MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.06.2015
After what seems an eternity of talking and bickering between the Greek Government and its creditors it looks like we will finally have a deal that saves Greece from the clutches of a debt default and the inevitable fallout out of the Euro area.
A deal is expected to be agreed upon within the coming days. However the prospect of getting the legislation passed through the parliaments of member states of the Eurozone could turn out to be a tricky undertaking.
It is not certain that all the individual governments can persuade their parliaments to back the legislation. Although it seems likely that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel will impose herself enough on her colleagues to ensure that the legislation is passed in the German Bundestag we may have surprises from belligerent northern European deputies who could decide that this deal is bad for Europe. The notable country that will keep markets on edge is Finland. This Finish Government has been a vocal critic of the Greek Government and has taken a harder the line than most of its European partners.
The other concern is of course what will happen in the Greek parliament. Although the Greek Government holds a large majority in the national legislature it is far from certain that the SYRIZA administration will receive unanimous backing from its rank and file elements. There is the prospect of the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras having to request support from the opposition parties of the Greek establishment.
So with a deal likely on the cards the question is will approval be received in time for the payment of EUR 1.7 billion be made to the IMF? Probably not but this is a non-issue if it is certain that no barriers be it legislative or legal are put in the way of sealing this deal.
This leads us to the deal in question. It would appear that the Greek Government has offered enough concessions to its European partners to have a deal approved. That the Greek Government has given some ground on pensions by abolishing early retirement is a good move.
However of what benefit is it to penalize the wealthy and businesses that have annual net incomes of greater than EUR 500,000. These are the very persons and organizations that Greece needs to keep on side if the country is to move forward and out of this dreaded recession / depression.
The success stories of the Greek economy have an aversion to paying tax because they see a Greek Government that spends the funds at its disposal in a liberal manner on a bloated and inefficient public sector. Effectively for years the Greek Government has implemented a progressive tax policy where it taxes the rich and gives to those privileged enough to work for the Greek state.
The news that the SYRIZA administration will now target the rich will be greeted by cheers and laughter in the private banks, wealth management companies and accountancy practices in London, Luxembourg and Geneva. For sure accountants will be booking their flights to Athens and Mykonos over the coming days.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.1307
Target 2: 1.1027
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0140
Daily control level: 1.1410
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.5860
Target 2: 1.5598
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131
Daily control level:1.5905
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 124.96
Target 2: 122.90
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03
Daily control level: 122.45
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.9448
Target 2: 0.9222
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113
Daily control level: 0.9150
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.2421
Target 2: 1.2227
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097
Daily control level: 1.2200
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.7828
Target 2: 0.7642
Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093
Daily control level: 0.7795
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1191.01
Target 2: 1165.49
Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76
Daily control level: 1205.85
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 62.70
Target 2: 59.64
Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53
Daily control level: 59
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