Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (10:00 GMT)
Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:31 amEURUSD
The Euro extends two-day recovery from 1.0787, hourly higher base, formed on downside rejection towards pivotal 1.0776 support, 21 Jan low. Recovery rally penetrated into daily Ichimoku cloud, on probe above cloud base at 1.0859. Rally was so far capped by 30SMA at 1.0880, keeping intact psychological 1.0900 barrier.
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, while daily indicators hold in neutral territory and MA’s show mixed setup and daily Bollinger bands are contracting
Downside remains in focus in the near-term, however, return to 1.0787/76 pivots, is needed to confirm bearish resumption and expose key short-term support at 1.0709, 04/05 Jan lows and the lower boundary of short-term range, entrenched between 1.0709 and 1.0990.
Conversely, break above 1.09 barrier would sideline downside risk, but sustained break above 1.0925, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1058/1.0709 descend, is needed to confirm bullish resumption and expose daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.1006.
Res: 1.0883; 1.0925; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0848; 1.0817; 1.0787; 1.0776
GBPUSD
Cable is trading in extended corrective fourth wave off 1.4078 low, which peaked at 1.4365, on yesterday’s acceleration higher. Recovery so far holds below pivotal 1.4408/35 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4943/1.4078 downleg / falling daily 20SMA, which are expected to ideally cap recovery.
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, while overall picture remains firmly bearish.
Daily RSI is turning lower, momentum studies are negative and slow Stochastic is attempting to turn lower at overbought zone’s border.
Broken daily 10SMA and Tenkan-sen line at 1.4263/51 zone, now offer strong support and break below here is needed to confirm reversal and turn focus towards 1.4078, 21 Jan low.
Res: 1.4365; 1.4408; 1.4435; 1.4510
Sup: 1.4290; 1.4250; 1.4171; 1.4145
USDCAD
The pair consolidates above 1.4100 handle, after posting fresh low at 1.4042, on yesterday’s bearish acceleration.
Reversal of oil prices, stopped yesterday’s strong fall, but latest oil dip, did not show stronger impact on USDCAD’s near-term price action.
However, yesterday’s close in long red candle that formed bearish outside day, gives negative signal, as the pair closed below important supports: daily 20SMA at 1.4213 and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3808/1.4688 at 1.4144.
Setup of daily MA’s is mixed, indicators are bearishly aligned, but slow Stochastic is oversold and is attempting to turn higher.
This suggests further consolidation, with negative sentiment in play, while initial barrier, daily 20SMA caps. Break here would ease immediate downside risk and expose current congestion top and upside pivot at 1.4323, reinforced by reversed daily 10SMA, currently at 1.4343.
On the downside, yesterday’s low and congestion base at 1.4042, marks initial support, followed by psychological 1.40 and more significant 1.3978, Fibonacci 38.2% of Oct-Jan 1.2829/1.4688 rally, loss of which will confirm bears.
Primary trend remains firmly bullish, but overbought conditions on larger timeframes, suggest deeper correction.
Res: 1.4154; 1.4195; 1.4212; 1.4289
Sup: 1.4259; 1.4207; 1.4160; 1.4112
AUDUSD
The pair rides on the fourth, corrective wave, which commenced from 0.6826 and is part of five-wave descend from 0.7383, 04 Dec 2015 high.
Fresh acceleration higher, probes above daily 20SMA at 0.7019 and approaches ideal reversal point at 0.7055 zone, where the fourth wave should end, according to wave principles.
Barrier is reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, which lies at 0.7075 and also marks the mid-point of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Daily slow Stochastic is approaching overbought territory, which may support reversal theory.
Otherwise, extended fourth wave will look for next barrier at 0.7085, descending daily 30SMA and next pivot at 0.7134, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Broken daily 20SMA offers initial support at 0.7020, followed by session low at 0.6990 and daily 10SMA at 0.6952.
Res: 0.7055; 0.7075; 0.7100; 0.7134
Sup: 0.7020; 0.6990; 0.6952; 0.6917
The Euro extends two-day recovery from 1.0787, hourly higher base, formed on downside rejection towards pivotal 1.0776 support, 21 Jan low. Recovery rally penetrated into daily Ichimoku cloud, on probe above cloud base at 1.0859. Rally was so far capped by 30SMA at 1.0880, keeping intact psychological 1.0900 barrier.
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, while daily indicators hold in neutral territory and MA’s show mixed setup and daily Bollinger bands are contracting
Downside remains in focus in the near-term, however, return to 1.0787/76 pivots, is needed to confirm bearish resumption and expose key short-term support at 1.0709, 04/05 Jan lows and the lower boundary of short-term range, entrenched between 1.0709 and 1.0990.
Conversely, break above 1.09 barrier would sideline downside risk, but sustained break above 1.0925, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1058/1.0709 descend, is needed to confirm bullish resumption and expose daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.1006.
Res: 1.0883; 1.0925; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0848; 1.0817; 1.0787; 1.0776
GBPUSD
Cable is trading in extended corrective fourth wave off 1.4078 low, which peaked at 1.4365, on yesterday’s acceleration higher. Recovery so far holds below pivotal 1.4408/35 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4943/1.4078 downleg / falling daily 20SMA, which are expected to ideally cap recovery.
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, while overall picture remains firmly bearish.
Daily RSI is turning lower, momentum studies are negative and slow Stochastic is attempting to turn lower at overbought zone’s border.
Broken daily 10SMA and Tenkan-sen line at 1.4263/51 zone, now offer strong support and break below here is needed to confirm reversal and turn focus towards 1.4078, 21 Jan low.
Res: 1.4365; 1.4408; 1.4435; 1.4510
Sup: 1.4290; 1.4250; 1.4171; 1.4145
USDCAD
The pair consolidates above 1.4100 handle, after posting fresh low at 1.4042, on yesterday’s bearish acceleration.
Reversal of oil prices, stopped yesterday’s strong fall, but latest oil dip, did not show stronger impact on USDCAD’s near-term price action.
However, yesterday’s close in long red candle that formed bearish outside day, gives negative signal, as the pair closed below important supports: daily 20SMA at 1.4213 and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3808/1.4688 at 1.4144.
Setup of daily MA’s is mixed, indicators are bearishly aligned, but slow Stochastic is oversold and is attempting to turn higher.
This suggests further consolidation, with negative sentiment in play, while initial barrier, daily 20SMA caps. Break here would ease immediate downside risk and expose current congestion top and upside pivot at 1.4323, reinforced by reversed daily 10SMA, currently at 1.4343.
On the downside, yesterday’s low and congestion base at 1.4042, marks initial support, followed by psychological 1.40 and more significant 1.3978, Fibonacci 38.2% of Oct-Jan 1.2829/1.4688 rally, loss of which will confirm bears.
Primary trend remains firmly bullish, but overbought conditions on larger timeframes, suggest deeper correction.
Res: 1.4154; 1.4195; 1.4212; 1.4289
Sup: 1.4259; 1.4207; 1.4160; 1.4112
AUDUSD
The pair rides on the fourth, corrective wave, which commenced from 0.6826 and is part of five-wave descend from 0.7383, 04 Dec 2015 high.
Fresh acceleration higher, probes above daily 20SMA at 0.7019 and approaches ideal reversal point at 0.7055 zone, where the fourth wave should end, according to wave principles.
Barrier is reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, which lies at 0.7075 and also marks the mid-point of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Daily slow Stochastic is approaching overbought territory, which may support reversal theory.
Otherwise, extended fourth wave will look for next barrier at 0.7085, descending daily 30SMA and next pivot at 0.7134, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Broken daily 20SMA offers initial support at 0.7020, followed by session low at 0.6990 and daily 10SMA at 0.6952.
Res: 0.7055; 0.7075; 0.7100; 0.7134
Sup: 0.7020; 0.6990; 0.6952; 0.6917