Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Thu Apr 11, 2013 2:53 am

11 APRIL 2013: WALL STREET LIFTS ASIAN SHARES

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Wall Street’s record closing and optimism on the Chinese economy lifted Asian shares in early Thursday morning trading. The Japanese yen continues to be under strong pressure. USD/JPY trades at 99,60, a hair’s breadth within the 100 level. Yen continues to test fresh lows against major currencies as the effect of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) bold monetary easing takes hold. The South East Asian Pacific index, MSCI, gained 0,8%, while the Japanese Nikkei jumped 1,3%.

The new Governor of BOJ has proven that is serious regarding a 2% inflation level bringing fresh impetus to a stagnating, deflationary economy. There are questions whether this is enough. Monetary measures ought to be followed up by a strong restructuring of the Japanese economy especially steps to encourage the private bond market. Japanese bonds have fallen on BOJ measures, and Japanese investors are said to be moving funds into foreign bonds.

The last published minutes from the Federal Reserve (FED) Board’s meeting gives new to the US dollar. According to the minutes FED officials have debated to slow down the pace of asset purchases or end them later this year. The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 gave also impetus to a stronger dollar. Both indexes ended at historic highs on Wednesday, led by cyclical shares on China’s rosier demand outlook. Chinese imports have increased significantly during the last quarters. Higher-yield commodity currencies also gained ground on the Chinese data with the Australian dollar jumping to 1,0553 Against the USD.

A report published by the European commission yesterday gave a bleak picture of the economic development inside the euro zone. One of the EU-newcomers, Slovenia, has been a stark warning to put his house in order. The banking sector’s debt ridden and suffers. Slovenia might therefore be the next in line to follow Cyprus. The EU Commission also points to serious weaknesses in the banking sector in Italy, France and Spain in and reminds that the European banking and financial crisis might only be in its beginning.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:56 am

12 APRIL 2013: WALL STREET POSTS NEW RECORD HIGHS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Asian shares retreated marginally Friday morning after recent gains. The Asia-Pacific, MSCI-index fell 0,3% due especially to the tense situation in the Korean peninsula. Investor’s confidence was underpinned by new record highs on Wall Street. Shares rose for the fourth day. A drop last week in the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits, gave markets a new boost. A 14% plunge in personal computer sales in first quarter, the sharpest drop in two years, could not spoil the good sentiment. USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 100 yen mark.

The Nikkei index helped by Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) efforts to fight deflation dropped 0,8% on profit taking. The Nikkei is up 10% over the last week and trades at its highest level since July 2008. The dollar has gained 6% towards the yen the last week and hit a 99,95 yen to dollar on Thursday, a level not seen in four years. Euro/Yen climbed to 131,10 and reached the highest level seen since 2010. Aussie dollar also soared towards the yen. USD/JPY fell back to 99,50 unable to break through the 100 mark.

In Europe the EU- Commission’s bleak forecast on the economic development inside the Euro zone did not affect the strength of the Euro. Euro/USD is steady around 1,31 – 1.3150. Slovenia with its struggling banking sector, was singled out as a candidate to be next in line for a bail-out after Cyprus. But the banking sectors Italy, Spain and also France remain in the danger zone. The guru investor, George Sorros, stated earlier in the week that he saw Eurobonds as the solution to Europe’s troubled economies and saw a possible German Euro exit as a viable alternative.

President Barack Obama’s latest proposal to solve the US budget crisis by trimming Social Security and other safety-net benefits have is off to a cold response. Republicans, Democrats and even the White House have distanced themselves from the proposal. The reactions illustrate the difficulty of reaching a bargain to reduce spending and tame the deficit. The Republicans said that the President’s offer did not go far enough to cut spending.

In Cyprus the Central Bank has been selling part of its gold reserves to raise around 400 million Euro to help finance part of its bailout, the European Commission announced on Wednesday. Cyprus has totally a reserve of 13,9 tons. 10,35 tons are set to be sold. The transaction had a negative impact on gold prices which following the Cypriot sales fell USD 20 dollar an ounce on Wednesday. The Cyprus Central Bank is selling gold at a time when other central banks are building up their gold reserves as security against monetary easing and big volatility in the currency markets.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Mon Apr 15, 2013 3:27 am

15 APRIL 2013: CHINESE GDP UNEXPECTEDLY SLOWS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The Chinese economic growth unexpectedly lost momentum in the first quarter of 2013 as gains in factory output and consumption weakened; driving stocks and commodities lower on concern of a slowdown in global expansion. Gross domestic product, GDP, rose 7,7% from a year earlier. The GDP numbers did not meet analyst forecasts of 8,0% growth. March industrial production gained less than estimated. Retail-sales growth are, however, in line with forecasts.

The weaker than estimated forecasts put oil prices under new pressure. Brent crude fell to USD 101 a barrel as gold tumbled to a 21-month low. The steep decline in gold and silver prices started last Thursday and gained momentum during Friday night and early Asian trading. Gold hast lost USD 150 an ounce in less than one week and trades at 1441. The gold prices decline follows a bearish note from Goldman Sachs which foresees continued falls in the precious metals and strongly recommend sales.

The depreciation of the Japanese yen, JPY, has halted as US authorities warned Japan against devaluation. USD/JPY licked on 100 mark several days during last week. It is now trading at 97,67. Euro/USD keeps steady at 1.3074. USD/GBP (British pound sterling) stays at 1.5321. Inside the Euro zone it might be quiet before new storm forecasts. European finance ministers adopted last Thursday a 10 Billion Euro bail-out for Cyprus.

The Cypriot government has simultaneously lifted the forecasts of its own contribution to the banking bail-in from Euro 5,8 to the double amount. This will put private account deposits in the Cypriot banks under new hair-cut pressure. The increase in bail-in demand comes on top of rumors that Cyprus is selling major part of its gold reserves. That has added to the downward pressure on gold prices. The Governor of the Cyprus Central Bank, CBB, has voiced concern that the independence of the CBB is under government pressure.

The weaker growth in China adds to concerns that the global recovery is struggling. Monetary easing by injecting money into economic system has led to new records on the stock exchanges, but no new working places are added. There are fears that new record high stock markets barely represent a new bubble. The International Monetary Fund, IMF, is said to consider to lower its forecast for US growth. The guru investor, George Soros, warns that Germany shall be in recession by end of September. Soros is also forecasting a breakup of the Euro either by a unilateral German exit or by member states exiting following the Cyprus crisis.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Tue Apr 16, 2013 3:14 am

16 APRIL 2013: GOLD PRICES COLLAPSE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Gold collapsed completely yesterday as precious metals plunged to the lowest levels seen in years. Gold trades at USD 1351 an ounce falling 250 dollar in two days. Silver fell from USD 28,25 ending yesterday at 22,50. Oil and other commodity prices sharply declined. Brent crude fell below the critical USD 100 a barrel level at USD 98,42. Stock market plunged as investors dumped risky assets and worries over slowing growth in China and US took hold. After a short spell of relief, Japanese yen, JPY, continued to slide against USD, before rebounding to 97,67 yen to a dollar.

The dramatic development in financial markets follows a worldwide rally in stocks in the first months of 2013 where daily new records on Wall Street have outpaced fundamentals. The monetary easing in the US, Europe and lastly Japan have injected huge capital into stocks without succeeding to create new employment. Risk markets have been rallying at a pace not in line with a tepid global growth recovery. Investor’s sell off of precious metals, commodities and shares might be seen as a last ditch effort to take some profit while markets evert to levels more in line with fundamentals.

Investors are reassessing their portfolio allocations for the second quarter of 2013 on that basis. In this perspective it seems likely that funds would be pulled out of the US stock market also taking European uncertainties into account. US debt might then back as a secure long term investment and reduce demands for an alternative safe-haven as gold. There are therefore valid question marks as to whether the deep plunge in gold will continue and that we are still far from a bottom.

USD/PY recovered during Monday. The dollar fell to 95,67 yen. The Euro hit a low of 125 yen. Both USD and Euro have rebounded. Euro is trading at 126,75 yen. In a market dominated by steep falls and quick rebounds, EURO/USD has traded steady in an interval between 1.3050 and 1.31. In early Asian trading, the Asian-Pacific index, MSCI, has stabilized after a 2% drop in European and US markets yesterday. A bomb explosion killing two and injuring 130 people at the finish line of the Boston marathon added to the downward pressure on the New York exchanges.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Wed Apr 17, 2013 3:08 am

17 APRIL 2013: WALL STREET LIFTED BY GOLD AND EARNINGS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


US-stocks jumped more than one percent on Tuesday recovering after the worst fall since November. Gold prices rebounded from bottom level on USD 1351 and trades at 1379, but selling levels still persist. The US stock indexes were lifted by good earnings from Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson. The bullish sentiment was also helped by inflation data which reinforced expectations that he Federal Reserve will keep the stimulus. After two falling days, Asian stock markets are back in positive territory.

Gold prices jumped 30 dollar during yesterday’s session after falling 8,8% on record volume on Monday. Gold reached 1382, but is still under strong selling pressure as investors rushed to dump gold. Gold prices suffered their sharpest fall since the 1980’ies heightening fears among investors that precious metal’s decade long Bull Run has ended. Silver also fell 11% and trades at 23,42. Silver was trading above USD 35 just a few months ago, and reached the USD 50 mark just two years ago.

The gold selling fever initiated in Cyprus where the government last week stated readiness to sell its gold reserves to help finance IMF and ECB demands for bail-out assets. Rumors indicated that other pressed Southern European countries would follow suit. Faltering European demand and weaker than expected Chinese economic data depressed oil prices. Brent crude fell to a nine-month low and reached USD 98 a barrel bottom. Brent has also recovered and trades again above USD 100.

The Japanese yen (JPY) eased in Asian trading this morning as it succumbs to new pressure as gold recovered. The historic plunge in gold prices coupled with fresh concern about China’s economic growth, saw some investors plunge back in yen as a safe haven reversing the downward trend sparked by Bank of Japan’s aggressive stimulus program. USD/JPY trades at 98,19. The USD has lost ground against the euro which has gained momentum after breaking through the stiff technical resistance at 1.3110/20. Euro is at 1.3173 as Euro bulls shrugged off a report on sharp April-fall in German investor sentiment.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Thu Apr 18, 2013 2:55 am

18 APRIL 2013: RISKS ASSETS BROADLY SLIPS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Risks assets broadly slipped on Thursday following overnight drop in US and European equities on fears for global growth. Oil prices have dropped substantially. Brent crude fell two dollars trading below USD 98 a barrel. Iran, has asked for an emergency meeting in OPEC, the organization for oil producing states, to discuss the low oil prices as non-OPEC United States is pumping 7,2 million tons a day. This contributes to the imbalance between market demand and supply. Gold lid further as capital flow out of gold-backed-exchange-traded funds continues.

US-Stocks fell in a broad market selloff yesterday. The decline in stock prices was led by a sharp drop in Apple which tumbled 5,5% to USD 402,80. Apple has fallen USD 250 since its peak last autumn. A key chipmaker, Cirrus, simultaneously presented a disappointing revenue forecast. This together with the slowing demand for Apple products, fuelled market worries about a weakening demand for iPhone and iPad. The financial sector was also hard hit by weaker than expected results from Bank of America.

Wednesday’s losses represented the second day of big sell-off during this week. It adds to fears that the market is starting the pullback analysts have been speculating in for months. Expectations have outdistanced economic fundamentals. Monetary easing has additionally injected fresh speculative capital into equities. This development has led to stock rallies without roots in the real economy creating new bubbles.

Investors’ optimism have been based on expectations of a stronger economic growth in China and a recovery in the US. There are positive signs in both markets, but the world economy is still dragged down by an ever deeper recession inside the Euro zone. The plunge in gold and metal prices and a simultaneous selloff of stocks bear striking similarities with the situation in 2008 where stock markets were running off from realities to end with a hard landing. Bankers’ wild speculations contributed to the misery which led to a financial crisis in the second half of the year where the liberal orientated economic market model was put at serious risk.

Is history in the process of repeating itself?

Nervousness and risk aversion has also plaid into the currency market where the euro come under pressure. Euro/USD fell from Wednesday high on 1.3172 to 1.3043 on talk of more monetary easing by the European Central Bank. USD/JPY trades marginally up at 98,03 indicating a continued slid in the yen and a new test on the symbolic 100 yen a dollar level. The Australian dollar is steady after trimming earlier losses due to the fall in gold and metals and a weaker growth in China.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Fri Apr 19, 2013 2:10 am

19 APRIL 2013: VOLATILITY REFLECTS BEARISH MOOD

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Wall Street fell further yesterday after disappointing forecasts by eBay and other heavy weight US-companies. Present quarterly results raise increased doubt on the market’s recent strength. eBay dropped 5,9%, and Apple shares extended their slide from Wednesday breaking the USD 400 level. The S&P technology index fell 1,4% after two sharp declines earlier in the week. The volatility index, Wall Street’s fear index, gained 6,4 as a reflex of increased market nervousness. Other decliners included Morgan Stanley. The flagship bank fell 5,4% adding to the bearish mood.

As global policymakers started their G-20 meetings in Washington yesterday there is growing concern about currency fluctuations and volatility. Key central banks are printing money and pumping new liquidity into markets. This tends to create more speculative bubbles than working places. The yen (JPY) fell broadly Friday morning after the Japanese Finance Minister stated that Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) aggressive monetary stimulus is aimed at defeating deflation. USD/JPY trades at 98,53 with the dollar raising 0,4%.

As the G20 meeting ends today there are deep worries on what easily can develop into a currency war. In its semi-annual report on currency practices US put Japan on notice. Japan’s economic policies are watched closely to ensure that Japan is not aiming at devaluing the yen to gain competitive advantage. Competitors in South East Asia as South Korea are especially concerned. A rapid raise in dollar versus Yen at these level, seems, however, not likely. USD/JPY has already depreciated 20% since last November. A strong short term gain in USD/JPY might, however, occur after the G-20 meeting is over. G-20 is expected to confirm the pledge from February to avoid competitive currency devaluations.

Euro/USD recovered to 1.3068 after a sharp drop during yesterday. In a meeting on Thursday the EU agreed to move ahead with a system of winding down banks without changing EU law. This would give the EU bank resolution mechanism a stronger legal basis. The resolution comes after a stormy debate in the European Parliament where both the EU Commission and the European Central bank came under heavy fire for their handling of the Cyprus banking crisis. In an interview the EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary affairs, Olli Rehn, stated that changes to EU-treaties are more a long term goal than a condition for a banking union to operate.

The recent plunge in gold prices have led to a rally in India and China to buy gold and silver coins and products. Retail buyers see the steep fall in prices as a buying opportunity. Gold trades at USD 1398 up from a bottom level on 1322 earlier in the week. Silver has rebounded from USD 22,76 to 23,46. It is, too, early, to say whether we are witnessing a more firm upward trend; or increasing prices shall be seen as a natural technical correction.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:11 am

22 APRIL 2013: GOLD REBOUNDS USD/JPY 99,84

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Last week was dominated by an extraordinary fall of USD 250 fall in gold prices and heavy losses in other commodities. Gold demonstrated, however, strong resilience and staged a rebound. Gold is hundred dollar up from the bottom of USD 1322 an ounce last week. Copper is still weak. While Brent crude again trades above USD 100 a barrel. Strong retail buying in Indian and China strengthened gold which was seen as a buying opportunity. Gold reached the USD 1400 mark on Friday and trades at 1422 in Asia. Many investors have kept their strong faith in gold on expectations of high inflation and governments being unable to deal with it, and continues to buy gold.

The G-20 meeting in Washington ended on Friday without any conclusive results. Since 2010 the group has turned from being a cohesive group of the world’s most important economies into a body that spends hours of negotiating the punctuation in a communique. Japan was the focus for attention. In spite of the fact that the Japanese yen, JPY, has depreciated 20% in relation to most currencies since November last year, G-20 accepted Japan’s explanation that its monetary policy is aimed at price stabilization and economic recovery. Its strong monetary easing does not intend to manipulate its exchange rate.

As expected JPY as a result of the meeting, continued to slide in Asia this morning. USD/JPY reached 99,84 and is again licking the symbolic 100 level which most likely is going to be broken during the day encouraged by the Group of 20 endorsing of Japan’s reflationary policies. Following the meeting, players feel comfortable selling the yen further. Asian shares inched higher, but investors remained wary of volatility given the uncertainty of global growth prospects. Global stock markets might be on the verge of a selloff.

The International Monetary Fund, IMF’s forecasts for the G-20 meeting were out of date no sooner than it was presented. Weaker US labor market figures and Chinese economic growth in the first quarter, make it necessary to downgrade growth forecasts for the world economy. The G-20 meeting also given another stark warning that economic forecasts is not any precise science. The Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart’s have since 2010 postulated that when debt reaches 90% of Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth automatically fell. This postulate has been the basis for government’s austerity measures especially in the Euro zone.

An Excel error put serious question marks with the evidence the economist have built their postulate on. For the first time in years it thereby is possible to put questions with postulates presented as science. The austerity measures in Europe are as most other economic theories are based on political attitudes. When such postulates end up in mass unemployment and social misery it might be right time to take a break and ask whether the austerity measures resulting in mass unemployment and social misery are the right prescribed medicine.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:00 am

23 APRIL 2013: ASIA FALLS ON WEAKER CHINESE PMI

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Asian shares and other riskier assets lost ground on Tuesday after a preliminary reading showed weaker Chinese manufacturing growth in April. HSBC’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, PMI, fell in April and added to concerns about global growth prospects. HSBC’s report is the first economic indicator for the second quarter of 2013. It follows weaker-than-expected first quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth and a contraction in export pointing to fragile global demand.

April PMI-numbers fell to 50,5 from 51.6 in March. The numbers are nevertheless higher than February’s 50,4, and in in no way disastrous. The April PMI reinforces, however, market concerns about a stagnating and slowing Chinese economy. Stock market rallies especially in the United States have been based on expectations of a stronger US recovery and Chinese growth. The latest PMI takes some of this belief away and is a strong indication that the stock market rally might be over for now.

Both Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks fell. The Shanghai SEC fell 1,4% and the Japanese Nikkei slipped 0,1% after surging up 2,2 percent on Monday; close to a five-years high. After USD/JPY reached 99,95 on April 11, a breakthrough of the 100 mark has been expected. Instead the USD fell back to 98,60 yen after reaching 99,90 in early trade yesterday. Weak US-housing data weighed in on the strength of the dollar. USD firmed against the Euro trading at 1.3043. Comments from the European Central Bank, ECB, suggest the bank might consider lowering interest rates in light of mass unemployment and low inflation.

Gold has recovered strongly from last week’s tumble trading at USD 1427 an ounce. More gold outflows from exchange-traded funds stress, however, a weakened confidence in the precious metal and possible further drops. While gold is slightly up from Monday, silver is losing ground. Copper prices continue to fall with 0,6% on the London metal exchange. Brent crude stays above USD 100 a barrel, but crude futures are pointing down.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby MAYZUS-Neeraj » Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:55 am

24 APRIL 2013: APPLE LIFTS ASIA AFTER FALSE TWEET

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Apple climbed 4,9% to USD 425,95 in after closing trade yesterday night after reporting strong second quarter earnings. Apple also unveiled plans to double the amount of capital returned to shareholders after for a long time being heavily criticized for not sharing excessive profits. The Apple quarterly report made stock markets in Asia to rally. Wall Street recovered Tuesday after initial sharp declines sparked by an Associated Press tweet about explosions in the White House.

The false tweet by hackers of two explosions at the White House that injured US President Barack Obama, provoked a steep drop in stocks. The benchmark S&P index fell 16,6 points or close to one percent in 3 minutes. Index values of USD 136 billion were wiped out. Stocks quickly recovered minutes later. The tweet episode illustrates the advantages, but simultaneously the fall outs of an instantaneous pricing technology.

Asian shares advanced on Wednesday on the back of Apple and other solid US quarterly earnings. The Euro came under pressure by soft German data which underscored the fragile state of the euro zone economy. The Asia-Pacific MSCI-index climbed 0,8%. The Australian stock index gained 1.4% along with a firmer Aussie dollar. The positive US numbers also gave a lift to oil and other commodities. Copper is up after several day’s decline. Brent crude trades at USD 100,54 a barrel. Gold (USD 1426) and silver (USD 23,15) prices are up after falling back during yesterday’s trading.

The more positive tone in global equities markets seem to indicate that investors regard continued monetary easing by major central banks as justified. Monetary easing encourages investments in shares. But that also means that stock markets don’t reflect the real economic fundamentals. Equities continue to rally in spite of sluggish manufacturing surveys and weaker economic data from both the US and China, the two major engines in the global economy.

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