MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.10.2015
This week, there will be a plethora of Central Bankers commenting. However, with the ECB road show heading to Malta, the focus this week will be on this Thursday’s press conference.
The European Central Bank, President, Mr. Mario Draghi and his colleagues on the Governing Council will hold their scheduled policy meeting on October 21st to 22nd against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty over the timing of a the United States, Federal Funds increase.
There has over the past few months, been increasing speculation that the ECB will expand its current large stimulus program Eurozone economies continue to struggle. The problems facing Greece have for now been discreetly brushed under the carpet and a German industrial giant in the form of Volkswagen has now been hit by a major scandal which could damage the German economy.
Furthermore, with Governing Council member, Ewald Nowotny stating that CPI data is “clearly” below target, the prospect of a QE2 program would seemingly look more and more inevitable.
There has been chatter amongst analyst that Light Sweet Crude has put in a bottom and would soon be trading above its 200 period’s daily moving average. Crude, however, has failed to make any headway above its major daily averages and with the US50.00 per barrel area offering stiff resistance, the view that higher Oil prices in the medium term will bring inflation back on track is rather premature and unproven.
Much like their colleagues across the English Channel at the Bank of England and further afield at the United States Federal Reserve, the Central Bankers at the ECB are very much dependent on the data.
As the data has yet to confirm that Euroland has returned to sustainable growth, the prospect of the ECB extending the duration of the current QE program past September 2016 or increasing the size of the assets to be purchased becomes a possibility.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1415
Target 2: 1.1240
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090
Daily control level: 1.1380
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.5565
Target 2: 1.5360
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104
Daily control level: 1.5410
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 120.15
Target 2: 118.80
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.70
Daily control level: 120.35
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9645
Target 2: 0.9485
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081
Daily control level: 0.9495
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.3120
Target 2: 1.2910
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107
Daily control level: 1.2900
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7330
Target 2: 0.7160
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087
Daily control level: 0.7365
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1186.00
Target 2: 1155.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 15.66
Daily control level: 1178.00
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 48.50
Target 2: 45.00
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85
Daily control level: 45.75
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