HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd June 2023.

Market Update – June 23 – Risk Aversion Extends.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

After 50 bp rate hikes from the BoE and Norges Bank, ongoing hawkish comments from Chair Powell who further warned of additional rate hikes, one maybe two more this year, exacerbated the selling.

Asian stock markets have remained under pressure and European as well as US futures are firmly in negative territory at the end of what is shaping up to be the worst week for stocks since March. The advent of supply with $120 bln in Treasury auctions announced, along with a 5-pronged offering from Nasdaq, extended the losses. Fighting inflation is taking precedence over growth concerns and for bank stocks in particular that could spell further pain, as markets worry about the risk of deteriorating loan portfolios. The 10-year Treasury yield has corrected -0.9 bp today, the German 10-year is down -2.2 bp and curves are inverting further. UK retail sales rose 0.3% m/m in May with the numbers suggest that demand is holding up despite ongoing inflation overshoots that are eating into real disposable income.



*FX – The USDIndex is on the rise and currently at 102.68. EUR broke below 1.0900 printing a low at 1.0852, while Pound retests again the 1.2690 lows. USDJPY reverted to 142.84 from 143.48 highs as risk aversion deepens.
*Stocks – China bourses were still on holiday, but the Hang Seng declined -1.8%, the Nikkei lost -1.5%, after a mixed close on Wall Street yesterday. The US100 sank 0.45%, US500 was down about 0.5%, while the US30 fell 0.37%.
*Commodities – Gold touched lows of $1910.05. The USOil meanwhile has dropped to $68.51 per barrel.

Today – PMI from Germany, Eurozone, UK and US will be monitored for growth signals.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL(-1%) resume decline today after -4% yesterday. Currently at $68.51, with fast MAs flattened for now, RSI at 28 and flat, Stochastic higher while MACD & signal line remain negatively configured.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 26th June 2023.

Market Update – June 26 – Risk off!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets are consolidating after last week’s decline. Asia bourses still posted small losses, but European futures and US futures are slightly higher. Mainland China bourses sold off in catch up trade on their first trading day since last .The 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 3.721% and markets continue to fine tune central bank expectations. The ECB’s annual conference on central banking, which starts today may help as top central bankers are set to speak. Events in Russia are also on the radar at the start of the week. Oil prices rose on supply concerns and stock markets were mixed after Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin withdrew from positions in Russia.



*FX – The USDIndex has corrected to 102.32, EUR steady at 1.09, Pound sideways at 1.2720 and USDJPY corrcted below 143.87 at 143.48.
*Stocks –Defence stocks down. The US100 tumbled -1.01%, while the US500 was down -0.77%, with the US30 off -0.65%. It looks as though a lot of the AI rally has lost its umph. For the US100 and US500 it was the worst week since the SVB collapse with the US100 falling -2.1%, and the US500 dropping -1.75%, with the US30 off -1.98%.
*Commodities – USOil rose slightly on supply concerns and currently settled at 69.65, with a relatively muted reaction over weekend’s events in Russia. Gold slightly lower but steady at $1922.13.
*BTCUSD – Supported above $29,940 after breached $31,000. – SEC Approves First Ever Leveraged Bitcoin Futures ETF.

Today – ECB annual conference, Germany’s Ifo issues while Germany’s Federal Court of Justice decides compensation claims against Volkswagen, Audi and Mercedes-Benz in Karlsruhe over the diesel scandal.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) COFFEE (-3.07%) dipped on the 163.60, by global economic gloom sparked by Friday’s weak US and Eurozone purchasing managers reports. Fast MAs aligned lower, RSI at 26, MACD & signal line are negatively configured ATR (H1) is at 1.36 and ATR (D) is at 5.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 27th June 2023.

Market Update – June 27 – Stocks buoyed after yesterday’s drift.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk appetite started to improve and a 2% bounce in the Hang Seng led Asian markets higher overnight. China Premier warned that economic barriers will lead to confrontation, while he promised the roll out of more effective measures to boost demand. China meanwhile set its daily reference rate for the managed currency at a higher level which for a second day helped the offshore yuan to advance. European and US futures are also finding buyers, after the US100 suffered again yesterday with markets preparing for a Fed hike in July. The 2-year finished fractionally lower at 4.680% after a well bid auction. It was as rich as 4.635% earlier. The 10-year was off 1.5 bps at 3.719%. The curve was at -102 bps.

Along with concerns over events in Russia, a plunge in German Ifo business confidence added to angst over the bearish impacts of central bank tightening, while more signs of a flagging Chinese economy added to risk-off flows.



*FX – The USDIndex to 102.14, EUR at 1.0935, Pound retests at 1.274. USDJPY at 143.45, which will keep intervention talk alive, especially after Japan extended the term of its top currency official for another year, which will be taken as a sign that officials remain determined to stem the weakness of the currency.
*Stocks – Nikkei underperformed but China bourses were buoyed. Wall Street settled in the red with the US100 and US500 at the day’s lows. The US100 tumbled -1.16% and the US500 was off -0.45%. The US30 was down -0.04%.
*Commodities – USOil higher due to Russian turmoil and currently at $70 per barrel.
Gold slightly higher as markets lower but steady at $1922.13. Iron and Copper jump as China stimulus optimism.

Today – The ECB’s conference on central banking in Sintra really gets underway today and comments from Lagarde will be watched carefully.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.68%) dipped to 1.6256. Fast MAs aligned rebounded in the last hour indicating the potential end of the decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 28th June 2023.

Market Update – June 28 – “Summer Sequel”.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

European stock markets are higher in early trade, after a largely stronger session in Asia. Overnight, Treasury yields climbed and Wall Street bounced, supported by strong data, i.e.

*US new home sales soared 12.2% to heady 763k pace in May
*US consumer confidence spiked to 109.7 in June; 1-year inflation 6.0%
*US durable goods orders jumped 1.7% in May, 0.6% ex-transportation

Japan extended the term of its top currency official for another year, which was taken as a sign that officials remain determined to stem the weakness of the currency, although for now markets are testing that resolve. Canada CPI slowed to 3.4% y/y in May, Median core rate at 3.9% y/y. Australia CPI cooled at 5.6% in May, a faster rate than expected, raising the prospect of a pause in interest rate rises from the Reserve Bank of Australia. ECB officials continue to flag that they have more ground to cover on rates, despite the deterioration in confidence indicators.



Today, German GfK consumer confidence deteriorated. The domestic political discussions may be partly to blame for the gloomy picture, but high inflation and the ongoing Ukraine war are likely also weighing on confidence and depressing the outlook. Latest revisions showed Germany in recession over the winter and GDP is expected to contract in 2023, especially as rising rates will also start to have an effect on activity.

*FX – The USDIndex recovered yesterday’s losses and returned to 102.29, but remains firmer versus JPY and Turkish lira. USDJPY has cleared the 144 mark, today slightly below it though. EUR at 1.0939, Pound down to 1.2719. AUD and NZD under pressure after soft inflation data dampened rate hike expectations.
*Stocks – Nikkei rallied 2%, the ASX was 1.1% higher at the close, while China bourses underperformed as markets still miss convincing stimulus measures. GER40 and UK100 are up 0.4% and 0.3% in early trade, but US futures are slightly lower today. #Walgreens tumbled more than 9% to an almost 13-year-low after cutting its full-year profit outlook and warning that consumers were paring spending as inflation remains elevated. #Regeneron slipped 8.7% after the Food and Drug Administration rejected the biotechnology firm’s application for approval of a high-dose version of its eye disease treatment Eylea. #United Airlines and #American Airlines rallied more than 5% after rival Delta gave a rosy outlook for the year on sustained travel demand. #Delta shares rose 6.8%. #NVDA -3.1%, #AMD -2.4% after hours as US ban on exporting AI chips to China imminent.
*Commodities – USOil dropped back again as Russia jitters eased, to $67.70.
*Gold down to $1909.

Today – The ECB’s conference on central banking in Sintra the highlight of the day.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.03%) dipped to 0.6095 (S3). Fast MAs aligned lower, MACD lines are negatively configured with RSI at 24.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 30th June 2023.

Market Update – June 30 – Eyes on PCE.


US ECONOMY

The surprisingly strong GDP revisions and the drop in jobless claims raised fears the FOMC will have to tighten rates further and boosted Treasury yields higher. The bear flattening trade boosted rates to the highest levels since March, the last time the markets fretted over aggressive Fed action. Fed funds futures priced in another hike in the coming months. Asian markets traded mixed, European and US futures are mostly higher as markets wait for the US PCE numbers after yesterday’s strong round of data that lifted Treasury yields.



*FX – The USDIndex popped to 103.437 on the more hawkish Fed outlook, but faded to 103.32. USDJPY breached 145. GBP and EUR remained under pressure.
*Stocks – The US30 and US500 are up 0.80% and 0.45%, respectively, supported by financials after the banks passed their stress tests. The US100 was unchanged.
*Commodities – USOil keeps retesting $70. US and European central banks remain hawkish and signal a higher-for-longer stance. China hasn’t delivered the hoped for aggressive stimulus program, but for Russia jitters have eased and a drop in US crude inventories helped to underpin prices today. EIA data showed that US crude inventories dropped by 9.6 million barrels last week – the largest drawdown in more than a month.
*Gold – broke below $1900 level yesterday but quickly returned higher to $1906.

Today – German Unemployment change, EU preliminary inflation & core reading, US PCE index and Michigan index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BCHUSD (+19%) rallied to 322.93 high. Fast MAs flattened, MACD lines are still positively configured with RSI at 80.85 and Stochastic at 57 and falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 3rd July 2023.

Market Update – July 3 – A shortened week to start H2.



Core PCE data slightly below expectations plus a GDP reading that surprised at +2% (remember, however, that the comparison is against 2022 Q1 which was -1.6%) in the US were enough to give a final boost to US Indices – and of course their global peers – to close H1. The Nasdaq had its best H1 since 1983, up 38.71% ytd, +15.16% in Q2. $5 trillion has been added to the value of the listed companies, and Apple alone hit $3 trillion in valuation. The SP500 rose 6.47% in June, 8.30% in Q2, 15.91% ytd. The Dow Jones jumped 4.56% in June and is up only 3.80% on the year. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and the potential of generative AI have contributed to the market’s gain so far in 2023. Going back to last Friday, the Treasuries did not behave so brilliantly and were mostly sold off with the 2-year currently at 4.90% and with the curve against the 10-year at -107 bps. The USD also suffered against the major currencies, losing about 0.5%. The week started very well in Asia thanks to good PMI data from Caixin in China and Tankan in Japan.

This will be a shortened week for American trading: today Canada will observe Canada Day and the US will close early ahead of Independence Day tomorrow.



*FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.66 after having retreated 65 cents from the highs on Friday. EUR briefly regained 1.09 and GBP 1.27, now they are both slightly shy of these levels. AUD is weak in line with other majors (-0.20%) on the eve of the RBA IR decision tonight. Asian currencies are still weak, with CNH close to 8-month lows (7.263) and JPY still on the 144 handle.
*Stocks – US Futures are mainly flat (-0.01% US30/+0.16% US100); Asia is rallying this morning: China +1.93%, HK +1.91%, Nikkei +1.50%. Goldman Sachs is in talks to offload its APPLE credit card and high-yield savings account products to AMERICAN EXPRESS. Tesla reported 466.140 deliveries for Q2, +83% y/y
*Commodities – USOil still trading close to $70, Gold is stabilizing above $1.900, Silver consolidating in the $22.30-$23.00 range, Palladium still weak, AGRICULTURALS very volatile, with a very strong Cocoa +2.58% and quite weak Coffee and Sugar (that is rebounding +4.72% this morning after a -14% performance in the previous 2 weeks).

Today – Swiss CPI, EU/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Holidays: Canada Observes Canada Day, US Early Closure ahead of Independence Day.

SUGAR, Daily


Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (+4.72%%) is rebounding to $22.90 after dropping as low as $21.78. RSI is rising from near oversold levels, MACD is still negative. ATR 10 shows an average movement of 83 cents per day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 4th July 2023.

Market Update – July 4 – RBA on hold, US Independence Day.



After a shorter-than-usual US session yesterday due to today’s Independence Day holiday (US cash markets will be closed), which saw only the strong performance of TSLA (+6.9%) stand out after excellent manufacturing and delivery data, the Australian RBA kept rates on hold at 4.1% overnight in a Fed-style move (”more time will help us assess the real consequences of our actions”). The move was expected by 15/31 economists polled by Reuters, with 16 expecting a 25 bps hike. Australia’s top monetary authority believes inflation has ”passed its peak” but ”some further tightening may be required”. Inflation for the month of May showed a cooling to 5.6% according to the Bureau of Statistics. Among yesterday’s news, the further 500k bpd cut announced by Russia as well as the extension of the Saudis’ 1m bpd cut for another month allowed Crude Oil to soar before fading its gains almost entirely. Also, Nasdaq refiled its Blackrock Spot BTC ETF listing application with the US SEC and BTC took advantage of this to rise above 31k. 2y10y US curve inverted up to -110.6 bps.

OPEC+ cuts, updated JUN 2023


*FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.73 after having been up just 5 cents yesterday. EUR again just shy of 1.09, GBP almost flat at 1.2687. AUD has been mildly offered after last night’s RBA decision (-0.24%).
*Stocks – US Futures are slightly in red this morning (-0.03% US500/-0.09% USA100); APAC is indecisive: Nikkei is retreating from 33-year highs (-1%), China -0.20%, AU200 caught some bid after the CB decision reversing previous losses (+0.38%). TSLA +6.9%.
*Commodities – USOil rose up to $71.77, is now back at $70.08; Gold keeps climbing after having hit the intermediate support area just shy of 1.9k, now trading at 1924.80.
*Cryptos: BTC back above 31k.

Today – Germany Trade Balance, US Redbook index, CAD Manufacturing PMI, API weekly Crude Oil Stock. US Independence Day.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NEOUSD (+2.35%) to $9.68, RSI at 59.60, MACD positive and trying to raise its head again after a possible recent double top.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 5th July 2023.

Market Update – July 5 – US back to business, EU/UK PMIs, FOMC Minutes ahead.



After 2 days of subdued trading due to holidays in the US, we are back in full swing. Little happened yesterday except for news of new restrictions – this time from China – on the export of two metals critical to chip production, Gallium and Germanium. There was also a virtual meeting between the three biggest powers bidding to reshape the global order dominated by the United States, with Putin, XI and Modi meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, demonstrating a fairly close collaboration.

Currency indices, relative strength 05/07


*FX – The USDIndex is trading at 102.79, EUR flat at 1.0881, GBP regained 1.27, JPY below possible intervention levels at 144.65.
*Stocks – US/EU Futures are slightly in red this morning: US500 – 0.12%, USA100 -0.15%, Dax -0.41%, Cac -0.37%. APAC in red: China – 1.14%, HK -1.50%, AU200 -0.4%.
*Commodities – USOil regained $71 ($70.96 right now, is now back at $70.08); Gold flat at $1924.80.

Today – IT, FR, DE, EU, UK Services/Composite PMIs, EU PPI, US Factory Orders, FOMC minutes.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (+2.10%) continues its recovery after last week’s drop, trading at $23.37, RSI rising at 41.01, MACD still negative, price between the 50 and 200 Mas.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 6th July 2023.

Market Update – July 6 –FOMC archived, Jobs data ahead the next milestone.



Last night, the FOMC minutes showed the FED sees more rate hikes ahead but at a slower pace. Policymakers decided against a rate rise, citing the lagged impact of policy and other concerns as reasons to skip the June meeting after 10 straight rate increases which have totaled 5 percentage points, the most aggressive moves since the early 1980s. However, 12 out of 18 participants expected 2 or more hikes in 2023. Markets showed little reaction with all the moves being gradual and constant during the day but it’s worth noting that Yields are higher (2y US close to 5%, 10y shy of 4%). Also very interesting yesterday was the deterioration of the Services but especially Composite PMI data in China and Europe, showing that the effects of monetary transmission are slowly beginning to be felt in the real economy. On the same note, US factory orders came out lower than expected (+0.3% vs. +0.8% exp); at least this morning the German ones unexpectedly bounced back and this is a much needed short-term relief. Today’s labour data will be preamble to the NFP tomorrow. Treasury’s Yellen is kicking off her trip to China after EU’s Borrell rejection.

PMIs heatmap, Bloomberg


*FX – The USDIndex briefly regained 103 earlier this morning (102.93 now), GBP managed to stem losses yesterday (1.2713 now) while EUR (+0.24% yesterday, now trading at 1.0867) and AUD (settled at -0.57%, now 0.6674) were weaker. JPY is bid this morning and lost 144 (143.78).
*Stocks – US Futures are negative again (US500 -0.29%, USA100 -0.38%). Asia is heavy and Goldman’s downgrade of Chinese financial institutions is weighing: China -0.67%, HK -2.92%, Nikkei -1.70% on a stronger JPY. Foxconn sales dipped by 14% in Q2.
*Commodities – USOil has been supported by a consistent news flow from Saudi and OPEC yesterday, hit $72, now trading at $71.74. Gold was rejected by the ST trendline after touching $1935, trading at $1920 now.

Today – DE Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, US ADP, Jobless Claims, Jobs Openings, Trade Balance, ISM Services.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BCHUSD (+13.21%) keeps benefiting from its listing on EDX markets, now, RSI at 76.65, MACD positive, ATR 10 shows an average movement of 37.37 USD/day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 7th July 2023.

Market Update – July 7 – US is hiring now.



And that’s great news, especially since the average 30y fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.22% according to Mortgage News Daily and the monthly payment for a 200k mortgage has risen by $50 in one week. The ADP Employment Change data yesterday doubled expectations by rising +497k against the expected +228k figure: as you can see in the attached table, the increase occurred mainly in the service providing industry sector. As a matter of fact, just before, Challenger Job Cuts were half of the expected ones, while the most headline figure – Jobless Claims – came out broadly in line with expectations.

ADP Numbers

The reaction was immediate for USD and Interest Rates, while the drop for indices and stocks intensified shortly afterwards. Rates rose strongly, the 2y US rate touched 5.11% as it hasn’t done since 2007 and the 10y US also traded above 4%. Towards the end of the day yields fell a bit, but not so the 30y rate that stayed heavier. The USD index climbed almost 0.6% after the announcement, to 103.27, with the EURUSD down about 60 pips to 1.0833, and the USDJPY regained 144, lost earlier in the day (and at the closing settlement). The SP500 was losing > 1% before closing down -0.8% (as did the Nasdaq). DJ at -1%.

Such strong data have raised expectations of a new Fed hike in July to 91% – although in the long run the market still does not believe the bank will be as aggressive as it says, as can be seen by the still ongoing deviation between swaps and dot-plots. In the same vein, yesterday the UK terminal rate was also totally priced in at 6.5% in Mar 2024.

Today’s headline will naturally be the NFP, expected at +225k down from +339k last month: it would be the second lowest reading in 12 months and yesterday’s stellar figure keeps the bar very high. Attention will also be paid to Hourly Earnings as a slow down would take further pressure off inflationary pressures and to Unemployment, expected lower at 3.6%

*FX – The USDIndex is down -0.14% to 102.70 this morning, EURUSD is trading at 1.0892 while CABLE is just shy of 1.2750. USDJPY is weak, -0.40% at 143.448.
*Stocks – US Futures are mildly negative (US500 -0.08% at 4405, USA100 -0.07% at 15.066). In APAC: China -0.32%, HK -0.72%, Nikkei down to 34440. Tesla said to have started cutting jobs in Shanghai factory’s battery assembly division.
*Commodities – USOil still above $72, now trading at $72.10, Gold tested the 1900 area yesterday and ais noaw trading up at $1914.

Today – US NFP, Unemployment, Average earnings, CAD unemployment, ECB’s Lagarde and De Guindos speeches.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Coffee (+0.66%) rebounds off $155 after a 2-week long drop. Both MACD and RSI are negative, the latter one not being particularly oversold. 50 and 200 MAs are in the $180 area now, $35 higher than the current price.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

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