Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (09:30 GMT)

Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (09:30 GMT)

Postby WindsorBrokers » Thu May 12, 2016 5:35 am

Reversal signal was generated on daily chart, following yesterday’s rally that left long bullish daily candle and peaked at 1.1445. Rally confirmed strong support at 1.1367 zone (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1213/1.1614 rally), which contained pullback off 1.1614 peak, for now.
Easing from 1.1445 is so far seen as corrective and should ideally stay above 1.1400 zone (psychological support / daily 30SMA), to keep fresh near-term bulls in play, for renewed attempts higher. Lift above initial barrier at 1.1445 will open next strong resistances at 1.1486 (50% retracement of 1.1614/1.1357 pullback, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line) and 1.1515 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1614/1.1357 / weekly Ichimoku cloud top), break of which will confirm reversal.
Conversely, daily close below 1.1367 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1213/1.1614 rally), will bring bears back to play and expose 1.1308 support (Fibo 76.4% retracement).

Res: 1.1427; 1.1445; 1.1486; 1.1515
Sup: 1.1396; 1.1378; 1.1357; 1.1308


Cable left long-legged Doji candle yesterday, signaling hesitation to break above near-term congestion, despite posting fresh marginally higher high at 1.4486 on nearly 100-pips amplitude of yesterday’s trading.
Subsequent pullback that confirmed extended near-term directionless mode, keeps downside vulnerable and risk of possible renewed attack at key supports at 1.4373 (09 May correction low, reinforced by daily 30SMA) and 1.4320 (broken daily inverse H&S pattern neckline).
Daily technicals are mixed and see no clear direction while the price holds within 1.4373/1.4486 range.
Focus is on today’s BOE data, which are expected to influence pair’s near-term action. More dovish tone from BOE could put Cable under increased pressure, as loss of key 1.4373/20 supports, would open way towards key short-term support at 1.4004 (06 Apr low).
Alternative scenario requires clear break above 1.4486/91 barriers (congestion top / daily 10SMA), to signal recovery resumption towards 1.4524/70 (Fibo 38.2% / 50% of 1.4768/1.4373 downleg, respectively).

Res: 1.4453; 1.4486; 1.4524; 1.4570
Sup: 1.4393; 1.4373; 1.4320; 1.4296


The pair entered near-term congestion between 108.20 and 109.35, following repeated upside rejection at 108.35 hurdle (10/11 May highs). However, yesterday’s 100-pips fall, which left long red daily candle, so far did impact near-term bulls. Renewed attempts higher pressure initial barrier at 109.00 and show scope for fresh attack at 109.35 pivot (which lies just ahead of Fibo 61.8% of 111.87/105.53 downleg). Break here will expose psychological 110.00 barrier and 110.37 (Fibo 76.4%), in extension.
Conversely, weakness below congestion bottom at 108.20, will risk extension to 107.45 (daily tankan-sen) and signal lower top formation.
Setup of daily technicals is mixed and requires break out of near-term congestion, to signal fresh direction.

Res: 109.35; 110.00; 110.37; 110.88
Sup: 108.50; 108.20; 107.90; 107.60


The pair returned to the lower side of near-term consolidation range and retested daily Ichimoku cloud base at 0.7320, which so far contained downleg from 0.7833 peak, following stall of recovery rally extension at 0.7400 yesterday. This signals extended consolidation as likely scenario, with risk remaining at the downside, on weak near-term technicals.
Daily chart studies maintain strong bearish tone (bearish setup of 10;20;30 SMA’s and indicators deeply in the negative territory). Reversal of daily Slow Stochastic from oversold zone, so far did show stronger impact on bears, keeping upside attempts limited for now.
Yesterday’s high at 0.7400 marks initial resistance, followed by 0.7424 (Fibo 23.6% of 0.7833/0.7298 downleg) and 0.7441 (falling daily 10SMA), which mark initial pivots.
However, regain of minimum 0.7500 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7833/0.7298 downleg), is needed to signal stronger upside action.
Key supports lay at 0.7320/0.7298, loss of which could trigger bearish acceleration towards0.7259 (200SMA) and 0.7211 (Fibo 61.8% of broader 0.6826/0.7833 ascend).

Res: 0.7377; 0.7400; 0.7441; 0.7500
Sup: 0.7320; 0.7298; 0.7259; 0.7211
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