Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 2nd December 2013
Yesterday’s summary
Friday EURUSD traded within a tight 25 pip range during the Tokyo and London sessions prior to taking a 19 pip leg lower during New York trading. EURUSD finally closed at the upward sloping trend line.
The technical reason for Friday’s small range can be seen by the price action being squeezed between forces of support and resistance.
Market open focus
This morning’s Tokyo session has seen EURUSD trade some 31 higher off Friday’s session low. With the price action now trading above the trend line, I am monitoring possible break outs of this morning range during London trading.
The key intraday levels to watch are: 1.3489, 1.3517, 1.3598, and 1.3622.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3535 to 1.3655.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD is trading within a 31 pip early morning range. I am monitoring potential shorts below 1.3598 with a target of 1.3535.
2. Alternatively a potential break above 1.3622 has an upside intraday target of 1.3655.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. The move back up to the averages and previously broken trend line has proved a good value area where shorts could be added. I am monitoring a continuation of the move down to the 7th November low at 1.3300 levels being a prior daily swing low.
2. Alternatively the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 1st September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 2nd December2013
Yesterday’s summary
Friday GBPUSD closed 27 pips higher in what was a fairly volatile trading day of that printed a 70 pip range
The technical reason behind Friday’s relatively volatile session could be put down to need for GBPUSD catch its breath prior to breaking higher. Furthermore with the price action trading up to the 1.6385 to 1.6400 area of prior resistance and if you add to this the Friday factor with traders not wishing to place bets and add exposure over the weekend gave GBPUSD an excuse of closing without making any decisive move through or bounce lower off the current overhead resistance area.
Market open focus
This morning’s Tokyo session has been relatively active with GBPUSD resuming its upward momentum and gaining some 90 pips from the Friday night low. I am monitoring a potential for further upside momentum into the London open.
The key intraday levels to watch are: 1.6132, 1.6174, 1.6367 and 1.6442.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.6345 to 1.6452.
Today’s scenarios
1. GBPUSD has traded a 70 pip range during the Tokyo session and added some 90 pips off Friday nights low. After such a strong open with GBPUSD effectively printing one daily range during Tokyo trading further upside maybe limited. Notwithstanding this I am monitoring potential for further upside above 1.6442.
2. Alternatively as the price action is now extended from its averages there potential for an intraday correction. I am monitoring an initial move down to 1.6367.
Macro trade ideas
1. The breach of the 23rd October swing high has changed the trend on a daily swing basis from down to up. This move has also taken out the prior high of the 1st October and multi month trend line resistance. With the price action in the daily time frame also being confirmed on the weekly time frame there is potential for a multi month move higher with an attempt at the 1.7045 level.
2. Alternatively the rising wedge formation if triggered could offer a powerful selling opportunity that takes GBPUSD back down to the 7th July low of 1.4810.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 2nd December 2013
Yesterday’s summary
Friday’s price saw USDCHF trade in a 43 pip range in. The session was volatile session as USDCHD attempted to move lower prior to reversing and closing the day at its highs. The bounce came off support that is being offered by the downward sloping broken trend line with the price action trading within a bullish falling wedge pattern. A breaks up or down from will either validate or fail this pattern formation.
Market open focus
USDCHF is trading within a 20 pip opening range. I am monitoring for signs of increased activity during the London session.
The key intraday levels to watch are 0.9027, 0.9055, 0.9107 and 0.9131.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9000 to 0.9100.
Today’s scenarios
1. USDCHF is trading with a very tight opening range. I am monitoring for potential breaks 0.9055 with a target of 0.9100.
2. Alternatively a failure to break above 0.9055 could see USDCHF potentially trade down to 0.9027 with further targets being 0.9000.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. However the price action has been struggling to extend a move away from the downside sloping trend line. Notwithstanding this as long USDCHF can trade above 0.8889 being the current isolated low then the potential for a substantial upside breakout is possibility.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 34 period moving averages puts into play a move to the 0.8889 isolated low areas.
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 2nd December 2013
Yesterday’s summary
Friday saw USDJPY closed near its open in what was a fairly volatile 50 pip daily range.
The technical reasons behind Friday’s inactivity could be put down to USDJPY stellar rise which has seen the price action become extended from the averages. I will continue to monitor the 101.00 as a support area with the next logical target being the 22nd May swing pivot high of 103.70. However a controlled correction should not be ruled out.
Market open focus
This morning’s trading has been volatile with USDJPY trading within a 36 pip range. The price action is currently trading at the high of its morning range. I will be monitoring the price action for further upside during this morning’s trading.
The key intraday levels to watch are 100.13, 101.35, 102.24 and 102.61.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 101.90 to 102.85.
Today’s scenarios
1. USDJPY has traded in a 36 pip opening range. I am monitoring the price action for breaches of 102.61 with a target of 102.85.
2. Alternatively there is potential break below 102.24 with a target of 101.90.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. The breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 levels now puts in play potential moves 103.73 swing level which is also a major multi year high. The previous 101.52 target having been breached this morning.
2. Alternatively as USDJPY is now becoming extended from its averages there is a possibility that USDJPY corrects down to these averages.