"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysi

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market is still volatile after the Fed meeting, where the regulator corrected his plans and announced two rates hikes instead of four.

Despite the "risk appetite" growth, the euro enjoyed steady demand as a funding currency. The market has completely ignored this factor, which indicated the presence of strong buyers. The dynamics of the debt market showed mixed trends: the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew in relation to their counterparts in the UK, but reduced to US Treasuries. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

The UK did not publish important macroeconomic statistics. We believe that investors will focus their attention on the dynamics of the oil market. Black gold fell by 3%, updating the maximum of the last trading week. Demand for oil impacted the pair GBP/USD in a traditional positive way. The pair pound/dollar increased.

The pair USD/JPY set a fresh low for the last 14 months. Such a strengthening of the yen may not please the monetary authorities of Japan, as this strengthening is a threat to exporters. The United States published consumer confidence from the University of Michigan: 91,7 against the forecasted 92,1. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB President Mario Draghi performed at the end of the week. In particular, he noted that the monetary policy itself could not respond to the structural weaknesses in Europe; the interest rates would remain at the same level or would be lowered for a longer time. Germany published Producer Price Index for February. The index came in at -0.5% m/m and at -2.7% y/y.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1350 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The English Central Bank left the rate unchanged. According to the Bank’s minutes the regulator’s tone was not so pessimistic that pushed the quotes upwards. The regulator noted growth of uncertainty due to the threat of Brexit, still he was quite positive regarding the economic situation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4640.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 102.05 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25



Yen

General overview

The Japanese yen sharply rose against the US dollar. Some analysts believe that the BoJ was behind this intervention to weaken the yen. Only by the end of the week the dollar slightly increased against the yen.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is corrcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 112.20, 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 111.40 and 110.60.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss National Bank left the monetary policy unchanged last week, the deposit rate was kept at -0.75%. Thomas Jordan, head of the Bank of Switzerland, warned about the negative consequences of a prolonged period of negative interest rates, as it may lead to the escape of the capital.

The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9660. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9580.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar tried to recover after aggressive sales, still its upward potential was limited, and the US currency was in its third week of decline against the euro*. The stock markets sentiment supported the dollar. The main drivers for the risky assets strengthening were: oil growth and Prata's comments (ECB representative) regarding possible further monetary policy.

The EUR/USD showed a mixed background. On the one hand, the growth of "risk appetite" was a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. On the other hand, moderately negative macroeconomic data from the United States did not allow the dollar to strengthen. Weak Retail Sales for January and February did not allow us to rely on an increase in sales in the secondary market. In fact the data came in at the level of 5,08M against the forecasted 5,34M. However, the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The UK government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of investments in British assets, and thereby put pressure on the pound. On the other hand, the oil market showed a technical correction as well. Then the oil price showed a growth. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

Japan celebrated a public holiday, its banks did not work. The market showed low liquidity. The pair dollar/yen slightly increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro was under pressure amid Praet's statements (ECB Representative). According to Praet the ECB may launch additional incentives and low the rates if necessary. He also made it clear that the Bank had the tools to deal with deflationary pressures. More recently, M. Draghi said to the contrary, assuring markets that there was no need for further policy easing. Against this background, the Praet’s words were quite a surprise for stock markets. The euro reacted to them with sales.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1350 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The sterling fell against the dollar. Earlier the pound received some support after the Bank of England quarterly bulletin publication where the regulator paid much attention to China. The Central Bank believes that the UK economy was exposed to only a minor risk by slowing growth in China. The China GDP falling by 1% shall take from the British economy 0.1%. Although the Bank acknowledged that it expected a further China's GDP slowdown.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow above the resistance level of 1.4400. After breaking 1.4400 the buyers may go to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The debt market dynamics showed a moderate demand for the Japanese currency: the government bonds yields differential (the United States and Japanese) moderately reduced, which reduced the attractiveness of the US assets. By the end of the trades the pair slightly increased.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 111.40 and 110.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar stopped its growth against the major currencies on Tuesday, but still received support, as investors remained cautious after a series of terrorist attacks in Brussels that killed 26 people and left wounded more than 100. The tragic events in Brussels had a negative impact on the euro and the British pound.

In the absence of important macroeconomic reports the market consolidated in a narrow range. Even the US releases did not revive the market. Existing Home Sales for February came in at a minimum level, having decreased by 7.1%, while analysts had expected a more modest drop of 2.8%. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February came in at -0.29 vs. the forecast of +0.25 and the previous value of + 0.41.

We will pay attention to the IFO Institute publication. This indicator is closely correlated with the dynamics of the German GDP and is always closely monitored by investors. This indicator has been showing a negative trend last three months. The market did not expect the data better than the consensus forecast amid strengthening of the euro. However, the data came in at the level of 106,7 against the forecasted 106,0. The pair euro/dollar fell.

The Inflation Report was published in the UK. As we expected the strong labor market figures pointed to the report that was slightly better than the consensus forecast. The unemployment in the UK is at the lowest level since 2005 now, while the average monthly earnings was 0.2% in the last three months which would increase inflationary pressures. The Consumer Price Index came in at the level of 0,3% y/y and 0,2% m/m against the forecasted 0,4% y/y and 0,4% m/m. The pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

We do not expect strong growth of quotations right now. The United States disappointed investors with weak macroeconomic statistics: Existing Home Sales for February decreased by 7.1% in February. The home sales fell by 6.7% from January to March, which once again confirmed the hypothesis that the Americans began to save more than to spend. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

After the US publications the dollar slightly weakened. Later, euro weakened after the weak Consumer Confidence index publication in the Euro area for March – the index fell to -9.7 vs. the forecast of -8.15 and at the previous value of -8.80. The Euro zone published Manufacturing PMI 51,4 against the forecasted 51,3 and Services PMI 54,0 against the forecasted 53,3 from Markit. In Germany these data came in at the level of 50,4 against the forecasted 50,8 and 55,5 against the forecasted 55,0. Economic Sentiment in Germany from ZEW came in at 4.3 versus the forecast of 5.0.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price falls it will get to 1.1150 and 1.1050. The upward bounce potential targets are 1.1260, 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

The pound felt the pressure amid the political factor, which added some fears about the Brexit. Ian Duncan Smith, the British Minister for Labour Affairs and Pensions resigned due to disagreements with the Prime Minister over the fiscal policy. In addition to the possible split in the government, the CBI investigation added some negative sentiment. According to the CBI the country's exit from the EU could cost £ 100 billion for the UK economy and nearly 1 million jobs might be lost by 2020.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4160, 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

Manufacturing PMI was published in the United States at the level of 51,4 against the forecasted 51,8. The United States upset investors with the weak macroeconomic statistics: Existing Home Sales decreased by 7.1% for February. The Existing Home Sales fell by 6.7% from January to March.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 113.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 113.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The tragic events in Brussels impacted the market. This news pressured the euro and stock assets. As a result, the dollar strengthened against most of its rivals, but lost to the commodity currencies. The United States published New Home Sales for February at the level of 512K (the previous value was 502K, the forecast was 510K).

Despite the increased geopolitical tensions on Tuesday, the euro as a safe asset failed to get additional dividends. The terrorist attack in Brussels supported the single currency only in the short term. In general traders did not close "risky assets" in panic. However the pair euro/dollar fell on Wednesday.

The "black gold" dynamics identified the trend on the British currency. Inflation release for February disappointed the market with its weak data. CPI came out worse than the consensus forecast. Inflation differential of UK and the United States re-expanded in favor of the latter. Consumer prices declined in both countries: the index declined by 0.53% in the UK, and by 0.05% in the United States. The pair pound/dollar continued the decrease.

The increased demand for "risky" assets supported the USDJPY "bulls". The fact that investors ignored the negative sentiment pointed to strong buyers presence who came not for one day. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth and rebounded downwards only by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The EUR/USD showed a mixed background. On the one hand, Germany 10 years government bonds yield increased relative to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which increased the attractiveness of European assets. On the other hand, the growth of "risk appetite" is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1050. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260 and 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

The main reasons for the pair’s sales were: renewed fears about the Brexit and the British statistics. Consumer Price Index for February left a negative territory, but did not meet market’s expectations. The index amounted + 0.2% m/m vs. the forecast of + 0.4% m/m. Producer prices showed good results, but the PPI declined by 8.1% from -8.0% versus the expected improvement to -7.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4080 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4000 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan will be replenished with supporters of negative interest rates. Makoto Sakurai, who supports the negative interest rates, was elected as a new member of the Board of Directors on Wednesday. This is likely to change the balance in favor of the Haruhiko Kuroda. Unlike his predecessor, Sakurai sees negative interest rates as a powerful tool to support lending.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 113.00. After breaking 113.00 the buyers may go to 113.80. If the price falls it will get to 112.20 and 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar stopped its growth. Earlier two factors supported the dollar: returned risk appetite and the new "hawkish" statements of Fed speakers. Traders started to buy the dollar after the Bullard’s performance (Fed representative). Bullard joined the recent comments of his colleagues, having revived traders’ hopes for an early rate hike, which, according to several speakers might occur in April or June. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than it was expected: 265 thousand against the forecasted 268 thousand. Western World will celebrate Good Friday today.

The yield differential of US and German government bonds reduced. That fact reduced the attractiveness of US assets and would put pressure on the dollar. Another important positive factor was the closing of risk assets. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar showed a growth after a decrease.

The UK retail sales report for February was the main event in the UK yesterday. The index pleased us and showed -0.4% when the forecast was -0.7%. The pair pound/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

Japan showed a mixed fundamental background yesterday. On the one hand, the Japanese government downgraded its forecasts for economic growth in 2016. The government expects the decline in personal consumption and corporate profits decrease. In this regard, bears are well aware that count on the strengthening of the yen is extremely dangerous. On the other hand, the financial markets showed decline of "risk appetite", which might positively impact the yen as a funding currency. The pair dollar/yen increased after the downward movement.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair focused its attention on the stock assets dynamics in the absence of economic data. Risk interest played against the single currency, which was also affected by the strengthening of the dollar after the Fed representatives’ "hawkish" statements. The EUR/USD could not strengthen even after a slight
deterioration of sentiment on the USA stock market that was caused by oil quotations falling. The dollar kept its stable positions. Only by the end of the trades the piar increased amid the slight dollar’s weakness.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.1150. The potential growth target is the resistance levels of 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. The increased "risk appetite" could not be ignored as well, putting pressure on the cross-rate EUR/GBP. The risk appetite had a positive impact on the British currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

Japanese exporters repeatedly stated the need of measures aimed at weakening of the national currency. The US and Japanese government bond yield differential widened to its highest level since 30 th December, 2015, which also played into the hands of the US currency buyers.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 112.20.



Franc

General overview

The dollar strengthened its positions after a positive US housing market data. The promising Federal Reserve representatives’ comments supported the USA currency as well along side with the increased demand for safe assets after the terrorist attacks in Brussels. However, then the dollar’s growth stopped.

The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9660, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9580



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Traders continued buying the dollar, still the dollar strengthening was weak and soon after the dollar retreated. In general, traders activity was gradually reduced amid the long Easter weekend (European and the US markets are closed). The dollar positions were undermined by the ambiguous statistics from the United States, although all published reports were quite positive. The United States published the final GDP for the fourth quarter. The data came in at the level 1,4% against the forecasted 1,0%.

German government bonds yields decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which pressured the euro. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK increased in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. Moreover the oil market dynamics was hard to ignore. After a correction caused by weak oil stocks in the US, investors once again began to build up long positions that had a positive impact on the British currency. Only by the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

The published inflation data in Japan showed that the consumer price index over the year in February was not changed. Low energy prices and weak demand limited the growth of the price. These facts kept pressuring the Bank of Japan to increase the size of the stimulus, although the regulator had softened its monetary policy in January. The pair dollar/yen slightly increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

According to Klaas Knot (the president of the Netherlands Bank) the effectiveness of stimulus measures taken by the European Central Bank is approaching its limit. He believes that the ECB monetary policy instruments have been exhausted.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. If the price falls it will get to 1.1150 and 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

Retail Sales ex-Fuel report supported the pound. The index rose by 4.1% y/y vs. the forecast of + 3.4% and the January values at + 5.1%. Retail sales also came in better than expected, reaching 0.4% against analysts' forecast of -0.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4160 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

Yen failed to take an advantage from a flight from risk. The meeting of the BoJ became another negative factor for the yen. The head of the Central Bank Haruhiko Kuroda said that the monetary policy easing would be continued as long as the inflation stabilized at around 2%.

The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 113.80. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 113.00 and 112.20.



Franc

General overview

In addition to the US statistics Bullard's performance (the representative of the Fed) was in the spotlight. According to Bullard the next rate hike may happen soon enough as the March forecasts decline was relatively small. Kaplan (another Fed representative) said that the Fed was aimed to normalize the interest rates "as quickly as possible."

The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9750, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9660



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued to be in demand, which returned most of its losses that happened after the Federal Reserve meeting. The traders’ activity was low amid the Catholic Easter celebration. We expect the volatility to return today when traders return from holidays.

The surprisingly strong US GDP report supported the dollar as well. The GDP was revised upwards. The US economy grew by 1.4% in the fourth quarter against the previous estimate at + 1.0% and an increase of 2% in the third quarter. These figures became another argument in favor of an early rate hike, which was repeatedly expressed by the FRS representatives last week, this in return supported the demand for the dollar. The United States published Pending Home Sales for February. The forecast was 1.0%, the data came in at the level of 3,5%. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a slight growth on Monday.

The GBPUSD remained vulnerable, and continued to advance south amid concerns about Brexit results. High uncertainty about Brexit results provoked an increase in volatility for the pound the pairs. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar increased.

The inflation report for February in Japan changed the Japanese and the United States differential of CPI indicators in favor of the latter. The spread was 0.1% in January and increased by 0.43% in the last month of winter. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The market showed a low volatility amid the Easter Holidays yesterday. Although market received some reports still traders’ did not have a desire to trade. For example, the US currency symbolically grew by a few points. The EUR/USD remained in a range as European markets were closed. However by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar corrected upwards.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.1150. The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth.



Pound

General overview

The US data was the focus of our attention on Monday as no important news were published in the UK. The trading volumes were very low amid the Easter Monday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4160 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4080 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

Speculations that a strong US economic statistics will increase the likelihood of the Fed interest rates increase in April supported the US currency.

The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 113.80 and 114.60. If the price falls it will get to 113.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Janet Yellen's speech was the key event yesterday. According to Yellen she is concerned about the low inflation figures. Meanwhile, the Fed has a number of tools for the economy stimulus, if needed, even if the rate returns back to zero. In addition, she noted that the world changes and risks lead to a slower pace of interest rate increase.

The dollar failed to grow against most of its rivals at the beginning of the new trading week. The US currency became a victim of the weak statistics from the US. The market response to the news was extremely intense in a low liquidity due to the ongoing Easter holiday. There was a mixed background concerning the single European currency. On the one hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, which should put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. On the other hand, after Personal Consumption Expenditures publication the US dollar fell against its major competitors. The US published Consumer Confidence report for March at the level of 96.2 (the previous value was 92.2, the forecast was 93.9). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth.

The growing oil price pushed the pound upwards. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

The yen finished the rally and weakened after the conflicting economic release from Japan. The interest in selling could be associated with the reports about the monetary stimulus measures discussion. The volume of consumer spending in Japan increased by 1.2% in February compared to the last year (it was the first time in six months), which was significantly better than the expected decline of 1.8%. The volume of retail sales grew by only 0.5% with the expected growth of 1.6%. The unemployment rate rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair euro/dollar increased on Tuesday. Earlier the dollar rose against the European currency as investors were preparing for Yellen’s speech. Everybody was guessing whether the Chairmen would give a hint regarding the next rate hike in the United States or not. The Eurozone and the United States monetary polices will continue to diverge as long as investors are confident in the Fed’s future rate increase. Meanwhile the euro will be supported by Mario Draghi’s statements that the rates are at the lowest limit.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The widespread dollar selling supported the pair GBP/USD. We recommend to pay attention to Manufacturing PMI which will be published on Friday. We also wait for Mark Carney’s performance (Bank of England Chairman) on Thursday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen remained under pressure when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he intended to implement the planned rise of sales tax in April, if the economy did not suffer from sudden shocks. Many analysts expected that Abe to postpone the planned increase, that is a threat to the fragile recovery of the Japanese economy. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen fell amid the dollar’s weakness.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 112.20 and 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar suffered significant losses. The US currency fell victim to the extremely soft Fed rhetoric. The regulator emphasized the risks: external and internal, and also mentioned the possibility of policy easing if necessary. The regulator’s comments suggest a significant weakening of the dollar, especially in light of the mentioned possible return to the economy stimulation. The ADP for March was published on Wednesday (the previous value was 214K; the forecast was 194K). The data came in at the level of 200K.

It is impossible to ignore the growing "appetite for risk": traders are increasing their long positions and high-yield cross-rates that pressured the euro as a funding currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

The debt market dynamics pointed to the British currency correction. The 10 years UK government bonds yields reduced in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The Bank of England performance will be the focus of our attention on Thursday. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased.

The yields differential on government bonds of the United States and Japan decreased from November to February inclusively. Retail Trade turnover decreased by 5.4% in Japan. Despite the Japanese and the US retail sales differential indicators at 0% at the end of January, this figure reached the level of 2.2% in favor of the latter in February. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a slight growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen’s speech made a huge change in the quotations dynamics – the price flew to the weekly highs in minutes. The positive consumer confidence data in the United States could not support the dollar. Meanwhile, the March index jumped to 96.2 from 92.2 against the forecast of 94.0. Germany published the preliminary March data on the inflation at the level of 0,8% against the forecasted 0,6%.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

Janet Yellen’s soft tone (Federal Reserve Chairman) was fairly predictable, the US dollar sharply retreated against the pound. The pair flew upwards to the weekly highs. Even though the BoE considers the Brexit one of the main threats for the country's financial stability this time it did not prevent the pound from growing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen weakened amid the weak retail sales data in Japan. The index fell by 2.3% m/m after a reduction by 0.4% in January. The unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%. Akie Abe’s statements, the Prime Minister, were another factor that played against the yen. According to the Prime Minister he does not intend to put off the sales tax increase from 8% to 10%, which is scheduled for next year. However, after Janet Yellen’s speech the quotes dramatically changed their vector and rushed south. Only by the end of the trades the pair slightly increased.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the level 113.00. We do not exclude the falls to 112.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisFFS]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued to lose ground, being under heavy pressure after the recent extremely soft Janet Yellen's comments. The dollar was so shocked by the regulator's rhetoric that was not able to show a positive reaction even after a positive labor market report.

According to the ADP, the level of employment increased by 200 000 compared to the forecasted 194 000. If not the recent Yellen's comments the market could see a decent dollar growth in response to the positive ADP release, which attracted considerable attention in anticipation of the NFP. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims for March at the level of 276K (the previous value was 265K; the forecast was 269K).

After a positive German’s CPI release we expect the Euro area inflation data better than a consensus forecast. The ECB soft monetary policy and the oil price growth pressured the inflation in Europe. The preliminary CPI for March came in at -0.1% m/m, in line with the forecast. The pair EUR/USD strengthened.

The United Kingdom published the final GDP for Q4. The report showed 2.1% vs. the forecast of 1.9%. According to Carney, the Bank of England governor, the low growth and low interest rates create problems for banks and corporations. The instrument pound/dollar is consolidating.

The published Japanese macroeconomic statistics continued to disappoint the market. The main factors that pressured the yen were: weak employment and retail sales report and the negative industrial production. The industrial production has been decreasing the last three months. The pair dollar/yen is consolidating.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Retail sales in Germany declined in February. The index fell by 0.4% m/m, after a falling by 0.1% in January. Economists forecasted a growth of sales by 0.3% compared with January’s release. The number of unemployed in Germany remained unchanged in March, the unemployment rate remained at 6.2%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The fact that the UK economy grew in the last three months of 2015 more than it was anticipated helped the pound to strengthen against the dollar. Still the country's current account deficit rose to a record high. The current balance of payments for Q4 was 32.7 billion. pounds. However by the end of the trades the pound showed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4400 and 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

According to Kuroda the market interest rates significantly decreased; the government did not declare victory over a deflation as it cannot be sure that the low prices will not return.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 112.20.



Franc

General overview

The US dollar fell against almost all currencies when Janet Yellen supported a cautious approach to the interest rates raising. Investors considered her remarks as a soft tone, which led to the stock market growth.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9420.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman