Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 12th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Yesterday EURUSD experienced a corrective rally which saw it trade well within both Thursdays and Fridays ranges.
Intraday view
This morning’s EURUSD has opened with a downside break of the overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action being 1.3317 to 1.3475.
We are currently monitoring the price action for indications that EURUSD can trade and sustain a move either above the high or beneath the low of Friday’s range which was 1.3417 to 1.3437. Breaks of this range will have initial targets the low of the 7th November or upside targets of the 8 period moving averages and prior trend line support.
Trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be views as potential value areas where shorts could be added.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. EURUSD was supported during the down move and with the price action now extended from the averages could be a catalyst for long side position traders to take advantage of the lower prices. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance or intraday swing failures could be potentially viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 12th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Intraday view
This morning GBPUSD has broken down from its overnight range and breached and trading well under trend line support. The possible projected maximum range based upon current price action being 1.5900 to 1.6038. We are currently monitoring a potential move down to the low of the 16th October at 1.5893.
Trade ideas
1. On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013. If GBPUSD does continue to trade lower market participants looking for value on the long side of the market would potentially be looking at the double bottom area of 1.5893 with intraday swing failures of lower highs possibly offering opportunities to nibble on the long side.
2. However as GBPUSD continues to breach multiple trend lines and with the price action now trading deep into Fibonacci support it would appear that the route of least resistance is to the down side with the initial target being the 1.5893 swing low.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up that GBPUSD is extended from its averages could offer opportunities to take long positions. However as the current market sentiment is fairly negative one would best look for areas where this down move stalls on an intraday basis so that long positions could possibly be entered.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD has broken trend line support areas there is potential for a move that takes the price action back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 12th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Friday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move. Intraday corrections and swing high failures could potentially offer the entry opportunities to test the long side.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction. Intraday swing low failures could possibly offer entry opportunities to the short side.
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Scenario 1
As there has been an upside break of the overnight range there is potential for a continuation of this move with the price action aiming for the target of last Thursday’s high.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the current intraday up trend could reverse following a failure to hold above a prior swing low.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 12th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -
Comments
Intraday
This morning session has exploded to the upside USDJPY touching the upper level of the converging triangle. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 99.09 to 99.80. As USDJPY is now trading at the extreme of its daily average range it would be interesting to see if the price action has enough energy left today to breach and sustain a move above the upper level of the converging triangle. A failure of an upside resistance break will open up the possibility of USDJPY trading a full average days range to the downside.
Trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. This morning strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as a daily average range has already been traded the conservative plays are to either wait for a pullback possibly to the 8 period moving averages before deciding to participate on the long side or allow for a break of the converging triangle top and trade the pullback by using a choice of one’s preferred entry techniques.
2. However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside. Now that the price action is trading at trend line resistance shorting opportunities may arise.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support such as the 8 period moving averages could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support with a swing low failure being the tipping point.