest component. The index is: 3.741V 3.509V against the earlier forecast of 2.600V. The index that is above expectations indicates the bullish market.

The pair USD/CHF broke through the level of 0.9540. This level breakthrough has opened the way to the support area of 0.9460 that was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9460, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9370. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market is more and more confident that the policy tightening is not to be in September, but, moreover, it will happen in December or even in the early 2016. It caused the US dollar decline by more than 150 points against the euro and about 140 points against the yen. The pound neither decreased nor increased against the US dollar and neutrally closed the trade on the opening prices.

Yesterday by the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had strengthened amid the German government bonds yields relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The euro bulls can be supported by the euro area economic data, presented by the manufacturing and the European bloc service sectors activity index preliminary estimates.

The pair GBP/USD was in a flat of 1.5670 -1.5715 amid the oil market "bearish" sentiment. The UK economic data have shown the state finances improvement. The pair increased by the end of the trades.

The Japanese stock market decline put pressure on the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had decreased. In addition, the yen growth was supported by the US stock market decline and the US "treasuries" decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors are massively closing the carry trade operations and go to the funding currency that is the euro and the Japanese yen. Now investors choose these two currencies as they have high liquidity and low interest rates. In addition, the German government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts last week that increases the investments attractiveness into the European assets and will support demand for the single European currency.

Buyers raised the price upwards, breaking through the strong resistance levels of 1.1420 and 1.1530 on its way. The resistance level of 1.1710 was tested then the pair rebounded downwards and closed he trades around the level of 1.1590. The trade volumes are in the increased zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1530, the next one is 1.1420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1650, the next one is 1.1710.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

On the one hand, the UK energy sector and, on the other hand, demand for the US dollar depends on the Brent crude oil dynamics. The USA data s as well as the crude oil reserves increases. The Brent shows the downward trend continuation.

Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.5670. However, after bears attempted to break through the level of 1.5670 downwards with the downward correction. Then the pair increased and tested the level of 1.5775.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.5775. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Investors are escaping from the "risk assets" that will support the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Now we expect the "bearish" sentiment against the US dollar on the bond market: the US 10-year government bond yields are declining against the Japanese counterparts which is a positive factor for the yen.

After the support level of 120.40 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 119.20 break. The two levels breakthroughs were on the increased volumes, sellers are gaining strength.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 117.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar opened the trading week in the negative area – the dollar index basket lost 1.5%, having reached its lowest level for seven months. The Asian, European and American stock markets have added impulse to the dollar sales. The US dollar was sold against all the majors; as a result the dollar continued its decline and recorded losses. The US dollar showed the biggest minus against the euro and the yen which were bought out not only amid frustration over the Fed policy outlook, but also as the refuge currency that was sold earlier in the transactions on the interest rates difference. However, when the stock market began to form reducing correction at the end of the trading session, the dollar got little support and was able to neutralize some of the losses.

The pair EUR/USD had strengthened amid the investors’ escape from the "risky assets". Nevertheless the pair fell by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK government bond yields increase. However by the end of the day the pair showed a sharp decrease.

The pair USD/JPY had declined. The demand reasons for the Japanese currency are similar as for the euro that is the carry trade transactions closure. This pair also changed the movement direction and corrected upwards.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The world has witnessed the capital escape from the "risky assets". The panic corporate bonds sales supported the demand for the single European currency as a funding currency. In addition, there was the Germany and the US negative government bond yields decline in the bond market which makes investments in the US assets less attractive that is also a positive factor for the pair EUR/USD. By the end of the trades the pair showed a rebound downwards.

The euro strengthened against the dollar by 340 points and now there is a corrective rebound from the resistance level of 1.1710 with the support target near the level of 1.1420.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1420, the next one is 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1530, the next one is at 1.1590.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1530 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the fact that the Brent crude oil is trading below $43/barrel - the British currency does not feel discomfort and is gradually moving upwards. Yesterday the UK government bond yields increased significantly against the US and Germany counterparts, making the British assets attractive to financial institutions. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the trades amid the dollar strengthening.

Having broken the strong resistance level of 1.5670, buyers actively continued to raise the price upwards on the increased volumes. The current resistance level is the mark of 1.5775. Having tested this level the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5950 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The world leading stock markets downward trend is gaining strength. The capital outflow is also observed from the emerging markets that led to the highly remunerative currencies sales. In this regard, investors are massively closing the carry trade transactions which contribute to strong demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The debt market is also opposed to the US dollar. However the dollar strengthened by the end of the day.

After the support level of 120.40 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 119.20 break. Then the pair rebounded and broke this level upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20, 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency strengthened against all of its major competitors at the end of the day and leveled part of the previous session losses against the euro and the yen. It returned almost all its losses against the pound and significantly strengthened. Such a turn of events was amid the fact that the China Central Bank lowered interest rates and reserve requirements, thereby assuring investors' willingness to take economic stimulating measures.

After the Monday and Tuesday global stock markets heated sales - it was already possible to observe the opposite trend on Wednesday. Demand for Asian, European and the US corporate bonds contributed to the short positions closure against the US currency. The US consumer confidence and new home sales positive data have increased demand for the dollar. Against this background, the trades within the pair EUR/USD have finished with the quotations decrease. The EU also presented the economic positive data, but they poorly supported the euro. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased against the general sentiment within the dollar and in connection with the UK empty macroeconomic calendar. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating. Earlier this pair strengthened due to the fact that investors had stopped to take refuge in the safe haven yen.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The stock markets panic is gradually leveling which is a negative factor for the single European currency.

Meanwhile, the German and the US 10 -year government bond yields fell to the new multi-year low yesterday, making investments in the US assets less attractive.

After a sharp growth to the resistance level of 1.1710 the euro turned out towards correction. The corrective weakness reached the strong support level of 1.1420. Sellers managed to break through this level.

The price is finding the support at 1.1260. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the support level of 1.1260 can lead to the price rebound upwards. The targhetra of the upward rebound will be the resistance levels of 1.1530, 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts, making investments in British assets less attractive to institutional investors. Secondly, the commodity market sales will support the US currency.

Buyers have updated the previous day maximum of 1.5805, but they failed to continue the bullish trend. The upward trend reversed in the short-term correction. The price broke through the support levels of 1.5775, 1.5550 and decreased to the level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the downward movement will be continued now. The potential target is the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Now there is observed correction after strong sales in the world leading stock markets. Capitals are coming back to the stock market and are going from the safe assets - gold and bond yields. In this context, investors will open the carry trade transactions which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The US dollar is trading different directional. The price is trading above the support level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to the support level of 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese and the US stock indices have grown, pointing out to the risk appetite increase. It supported the US currency and the US dollar solidly strengthened against all of its major opponents by the end of the day. The additional factor that increased the dollar popularity was the US economic data. The dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 95.21.

Two key factors contributed to the dollar growth. Firstly, the durable goods orders release was better than the consensus forecast - sales increased by 2% in July while traders expected decrease by 0.5%.

Secondly, there are positive factors in the debt market. During the day the US Treasury 10-years bond yields were increasing steadily upwards that contributed to the channel capital inflow into the US assets and ultimately it supported demand for the dollar.

Against this background, the EUR/USD pair trades ended with the quotations decrease; the pair GBP/USD had declined by the end of the day and the USD/JPY had strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the German and the US negative government bond yields increased by 6 basis points. In addition, there was the second quarter US GDP second assessment published which was expected within the forecasted medians. As well as the number of jobless claims weekly report that was expected 274K against the previous 277K. the data came out at the level of 271K.

The euro sharp growth against the dollar was replaced by the no less sharp downward correction. The signal for the correction continuation served the levels of 1.1420 and 1.1260 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to the US counterparts. In addition, the moderately positive macroeconomic data output supported the demand for the dollar. The initial jobless claims were expected with decline to 274 000 against the previous 277 000. The release showed a decrease to 271 000.

The strong support level of 1.5640 has been broken through downwards. The price decline was stopped at the support of 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5390 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Panic sales in the world leading stock markets have stopped. Against this background, investors’ escape from the carry trade transactions has practically stopped. In this context, the "safe assets" such as gold and the Japanese yen were not in demand.

The second quarter US GDP second assessment can be revised in the positive direction against the strong macroeconomic releases. The number of jobless claims was expected to 274K against the previous 277K. In fact there was 271K.

The US dollar partially returned positions against the yen. The pair is going upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

Switzerland presented the report, indicating the country industrial orders volume in the second quarter: -2.4% vs. -4.8 which have been revised from -0.9%.

The Commerce Department revised the durable goods orders data for June upwards (to + 4.1% from 3.4%) which improved GDP growth economists’ forecasts in the second quarter.

The dollar sharp decline against the franc was stopped at the support level of 0.9280, but then it turned up towards the correction. The dollar reached the resistance of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9650. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the levels of 0.9750, 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.