MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.07.2015
With the deadline looming for the Greek debt proposal due no later than tomorrow morning and with crucial European summits due to take place over the weekend the level of uncertainty and anxiety continues to blanket Greece.
This uncertainty has forced the Greek Government to extend the limit of EUR 60 a day ATM allowance until Monday. After Monday, the fate of the Greek people is in the hands of European and Greek politicians who have shown themselves incapable of making correct decisions.
The move to extend the banking restrictions follows on from the decision by the European Central Bank to put on hold any further Emergency Liquidity Assistance until the debt crisis is resolved.
With the Greek Prime Minister saying that he will present plans on Thursday to his European partners the end game of this phase of the Greek crisis is now very close.
With the creditor’s position now hardening a failure of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to take into account the gravity of the situation will lead to dire consequences and immediate hardship for the Greek nation.
One can only assume that a failure to broker a compromise solution after what has been 5 wasted and fruitless months of negotiations is that Alexis Tsipras never had an intention of striking a deal. The bottom line is the Greek Premier wanted from the outset is total European capitulation or a return to the Drachma.
This may be a very harsh view. However the manner of the negotiation which can be summed up as a win or bust strategy was never going to work. There was just too much resistance within the European Union to what they saw a radical left Government that was intent to turn around the order of things.
The Europeans made mistakes too. The original sin was of course the creation of a Frankenstein currency that destroyed the economies of the periphery European nations. The only nation to really benefit from the creation of the Euro was Germany which took the opportunity of the cheap single currency to export its way out of recession at the expense of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, aka the PIIGS.
The debt deal that was constructed by the creditors was designed not to assist Greece but was engineered with the assistance of the IMF had only one aim in mind. That was to get the German and French banks off the hook.
There was no attempt to help the Greek people and Greek business to grow themselves out of the mess that corrupt and inept politicians in partnership with the foreign banks had got the country into.
There is a need of course to reform the public sector and pension system but Greece is a country that has no safety net. The austerity that was imposed on the country only damaged the Greek public. The German and French bankers and the leaders of the political elite of the PASOK and Nea Democratia party continue to live their life of privilege as they enjoyed their lavish villas and drive around in their high performance German automobiles.
The election victory that SYRIZA achieved some 5 months back was inevitable as the Greek public had enough of the wasted opportunities of its political elite. When Tsipras took power, he proclaimed that reform was at the centre of his agenda. However evidence of this is nowhere to be seen.
My real concern is not for Greek or European politicians but for the tax payers of Europe who have paid for the decisions and mistakes made in their name. Without doubt there is a need for change in Europe. I just hope that the politicians either side of this current divide recognize that they have an obligation to Europe’s citizens to get us out of this mess.
I personal would like nothing more but never have to write about this subject again as it has become rather tedious.
I therefore urge all sides to compromise enough to get us through to Monday. Once there, the real work of reforming Europe begins.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1203
Target 2: 1.0949
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127
Daily control level: 1.0900
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5469
Target 2: 1.5249
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5650
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 121.67
Target 2: 119.71
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.98
Daily control level: 123.00
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9554
Target 2: 0.9350
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102
Daily control level: 0.9385
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2846
Target 2: 1.2644
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101
Daily control level: 1.2675
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7518
Target 2: 0.7338
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 0.7370
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1170.80
Target 2: 1145.88
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.46
Daily control level: 1175.30
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 53.59
Target 2: 50.05
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.77
Daily control level: 54.00
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