MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.06.2015
Without doubt today’s Eurogroup meeting and European Summit will be dominated by one major point of discussion. The Greek debt crisis.
The talks have now entered a critical period due to the time constraints that dictate that a solution must be found in the coming days.
With the Greek Government obliged to make a payment to the IMF of EUR 1.6 billion by June 30 and with the current debt programme ending on the same day, the need to find a solution that satisfies all the parties has taken on a critical importance.
The Greek Government has to offer enough compromises to its creditors so that it can receive the last tranche of EUR 7.2 billion from the European Union. Without these funds it is doubtful the Greek Government will have the means to avert a default to the IMF.
If the Greek Government was to default on its debt obligation to the IMF on June 30 it can be assumed that the European Central Bank boss, Mr. Mario Draghi would pull the plug on Greek banks which are presently suffering the effects on a run as frightened depositors pull their funds.
The ECB has injected large amounts of capital into Greek banks through its ELA mechanism. Without the emergency liquidity it would only be a matter of days for a full scale banking collapse grips this crucial sector of the economy.
The Greek Government having taken on the seriousness of its current financial predicament delivered a new plan to its creditors. No firm details have emerged of the latest Greek plan. From a positive aspect Mr. Martin Selmayr of the European Commission said it is a “good basis for progress”.
However the Greek Government will have to make large compromises on pensions and the public sector for any deal to be agreed. It is unclear how far the SYRIZA Government will sacrifice the wishes of its rank and file party members and voters to push through a deal.
The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will try to limit the fall out of a massive U-turn by pinning his hopes on a review and restructuring of the Greek debt once the current crisis has been averted.
EURUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.1520
Target 2: 1.1230
Projected range: 0.0144 ATR
Daily control level: 1.1290
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 1.6005
Target 2: 1.5740
Projected range: 0.0131 ATR
Daily control level: 1.5800
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 123.95
Target 2: 121.90
Projected range: 1.03 ATR
Daily control level: 123.50
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 0.9275
Target 2: 0.9060
Projected range: 0.0110 ATR
Daily control level: 0.9230
USDCAD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1.2360
Target 2: 1.2165
Projected range: 0098 ATR
Daily control level: 1.2300
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Up
Target 1: 0.7860
Target 2: 0.7670
Projected range: 0.0096
Daily control level: 0.7750
GOLD
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 1212.60
Target 2: 1187.20
Projected range: 12.69
Daily control level: 1205.85
OIL
The intraday technical outlook
Trend 1 hour: Down
Target 1: 61.04
Target 2: 57.80
Projected range: 1.62 ATR
Daily control level: 61.50
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