Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical ana
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2015 3:37 pm
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
06.07.2015
Fundamental analysis
The market was relatively quiet at the end of last week - the major pairs were traded in narrow ranges, despite the US labor market publication which traditionally caused the volatility surge. The labor market report as a whole is positive - the unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the Non-Farm figure was 223 thousand. It is slightly worse than the median forecast, still the report is above 200 thousand. The average earnings index disappointed traders with the data worse than the consensus forecast, which will restrain the inflation growth.
Investors continue to monitor the situation with Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras proposed a compromise to extent the financial assistance program. Meanwhile, Tsipras continued to call on the citizens to vote against the proposed measures by creditors.
The EUR/USD increased and the pair GBP/USD fell at the end of the week. The pair USD/JPY fell amid the risky assets demand.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The US labor market release as a whole can be considered positive. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the lowest level since May 2008. In the private sector created more than 200 thousand. new jobs during the second quarter, indicating a strong economic growth.
The May retail sales index in the euro zone increased by 0.2%. The forecasted growth was 0.1%.
The most important euro/dollar event is new negotiations between Athens and the creditors are held on July 6, immediately after the national referendum.
The support level of 1.1050 stopped the euro decrease in the short term.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.
There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1050 soon. After this level breakthrough down the way to the supports 1.0925, 1.0790 will be opened.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
We pay attention to the service sector business climate publication. This indicator is one of the leading ones. The index rose to 58.5 from 56.5. The bond market dynamics indicates the bearish sentiment predominance - the British bonds yields decrease relative to the US in Germany bonds.
The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.5670.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5460.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
If traders are positive to the US dollar - we expect the demand for the dollar. However, the 2-year Treasury bonds decline after weak June average earnings indicates the expectations decrease about imminent monetary policy tightening by the Fed and this factor is negative for the dollar.
The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40, 121.60.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
When the market has received a signal from the European authorities that they will continue any negotiations with Greece only after the referendum, investors have focused entirely on the fundamental news.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
06.07.2015
Fundamental analysis
The market was relatively quiet at the end of last week - the major pairs were traded in narrow ranges, despite the US labor market publication which traditionally caused the volatility surge. The labor market report as a whole is positive - the unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the Non-Farm figure was 223 thousand. It is slightly worse than the median forecast, still the report is above 200 thousand. The average earnings index disappointed traders with the data worse than the consensus forecast, which will restrain the inflation growth.
Investors continue to monitor the situation with Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras proposed a compromise to extent the financial assistance program. Meanwhile, Tsipras continued to call on the citizens to vote against the proposed measures by creditors.
The EUR/USD increased and the pair GBP/USD fell at the end of the week. The pair USD/JPY fell amid the risky assets demand.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The US labor market release as a whole can be considered positive. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the lowest level since May 2008. In the private sector created more than 200 thousand. new jobs during the second quarter, indicating a strong economic growth.
The May retail sales index in the euro zone increased by 0.2%. The forecasted growth was 0.1%.
The most important euro/dollar event is new negotiations between Athens and the creditors are held on July 6, immediately after the national referendum.
The support level of 1.1050 stopped the euro decrease in the short term.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.
There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1050 soon. After this level breakthrough down the way to the supports 1.0925, 1.0790 will be opened.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
We pay attention to the service sector business climate publication. This indicator is one of the leading ones. The index rose to 58.5 from 56.5. The bond market dynamics indicates the bearish sentiment predominance - the British bonds yields decrease relative to the US in Germany bonds.
The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.5670.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5460.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
If traders are positive to the US dollar - we expect the demand for the dollar. However, the 2-year Treasury bonds decline after weak June average earnings indicates the expectations decrease about imminent monetary policy tightening by the Fed and this factor is negative for the dollar.
The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40, 121.60.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
When the market has received a signal from the European authorities that they will continue any negotiations with Greece only after the referendum, investors have focused entirely on the fundamental news.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.