Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 19th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday EURUSD did manage to breach the over head trend line resistance only for the price action to fall back and close higher but under this level.
Market open focus
This morning EURUSD has traded down some 50 pips from yesterday’s high but is trading well above yesterday’s low. I am currently monitoring if EURUSD will break higher and in gear with the intraday trend.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3439 to 1.3596.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where I am monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of the 15th November trading range which is in line with the low of today’s projected trading range.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move from today’s low of some 70 pips which is in within the upper limit of today’s projected high of the daily range.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 19th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday GBPUSD experience a narrow range day with some 70 odd pips separating the high to the low. This is well below the daily average of 100 pips. GBPUSD continues to trade above the swing high of the 6th November and above both the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD has open and is trading in the middle of yesterday’s range. We are monitoring a possible initial move to the high or low of this range.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.6050 to 1.6180.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades in between yesterday’s range. As this morning’s range is fairly tight an upside breach of the overnight high of 1.6148 could see GBPUSD make an attempt at reaching the multi month downward sloping trend line. However this would entail a move of 140 odd pips from the overnight low and therefore this might not be achievable during today’s session.
2. Alternatively a break beneath yesterday’s low could see GBPUSD make an attempt at breaching trend line support. This move will be well within the projected daily range.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 19th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDCHF traded and closed beneath Friday’s low following its attempt to breach trend line support. This move has taken USDCHF back into the area of between both positively layered averages.
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF is trading within yesterday’s New York range in what has so far been a quiet open.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9070 to 0.9165.
Today’s scenarios
1. With the price action now trading within moving average support and at trend line support a break above the overnight high of 0.9142 could see USDCHF attempt to trade up to the 15th November high.
2. Alternatively a breach of the New York session low of 0.9095 could see USDCHF breach trend line support and trade down to the 34 period moving averages.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The price action is trading within the positively layered moving averages and above trend line support after what has been a substantial downside correction. An upside break would have initial target of the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 19th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDJPY was unable to continue with its upward momentum as it broke beneath Friday’s low. However late in the session USDJPY did manage to correct somewhat and in the process the price action managed to close marginally above Friday’s low.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY has once again resumed its downward correction and has traded some 25 pips beneath yesterday’s low. I am monitoring price action to see if it can sustain a move beneath yesterday’s low.
The price action has move some 88 pips lower off the 15th November high. This exceeds a daily true range projection by some 18 pips. Therefore USDJPY may find it needs to retrace somewhat before moving lower. The upside project is 100.25.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring if USDJPY can bounce off the trend line support with a resulting move taking the price action back up to at least the 100 level.
2. Alternatively a failure to sustain a move above the previous day’s low could see USDJPY trade back down to the area of the 13th November low at 99.10.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. The breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level now puts in play potential moves to both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels.
2. Alternatively failure to sustain a move above the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level added to the downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area could lead to USDJPY trading back deep into the prior triangle pattern.