MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.07.2015
This evening the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy statement.
This announcement comes against the backdrop off falling oil, commodity prices and the collapse in the price of Chinese equities.
The widening of the Greek financial crisis for now has it seems been averted but there are still concerns that the rebels within the ruling SYRIZA party may cause enough ripples which could slow down the implementation of the third Greek austerity program.
The FOMC has had on its agenda for a long time the view that there needs to be a normalization of the interest rate environment. Therefore unless the current external financial instability becomes globally disruptive the FOMC will most likely stick to its present course of hiking rates gradually.
The question is when the FOMC will raise rates? Will it be September or December? A couple of weeks back the likelihood was that the Fed would pass on the opportunity to raise interest rates in September and look to launch its interest rate nominalization program in December. In recent weeks however we have seen an improvement in US economic data and a stabilization in the job numbers.
Therefore, it now looks like we see lift off in September. We may get some indication today from the Federal Reserve that this is their plan however with a lack of market news and the holiday season well and truly underway I would expect quiet days trading before we finally see a pick of activity this evening.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1171
Target 2: 1.0947
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112
Daily control level: 1.1020
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5721
Target 2: 1.5505
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 1.5520
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 124.26
Target 2: 122.84
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71
Daily control level: 123.80
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9710
Target 2: 0.9532
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089
Daily control level: 0.9600
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.3022
Target 2: 1.2820
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.3050
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7414
Target 2: 0.7249
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084
Daily control level: 0.7250
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1110.12
Target 2: 1079.52
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.30
Daily control level: 1105.00
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 49.33
Target 2: 46.25
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54
Daily control level: 49.00
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