Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:35 am

05 MARCH 2013: SPECIAL REPORT: CYPRUS STARTS BAILOUT TALKS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Michailis Sarris, the newly appointed Minister of finance in President Nikos Anastasiades’ government, met yesterday with his Western European colleagues in Brussels in an effort to hammer out a bailout agreement with international lenders. Cyprus needs about Euro 17 billion in aid of which 10 billion is needed to shore up the banking sector. That is fraction of what has been pledged to Greece. For Cyprus with a gross domestic product (GDP) on 18 billion it represents a colossal sum.

Speaking prior to the Ministerial meeting which is expected to focus on options to address the debt crisis in Cyprus and over renewed concerns over the future of the Euro following the Parliamentary elections in Italy. In the elections one week ago Italy rejected in large numbers reforms and austerity measures demanded by the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Mario Monti, a former EU-commissioner which for the last year has headed a caretaker government, obtained only 10 % of the electoral votes.

Cyprus is following in the footsteps of Greece, Ireland and Portugal as the fourth country inside the Euro zone to ask for a bailout. Cyprus faces a bond repayment of Euro 1,4 billion in June. The European Union wants consequently that Nicosia reach a deal with the so-called troika of international lenders (EU-Commission, ECB and IMF) by end of March.

Troika-representatives have negotiated with the previous AKEL, a communist-led government for the last months. These talks stalled at disagreements on terms including the privatization of government assets. The Christofias-government sought aid from Russia before finally accepting a European bailout. Christofias succeeded two years ago in obtaining a Euro 4 Billion loan from Russia on favorable terms. There are now negotiations on prolonging this loan from 5 to 10 years.


Mr. Sarris stated that he did think it is necessary to make major changes to a draft bail-out agreement reached with the previous government. Sarris warned against taking an overly aggressive approach to combating money-laundering which he feared could only worsen the fragile economy of the island.

Worried by the threats for a “hair-cut” on investors deposits billions of Euros have over the last months left Cyprus for safer banks and locations as Latvia. Sarris stressed that these outflows already had been very damaging to the Cyprus banking system and worked against the common objective to stabilize the banking system. Sarris who served as a Minister of Finance between 2005 and 2008, is a former World Bank economist.

Cyprus has since the breakthrough of the Soviet Union been one of the preferred “safe havens” for Russian flight capital which have contributed heavily to Cyprus prosperity and made it possible for the three banks, Bank of Cyprus, Laiki and Hellenic bank, to take big exposures in Greek treasury bills and unsecured loans to Greek individuals. Totally the loans given to Greece over the last years are estimated to Euro 27 billion.

Prominent European politicians and especially Germans have lately stressed that Cyprus with its low taxes (10 5 flat taxation on company net profit) and lax banking regulation, have made the island a hub for money laundering.

This has been strongly rejected by the previous government. The new government also rejects these accusations. In a token that Cypriots want to maintain some level of banking secrecy to lure investors and financial services (the FX industry in Cyprus has boomed over the last years), Mr. Sarris said that there was great skepticism in Cyprus about money-laundering investigations. That would mean that anybody who has any money in the banking system has to have their name analysed and reported when they have nothing to hide.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Mar 06, 2013 3:40 am

06 MARCH 2013: INCREASED RISK APPETITE ON DOW’S RECORD-HIGH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Asian shares extended gains on Wednesday following Wall Street’s record close. The Industrial average index, Dow Jones, ended at an all-time high as the pan-European Euro first 300 index closed at its highest level in 4-and-a-half year. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific added 0,9% while the Japanese Nikkei surged 1,3%. Copper, crude oil and commodity related currencies are all up. The USD DXY-index eased 0,2% against a basket of currencies.

The markets were spurred by fast February growth in the huge US services sector and bolstered by China’s announcement of record government spending in 2013. These factors boosted investors’ sentiment and hopes of economic growth and increased demand for gods. EURO, British sterling, GBP, and JPY which have been the big losers over the last weeks, have consolidated and gained some ground. Euro/USD trades at 1.3065. USD/JPY is at 93.22.

The strong rally in the stock markets is partially a product of the monetary easing policies conducted by the US Federal Reserve since last summer and followed intentionally and in practice by several other Western central banks. There have been a lot a spare capital on the side lines waiting to strike. Over the last weeks and months we have witnessed a recirculation of capital into the more risk prone equity market. The new records are a result of this recirculation. Major investors are gambling on a turnaround in the global economy and pushed their free cash into stocks in spite of the problems in the Eurozone and an overheated Chinese property market.

Oil prices are also up this morning. Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez lost his two years long fight with cancer and passed away this morning 58 years old. Venezuela is one of the biggest oil producing countries in the world, and Chavez has led a policy where a substantial part of the country’s oil riches have been transferred to the poor and have-nots. Chavez has also been a guarantor for domestic political stability and encouraged other Latin American countries to follow his suit. It remains to be seen whether the power vacuum created by his death is filled in such a way that political unrest and renewed pressure on oil prices are avoided.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:01 am

07 MARCH 2013: GBP AND EURO FACE STRONG PRESSURE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


A solid job report showing that US private employers added a larger-than-expected 198 000 jobs in February, gave the dollar a strong boost yesterday, trading at its highest level against a basket of currencies in 6-1/2 months. Both the Euro and Pound sterling (GBP) are under strong downward pressure. Euro/USD dipped below 1.30 and trades at 1.2990 prior to meeting in the ECB, European Central Bank, later today. USD/GBP traded below the critical 1.50 level on rumors on monetary easing.

While the job data fueled hopes that the US economy is improving, the British pound fell to its lowest level in 2-1/2-year as market players positioned for more stimulus from the Bank of England (BOE). The strict austerity measures introduced by the British government over the last two years have not been working, and the UK economy is facing the threat of triple-dip recession. While BOE and other central banks are considering the same monetary easing policies as the US FED has practiced, US is debating whether to exit their bond buying program.

After the dollar index, DXY, hit, a bottom level of 78,918, in the beginning of February it has rallied 4% since. The stronger employment data along with better housing figures are likely to fuel speculation that fed will end its bond buying program sooner than expected in spite of FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke’s strong statement to the contrary only weeks ago.

Of the three major Western central banks; ECB, BOE and FED, BOE is the most likely to act in favor of more easing. Three of BOE’s members voted in favor of quantitative easing last month. It is expected that a majority this week will opt for a moderate 25-billion-pound balance sheet expansion. That would put sterling under further strong pressure. ECB meets in Frankfurt today on the backdrop of a political deadlock in Italy and prospects for a further fall in the Euro. It is, however, expected that ECB will keep its policies unchanged.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Mar 08, 2013 4:08 am

08 MARCH 2013: USD/JPY RALLIES BEFORE US JOBS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The dollar surged to its highest level against Japanese yen in 3-1/2-year before US job numbers for February are going to be presented later today. USD stands at 95,43 yen up 0,6% since yesterday. It is expected that that the US economy last month created net 160 000 new jobs. The unemployment rate still stands at 7,9% far from the 6,5% which the Federal Reserve (FED) has set as target for ending monetary easing.

Investors waiting for more dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) at its press conference yesterday was disappointed. The single currency posted its biggest rally this year and jumped more than 100 points against the dollar and stands at 1.3092 after flirting with 1.29 figures earlier in the week. ECB President Mario Draghi plaid down the threat of contagion to other euro members following the Italian political stalemate. Draghi stressed growing market confidence in the Euro which had EURO bears quickly to cover short positions.

The Euro skyrocketed 2% to 124,57 against the JPY. It stood at 118,74 last week. The 34 month peak of 127,71 set last month is thereby brought back in play. The rally might, however, be short played with investor’s attention back on Chinese trade data and whether the US unemployment rate will stay at 7.9%.

Bank of England (BOE) kept its guns yesterday and held fire on the expected more economic stimulus. The downward pressure on British sterling (GBP) continues, however. USD/GBP trades again below 1.50 after seeing some recovery yesterday. There is no change in the choppy trading pattern in commodity related currencies. Oil prices are steady. Gold fell back from USD 1583 an ounce reached yesterday to 1567 this morning.

The stock rally in the United States continue. Dow Jones ended at record high for the third straight day boosted by expectations of a pick-up in the payrolls report. Growth oriented sectors led the gains with strong jumps in Bank of America (up 2,9%) and JP Morgan Chase (1,2%). Worries about the path of US fiscal policy and the Euro zone crisis loom, however, in the background. For the moment the Bulls are in advance.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:19 am

11 MARCH 2013: US-DOLLAR KEEPS THE UPPER HAND

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The USD keeps the upper hand in the currencies markets and continue to gain both against a currency basket and major currencies as Euro, GBP and JPY. USD/JPY traded at 96,10 – a 3-and-a-half year high following surprisingly strong USD labor data on Friday. US employers added a more-than-expected 236 000 workers to their payrolls in February. The jobless rate fell to a four year low of 7,7%.

There is still a way to go before the unemployment numbers reach the 6,5% target set by the Federal Reserve (FED) and monetary easing is reconsidered. Before this target is obtained the US economy must produce more than 200 000 monthly jobs for the next three consecutive months. The strong February data has, however, created a momentum and new optimism that the US economy finally is turning and lying the financial crisis from the autumn 2008 behind.

Risk appetite was, however, curbed by a mixed bag of economic data from China painting a patchy recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. The data signaled a looming dilemma for policymakers, as inflation stood at a 10 month high in February. Factory output and consumer spending were weaker than forecast. The data caught commodity prices between growing optimism of increased consumption and a stronger dollar. Non-dollar holders are buying dollar-denominated commodities.

In Asia the MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific was up 0,1% while Shanghai fell 0,3%. The Dow Jones industrial average posted its fourth consecutive record high on Friday. European shares also jumped on the strong US labor data. The strength of the dollar is also a reflection of more fundamental money flows out of the yen and euro. These developments nudge the dollar higher. Currency speculators are boosting their bets in favor of USD and raised their short positions in most other currencies as yen, pound sterling GBP and Euro. Oil and precious metal prices keep steady.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:01 pm

11 MARCH 2013: SPECIAL REPORT ON CYPRUS: CRITICAL TROIKA TALKS CONTINUE IN CYPRUS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Cyprus will this week continue to fight for the terms and conditions of the bail-out principally agreed in Brussels. While the new president, Nikos Anastasiades, during the election campaign stressed that semi-governmental organizations (SGOs) would be left untouched this is now coming to a crucial test.

It also seems that the international lenders have turned up the heat, asking Cyprus to raise its corporate tax and introduce a tax (levy) on capital gains and a financial transaction tax to ensure it can repay a bailout.

No final decisions are taken, but Eurozone officials stress that these options are on the table. In his former interviews Anastasiades has stressed that privatizations of CYTA telecommunications, the Electricity authority, Port Authority and Cyprus Tourist Organization might be postponed for might be three years depending on recovery and progress on other reforms.

A privatization of CYTA is said to give approximately Euro 2 billion in state coffers, but has created an outcry among unions which fear loss of working places.

Eurozone officials have also indicated that Cyprus would have to give up its favorable 10 % tax on net profit which corporations are enjoying today. An increase to 12,5 % has been indicated. The low corporate tax rate is one of the few competitive advantages that Cyprus enjoy compared with other EU destinations. The low corporate tax is one of the major reasons why especially companies from Northern Europe over the last years since Cyprus entered the EU has settled daughter companies here.

During a meeting between the Governor of the Cyprus Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the end of last week, IMF reportedly rejected the figure needed for a recapitalization of the Cypriot banks. While the government has stressed that the international financial company, PIMCO’s figure were too, high, IMF is of the opposite opinion. IMNF claims that PIMCO’s figures are far, too, optimistic.

The capital gain tax which the Governor of CBC indicated last week shall be applied to domestic and foreign depositors alike, and is expected to provide the government with an extra revenue of 200 – 3000 million Euro. The tax is said to be set at 0,01 % of the value of trades for derivatives and 0,1 % for stock and bonds.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:28 am

12 MARCH 2013: ASIAN STOCKS HIGHER ON RECORD WALL STREET

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Wall Street’s record close overnight bolstered most Asian shares on Tuesday. Growing confidence in the US economy underpinned investors risk appetite. The Japanese yen slipped to fresh lows on speculation over imminent monetary easing. USD/JPY stands at a new low of 96,51. JPY is losing ground also against Euro and Australian dollar. Euro/USD is trading at 1.3027.

The US stock indexes extended its winning streak to seven sessions and touched its highest intraday level since October 2007. Dow Jones closed at a record high 14 447. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific also continued up led by financials echoing US trading where finance were the best performing sector. Also Australia, Hong Kong and Shanghai were up as the Japanese Nikkei. The weaker yen is giving exporters a welcomed boost and Nikkei was up for the eight day in row.

The dollar index, DXY, has benefited from last week’s strong labor data, and continues to jump against the yen. Analysts stress that dollar/yen may take a pause in the second quarter when seasonal weaknesses typically slow US economic indicators. They see a possible USD/JPY downside on 92 yen to a dollar with strong technical support around the 90 level. For now the trend is clearly towards a continued weaker yen.

Euro/USD is steady at 1.3030 level. The Euro is under pressure from Italy’s inconclusive last month elections which are weighing in and delaying the country’s fiscal reform efforts. Gold has edged to 1883 marginally up from yesterday. In new York US crude, NYMEX, traded up 0,2% at USD 92,21 a barrel. Brent crude trades up from below 110 to USD 110,20 a barrel.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:37 am

13 MARCH 2013: FEAR OF TRIPLE DIP RECESSION PUTS GBP UNDER PRESSURE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Fears of a triple-dip recession put new downward pressure on British Sterling (GBP) yesterday. January data showed a surprise fall in British industrial output. This pushed GBP down to a low level of $1.482. USD/GBP has since recovered and trades 0,2% to 1.4933. The state of the British economy is highly questionable. Some analysts are waiting an even weaker British sterling, and expect to see that USD/GBP can fall as low as 1.35.

Asian shares fell on Wednesday as the recent stock rally run seems to run out of steam. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific outside Japan fell 0,6%. Stocks in Australia, Hong Kong and mainland China also fell from 0,6 to 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial, however, posted a new record high rising for the eight straight day on Tuesday. European shares retreated just short of fresh 4-and-a-half year high. Some investors fear that stocks have risen, too, quickly without fundamental support. Investors might be more risk willing, but are still scared by past events as the financial crisis in 2008 where fingers were burnt.

USD/JPY which fell to a low of 96,71 yesterday, trades today at 95,87 reflecting fears that the yen has fallen, too, steeply. The Nikkei stock index retreated 0,5% on profit taking after the last days strong rally; boosting exporters taking advantage of a weaker yen.

Euro/USD is steady in the interval between 1,3030 and 1.3040. It was weighed down on Tuesday by a warning from the Chairman of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, who is also on the board of ECB, the European Central Bank. Weidmann stated that euro crisis in no way is over. In other developments drought has put the New Zealand agricultural dependent currency under pressure.

NYMEX crude is up to USD 92,71 a barrel while Brent crude is weaker at 109,64. Gold, silver and copper are all up 0,2% clinging to gains earlier in the week. Gold trades at USD 1592. In yesterday’s daily report, March 12th, gold prices due to a printing error were said to be marginally up USD 1883. The real price was 1583. Regular readers of the Daily Report would have observed that gold prices lately has been in the interval between USD 1550 and 1585.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Thu Mar 14, 2013 4:11 am

14 MARCH 2013: RETAIL REPORT BOOSTS DOW TO NEW HIGH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Surprisingly strong retail sales helped the Dow Jones Industrial to rise for the ninth straight session in a stock rally not seen since 1996. The new record high posted for DOW is 14 455. Also Nasdaq edged higher to 3 245. Trading volume was light with investors consolidating positions after a strong run up in the three first months of the year. Sign of strength in the economy and the Federal Reserve’s (FED) monetary easing have accelerated the advance of US equities, but many investors are asking whether we are in for a technical correction. The retail sales report helped underscore the impression that the economy is gaining momentum.

Asian shares fell for the second day in row with regional factors outweighing the positive sentiments from another Wall Street record close. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific was down 0,6%. Australia plunged 1% in spite of positive employment numbers. The Australian dollar reacted positive to the employment news and hit a five-week high. The Japanese Nikkei bucked the negative trend and added 0,4%. Net inflows in Japanese mutual funds reached USD 11 billion in February. A domestic stock rally for the last four months have increased investor’s appetite for Japanese stocks.

Monetary policy direction remains diverse in Asia as countries also watch development in Chinese economy and North Korea closely. Japan wants powerful monetary easing to get out of a vicious deflation spiral harming its economy for two decades. Other central bankers are fearful of inflation. South Korea has been holding the interest rate steady at 2,75% for the last half year.

The Australian dollar jumped to USD 1,0383 after employment soared by 71 000 in February. JPY continues to gain strengthen against USD trading at 96,03 down from its 96,71 peak on Tuesday. Euro/JPY has also retreated from its record high on Tuesday. The brighter forecast for the US economy has negatively affected the Euro trading down to 1,2947. The yield on Italian short and long term bonds increased during yesterday’s auction, the first after the rating agency Fitch downgraded Italy’s credit rating in February. Investor’s attention will today turn to the Spanish bond auction.

Oil prices, gold and silver have dropped since yesterday. NYMEX crude trades at USD 92,28 a barrel. Brent crude is down to 108,40. Gold trades at USD 1586 an ounce.

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Re: Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Postby UWC Neeraj » Fri Mar 15, 2013 5:37 am

15 MARCH 2013: STOCK MARKET GROWTH SMILE ON US DOLLAR

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments



The Dow Jones Industrial rose for a 10th straight day in a stock rally not seen since 1996, and ended up 0,6% at 14 539. This followed a strong session in Europe. In Asia stocks rose again this morning after two loss making sessions. The rally was spurred by new US- labor market data showing a fall in the weekly numbers applying for. The data reflects that the American economy is steadily improving. A raft of recent data from retail sales and manufacturing to employment and housing have shown that the US economy is gathering steam.

In contradiction to former historical stock rallies where the green buck was used as some kind of a life jacket, the USD has this time benefited greatly on the stock market’s surge to new highs and improved economic data. Against a basket of currency, DXY, the dollar has reached a seven month high. Since January USD/JPY has jumped from 86,67 to over 96. Pound Sterling, GBP, has fallen from 1.62 to a bottom of 1.4832 earlier this week. The moves suggest that the dollar has entered a multi-year bull cycle where the dollar has outperformed nine of the major G-10 currencies.

Political uncertainty in Italy has re-ignited fear about the euro zone’s debt crisis and put new pressure on the Euro. Weak economic growth and prospects of aggressive monetary easing in Japan and Britain have driven the yen and GBP to multi-year lows. Spending cuts in Washington could for sure damper US economic growth and the FED has further pledged to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future. But capital flows continue to rotate in the favor of US-assets and strengthen both the US economy and the dollar.

The dollar strength against JPY and Euro took a little breather on Friday. USD/JPY trades at 96,03 down from the peak of 96,71 on Tuesday. If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) follows up on its declared strong monetary easing policies, USD/JPY is likely to trade in a future range between 95 – 105. If BOJ disappoints the trading range is expected to be 86 – 96. Euro/USD was in the short term strengthened by a positive Spanish bond auction on Thursday. It trades at 1.3010. Pound sterling and Australian dollar were yesterday’s winners. The Aussie added another 0,8% after another one percentage jump on good employment numbers on Wednesday.

British pound surged yesterday as investors scrambled to cover short positions made on expectations of more quantitative easing by the Bank of England. The Bank’s Governor stated that GDP according to his opinion is properly valued and not seeking further depreciation. GDP was helped by rumors that Qatar is planning to invest billions of GBP into British infrastructure projects. The GDP yesterday’s 1% gain is the biggest seen in seven months.

These short term gains are nevertheless not expected to have any major medium or long term impact. The long medium and long term outlook point towards a stronger USD both in relation to Euro, JPY, GDP and most other currencies. These forecasts for Euro/USD point to a new test on former bottom levels 1.19 – 1.20. It is also predicted that USD/GBP can drop as low as 1.35. The corridor range 95 – 105 is the most likely medium term scenario for USD/JPY.

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