MORNING BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.03.2015
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
With all the main central banks due to make announcement and with it being NFP day this Friday it looks like to another volatile and hectic week in the life of a EURUSD trader.
The price action has now well and truly broken its triangle formation with this mornings price activity breaching Thursday’s low.
This opens up the possibility for a potential move down to the 1.1100 prior weekly swing level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1245 level.
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
With the Bank of England Governor due to speak tomorrow the markets will be looking for signs of any hawkishness on interest rate policy.
We have had a strong pull back to the 1.5400 level which has broken the down channel.
However I am not not convinced that the down trend will continue.
I really want to see a sustained move under the 1.5400 level.
This leads us back tomorrow and the tone and the areas of grey in Mr. Carney’s testimony.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
During Friday afternoon the Dollar bulls took control of the market and pushed USDJPY higher.
This move as continued into this morning with USDJPY testing and trading above the 119.80 level.
The recent price action has now created a fairly broad up channel.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.10 level.
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
The 0.9450 level did provide strong support and a base for higher prices which Friday’s price action testing last weeks high.
This mornings price action has completed the job by painting a new recent high and in the process creating a much more broader and potentially more sustainable up channel.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9450 level.
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
The markets would seem to have priced in a rate cut tomorrow by Australia Reserve Bank.
This could potentially be the reason behind the recent collapse in the value of the Aussie which has seen the price action breach the bottom of no less than two up channels.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7830 level.
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Gold continues to trade higher in a staircase formation.
However the steepness of the up trend does cause me some concern.
I would therefore like to see a broadening of the up channel.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1204.00 level.
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Friday’s price action has had the effect of breaching the large down channel.
Although this type of price action could be seen as a warning signal that the down trend is about to reverse I would really need to see a successful retest of the 49.80 level being the area of the most recent isolated high to be convinced that a new up trend is underway.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 51.00 level.
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