MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.07.2015
Last night the deadline for a EUR1.6 billion payment came and went with no payment made by the Greek Government.
With further deadlines of larger payments to the ECB on the horizon in the middle of July the door is ajar and a Grexit is becoming a strong possibility.
So with so much at stake Greeks last night took to the streets of Athens and demonstrated outside the Greek Parliament at Sygntama Square.
However it was not the pro Government supporters who turned up but supports of the “YES” campaign.
There are now genuine fears that a “NO” vote would send Greece down the road to bankruptcy and international financial isolation.
This process has already started. As Greeks line up to withdraw their EUR 60 daily limit from fast emptying cash machines the news that the European Central Bank has effectively cut the Greek Banking system adrift will only heighten the sense of anxiety among the general public.
There are hopes that between now and Sunday a rabbit is pulled out of the hat and an agreement is found but the Europeans are now in no mood to compromise and the Greek Prime Minister has left himself with no room to manoeuvre.
So we are now heading into Sunday and the biggest decision the history of the European project and the recent history of Greece.
If the “NO” vote is victorious the Greek people will have to endure some harsher times before there is any economic recovery.
A “YES” vote will be also be a hollow and bitter victory as Greeks have to complete years of continued austerity.
A “YES” vote would also mean that the Tsipras experiment like most things that burn very bright is soon to be extinguished as the Greek Prime Minister will have little choice but take the decent decision and resign his post.
In reality neither decision to vote “YES” or “NO” solves the countries or even Europe’s problems. If Greece had viable industries and export markets I would go with my heart and urge that the Greek people vote “NO”.
However Greece is no Russia of the late 1990’s. Set adrift from Europe I worry on the social impact that a “NO” vote will have. With huge youth unemployment a no vote will only act as a spur for an acceleration of emigration of the countries young and brightest to the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Canada and USA.
My head says vote “YES” and renegotiate within the European club so as to make the Greek debt viable in the longer term.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1274
Target 2: 1.1018
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128
Daily control level: 1.1275
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5822
Target 2: 1.5602
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.31
Target 2: 121.67
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.82
Daily control level: 124.00
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9458
Target 2: 0.9242
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108
Daily control level: 0.9430
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2584
Target 2: 1.2396
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094
Daily control level: 1.2350
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7788
Target 2: 0.7618
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085
Daily control level: 0.7660
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1184.58
Target 2: 1160.36
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.11
Daily control level: 1187.90
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 60.41
Target 2: 57.54
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44
Daily control level: 59.70
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