Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 13th November 20133
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Comments
Yesterday EURUSD after initially trading lower reversed its direction and closed above the range of the previous two days.
Market open focus
This morning after initially trading higher off the open EURUSD has now reversed the small gains it made. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3360 to 1.3520.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded up to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where we are monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. A downside break could take EURUSD back into the previous two day’s trading range. The downside target for today is the area of yesterday’s low which is also in line the low of the projected maximum daily range at 1.3360.
2. Alternatively if EURUSD can penetrate and sustain a move above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move up to the bottom of the previously broken upward sloping trend line. This is a move of some 70 odd pips which is well within the upper limit of the projected maximum daily range at 1.3520.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 13th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Comments
Yesterday GBPUSD traded through the low of the 16th October. Although GBPUSD in the afternoon did manage to reverse some of its losses and closed and above the low of the 16th of October yesterdays move did however breach a prior swing low which effectively changes the daily trend from up to down.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD has broken down from its European open and trading at the lows of its overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5815 to 1.5980.
Today’s scenarios
1. As I write GBP is trading in a very tight opening range around the 1.5880 to 1.5905 area. A down side break will need to test and breach yesterdays low which is some 35 pips away. If a sustained break of yesterdays low is achieved a move down to the lower level of one average daily range at 1.5815 could become a possibility.
2. Alternatively as GBPUSD is fairly extended from its averages there is potential for sideways to upside correction. The 8 period moving average and broken trend line support is some 115 pips away which is slightly above the upper limit of the projected maximum daily range of some 94 pips but this target is potentially achievable.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following yesterday’s breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 13th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Comments
Yesterday USDCHF traded down to the 8 period moving averages as the price action moved away from trend line resistance. However the price action has for the fourth day opened up and trading within last Thursday’s range.
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF has traded within 10 pips either side of the European opening price and well with last night’s overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 0.9117 to 0.9220.
Today’s scenarios
1. This morning USDCHF has traded down to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for longs to be placed. The target any such move will be the high of the 7th November which is slightly above one average daily range of about 70 pips.
2. Alternatively the failure to break above the high of the four day range could lead to a breach of the 8 period moving averages. A potential move down could hit the target of the broken downward sloping trend line.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 13th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Comments
Yesterday USDJPY traded up to but stalled at converging triangle resistance. This move places the price action well within a possible Fibonacci resistance shorting area.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY broke lower from the open of the European session only to find support at the bottom of the overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price are 99.00 to 100.00.
Today’s scenarios
1. A breach and sustained move above trend line resistance puts in play a move to the upper level of the projected maximum daily range which is at the psychological 100 level.
2. Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to the 8 period moving averages. This would entail a move of some 80 pips which is slightly higher than the average daily range which is just under 70 pips.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. Yesterdays strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as the psychological 100 level is now in sight this barrier will have to be breached before both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels can be taken out.
2. Alternatively downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area and trend line resistance could offer a catalyst that pushes USDJPY back to trend line support.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 13th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday Gold continued to trade lower following Thursdays break down from its trading range and the 8 period moving averages.
Mark open focus
This morning Gold broke higher from this morning’s European open. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 1259.00 to 1280.00.
Today’s scenarios
1. A breach of yesterdays low puts into play a potential move to the low of the 14th October. A move to this area is just above the average daily range.
2. Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action becomes extended from the averages.
Macro Trade ideas
1. As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities with 28th June’s low at 1180.20 being the target.
2. Alternatively if Gold can hold above the 14th October low there is a possibility that a higher low is printed and a move to the 8 period moving averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 13th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday WTI traded beneath the low of the 5th November as it broke down from the 8 period moving averages.
Mark open focus
This morning WTI broke higher from this morning’s European open. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 92.05 to 94.25.
Today’s scenarios
1. Following the breakdown from the 8 period moving averages we are monitoring a potential breach of yesterday’s low with the initial target being trend line support. However a move to this level will exceed the average daily range of $1.37.
2. Alternatively a continued move above today’s open could see oil trade up to the 8 period moving averages.
Macro Trade ideas
1. WTI on a daily swing basis is trading with a negative trend and this is confirmed by the moving averages confirming this direction. The breach of the 6th November low will confirm the rejection of 8 period moving averages 93.50 resistance area. We are monitoring a potential move down to trend line support.
2. However the weekly time frame remains positive. This might indication the current daily down trend is a large corrective move. As the price action is now trading within weekly Fibonacci support a sustained break above the 8 period moving averages could see WTI trade up to the 34 period moving averages.
Macro technical levels
110.50, 107.65, 100.65, 100.40, 98.20, 92.50, 91.20, 89.30, 85.60, 84.50, 77.25