Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC Nov 24 2012
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 3:08 amDaily Forex Analysis from FXCC Nov 24 2012
Greek deal hopes and China's improving growth momentum lift market mood
Risky assets advanced this week as economic indicators showed improving growth momentum in China and the US, while the economic recession did not intensify in the eurozone. Optimism about an imminent agreement on a debt-reduction package for Greece also contributed to improve market sentiment. Spain took advantage of more positive market mood and it managed to sell EUR8.8bn in government bonds and Treasury bills, helping sentiment toward risk assets. In this context, negative impact of the French credit rating downgrading was quite mute. Peripheral risk premia narrowed notably across the board this week. Notwithstanding the safe-haven yields rose, the reaction in the short-end of the German yield curve was quite limited. At the end of the week, oil prices fell due to ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas, reducing one of the global market headwinds. Finally, Japanese yen is being dragged by expectation of Japanese Liberal Democratic Party expectation to win elections on December 16, which backs an ease monetary policy
Today's market headlines will be almost entirely dominated by the EU FinMin meeting, with reports over the weekend suggesting a Greece debt deal is still up in the air. On Saturday, finance ministers held a teleconference, which failed to clear up the picture in this regard. The Greek-based paper Kathimerini, citing sources familiar with the talks, suggests an agreement may not be inked until December 3, while portals like Reuters sound more optimistic.-FXstreet.com
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-26 **:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. EcoFin Meeting
2012-11-26 07:00 GMT | Germany. Retail Sales
2012-11-26 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Trade Balance
FOREX NEWS :
2012-11-26 05:31 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.30 or 1.2920 first? EU FinMin to shake up price
2012-11-26 05:26 GMT | AUD/USD above 1.05 if Greece gets the money - Westpac
2012-11-26 05:02 GMT | GBP/USD limited below 1.6050
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29774 LOW 1.29453 BID 1.29453 ASK 1.29459 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08:30:18
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Next barrier for uptrend formation locates at Friday’s high- 1.2991 (R1), above here opens the way for a move towards to our targets at 1.3010 (R2) and 1.3029 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the market successfully retest our support level at 1.2946 (S1), we expect further consolidation development with possible targets at 1.2928 (S2) and 1.2909 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2991, 1.3010, 1.3029
Support Levels: 1.2946, 1.2928, 1.2909
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60379 LOW 1.60159 BID 1.60169 ASK 1.60173 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08:30:19
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Resuming of the uptrend is possible above the next resistance level at 1.6051 (R1). Clearance of this level might expose next targets at 1.6067 (R2) and 1.6081 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market deviates from the uptrend formation and currently trades on the session low. Further market decline is limited to next support level at 1.6010 (S1), with only clear break here would be a signal of market weakening with next targets at 1.5996 (S2) and 1.5981 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6051, 1.6067, 1.6081
Support Levels: 1.6010, 1.5996, 1.5981
--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 82.622 LOW 82.066 BID 82.083 ASK 82.087 CHANGE -0.35% TIME 08:30:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Our bullish expectations remain intact, above the next resistance level at 82.61 (R1). Break here would suggest next targets at 82.79 (R2) and 82.98 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Bearish penetration below the support at 82.15 (S1) might determine negative sentiment for the remaining of the day with possible targets in focus at 81.96 (S2) and 81.77 (S3) intraday.
Resistance Levels: 82.61, 82.79, 82.98
Support Levels: 82.15, 81.96, 81.77
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Charts | Forex Exchange | ECN Forex Online | FXCC )
Greek deal hopes and China's improving growth momentum lift market mood
Risky assets advanced this week as economic indicators showed improving growth momentum in China and the US, while the economic recession did not intensify in the eurozone. Optimism about an imminent agreement on a debt-reduction package for Greece also contributed to improve market sentiment. Spain took advantage of more positive market mood and it managed to sell EUR8.8bn in government bonds and Treasury bills, helping sentiment toward risk assets. In this context, negative impact of the French credit rating downgrading was quite mute. Peripheral risk premia narrowed notably across the board this week. Notwithstanding the safe-haven yields rose, the reaction in the short-end of the German yield curve was quite limited. At the end of the week, oil prices fell due to ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas, reducing one of the global market headwinds. Finally, Japanese yen is being dragged by expectation of Japanese Liberal Democratic Party expectation to win elections on December 16, which backs an ease monetary policy
Today's market headlines will be almost entirely dominated by the EU FinMin meeting, with reports over the weekend suggesting a Greece debt deal is still up in the air. On Saturday, finance ministers held a teleconference, which failed to clear up the picture in this regard. The Greek-based paper Kathimerini, citing sources familiar with the talks, suggests an agreement may not be inked until December 3, while portals like Reuters sound more optimistic.-FXstreet.com
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26112012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-11-26 **:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. EcoFin Meeting
2012-11-26 07:00 GMT | Germany. Retail Sales
2012-11-26 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Trade Balance
FOREX NEWS :
2012-11-26 05:31 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.30 or 1.2920 first? EU FinMin to shake up price
2012-11-26 05:26 GMT | AUD/USD above 1.05 if Greece gets the money - Westpac
2012-11-26 05:02 GMT | GBP/USD limited below 1.6050
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29774 LOW 1.29453 BID 1.29453 ASK 1.29459 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08:30:18
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Next barrier for uptrend formation locates at Friday’s high- 1.2991 (R1), above here opens the way for a move towards to our targets at 1.3010 (R2) and 1.3029 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the market successfully retest our support level at 1.2946 (S1), we expect further consolidation development with possible targets at 1.2928 (S2) and 1.2909 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2991, 1.3010, 1.3029
Support Levels: 1.2946, 1.2928, 1.2909
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60379 LOW 1.60159 BID 1.60169 ASK 1.60173 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08:30:19
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Resuming of the uptrend is possible above the next resistance level at 1.6051 (R1). Clearance of this level might expose next targets at 1.6067 (R2) and 1.6081 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market deviates from the uptrend formation and currently trades on the session low. Further market decline is limited to next support level at 1.6010 (S1), with only clear break here would be a signal of market weakening with next targets at 1.5996 (S2) and 1.5981 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6051, 1.6067, 1.6081
Support Levels: 1.6010, 1.5996, 1.5981
--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 82.622 LOW 82.066 BID 82.083 ASK 82.087 CHANGE -0.35% TIME 08:30:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Our bullish expectations remain intact, above the next resistance level at 82.61 (R1). Break here would suggest next targets at 82.79 (R2) and 82.98 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Bearish penetration below the support at 82.15 (S1) might determine negative sentiment for the remaining of the day with possible targets in focus at 81.96 (S2) and 81.77 (S3) intraday.
Resistance Levels: 82.61, 82.79, 82.98
Support Levels: 82.15, 81.96, 81.77
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Charts | Forex Exchange | ECN Forex Online | FXCC )