HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th June 2023.

Market Update – June 9 – USD & Yields slip, Treasuries & Stocks Rally.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex dived from the 104.00 holding pattern to 103.33 as weekly unemployment claims rose much more than expected by 28k to a 2-year high of 261k from 233k reversing the tightening in claims since April. Stocks closed with a positive bias as the S&P500 joined the NASDAQ in technical BULL market and the Eurozone enters a technical recession. Asian markets have followed through too, closing in positive territory, with European & UK Futures firmer too. FED now appear set for no hike next week, (like the BOJ) but very unlike the ECB. Ueda will “patiently maintain current monetary easing”. Binance in the US to stop USD deposits, Goldman Sachs “a US recession has become less likely.”

*FX – The USDIndex down to 103.33 the lowest since May 24. EUR holds above 1.0750, today at 1.0780. JPY briefly tested 138.70 lows from June 2. back to 139.40 now. Cable holds over the mighty 1.2500 at 1.2560.
*Stocks – Wall Street traded positively with tech bouncing back the NASDAQ gained over 1.00%, the DOW edged out a 0.50% gain. US500 (0.60%) closed 26.33pts at 4293, FUTS popped 4300, but are trading at 4290.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures tanked under $70.00 again, to $69.00 before bouncing back to $71.00. Gold – rallied to $1970 from below the key $1950 handle, and trades at $1965 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC reversed from the $27k level to 26.5k again in the wake of the Binance and Coinbase rejections of the SEC accusations.

Today – Canadian Jobs Data & Speech from ECB’s de Guindos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.57%) Rallied from 138.75 lows today to break 139.50, next resistance at 139.60. MA’s aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 61.20 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121, Daily ATR 1.177.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 12th June 2023.

Market Update – June 9 – USD & Yields slip, Treasuries & Stocks Rally.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher, European and US futures are also finding buyers as markets wait for this week’s round of central bank announcements. US inflation data and of course the FOMC announcement will be key focal points. Markets are positioned for another rate hike from the Fed, although are betting more on July, rather than June. The USDIndex is at 103.6, as the 10-year Treasury yield lifted 1.7 bp to 3.76%. Oil plummeted again after Goldman Sachs cut its outlook for crude price. UBS completes Credit Suisse takeover (integration process could take up to four years, while the report includes a lot of uncertainties about employees).

*FX – USDIndex down to 103.47. EUR holds at 1.0750, below 20-DMA for a 2nd day. JPY consolidating between 139.26-139.64. Cable holds at last 1-month high at 1.2580.
*Stocks – JPN225 and ASX closed with gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, the CSI 300 also inched higher, and the Hang Seng, while still in the red, has pared earlier losses. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.5%. Glencore has offered to buy Canadian mining company Teck Resources. Novartis agrees to buy Chinook for up to $3.5B.



*Commodities – USOil – GS slashes Brent forecast in waning demand. USOIL tanked under $70.00 again, to $69.24, while UKOIL is currently at $73.66 (weak Chinese data, including deepening factory gate deflation and flagging exports).
*Gold – steady at $1960.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds above $25.4k level. Regulatory challenges and liquidity issues keep the crypto market resilient.

Today – Australia closed (King’s Birthday Holiday). US Monthly Budget Statement will be released .



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ETHUSD (-5.07%) gapped down on Asia open from 1,833 to 1,717.39. MAs flattened, but MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0 and RSI 21.12 & flat, H1 ATR 15.50, Daily ATR 71.14.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 13th June 2023.

Market Update – June 13 – Stocks Higher, Pound Up, All Eyes on CPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian stock markets moved higher as the PBOC cut the 10-day reverse repo rate, which fueled speculation of a cut to its medium term lending facility on Thursday. A weak recovery and low inflation have increased pressure to do more to support the economy and a rate cut from the PBOC would support any official stimulus package that may be in the making. This coupled with market speculation of a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle and a continuation of the BOJ’s expansionary policy helped to bolster sentiment overnight. US and European futures rose along with Asian equities.
German HICP confirmed at 6.3% y/y – showed a sharp decline in headline rates. There are some signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing, although rates clearly remain far too high for the ECB’s liking. UK unemployment declined, wage growth accelerated and employment growth posted 250K more jobs over the three months to April. A much stronger than expected labour market report that will only harden market expectations for a series of rate hikes from the BOE this year.

*FX – The USDIndex has dropped to 103.25. EUR is a breath below 1.08. JPY is steady while Sterling strengthened and Cable lifted further above the 1.2560 mark.



*Stocks – The JPN225 is up 1.8%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 have lifted 0.3% and 0.1%. US500 breaks 1-year resistance and extends to 4357.44, US100 climbed another 1.53% on the back of a record 12th consecutive gain in #Tesla. AI enthusiasm also supported. #Oracle +6% as cloud sales gained 54% in the fiscal fourth quarter to $4.4 billion, signalling the software maker’s cloud business is benefiting from heightened demand for artificial intelligence (AI) workload. #Carnival +12.45% after JPMorgan and Bank of America upgraded shares of the cruise operator. #Apple Inc. shares ended at their first all-time high in more than a year. #Nio (+8.67%) cuts prices on all electric vehicles by $4,200 in China.
*Commodities – USOil – below 68 but slightly higher from 66.80 low. Gold – trades at $1962 now.

Today – EU ZEW and US Inflation. BOE Gov Bailey Speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.50%) Rallied to 154.40. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line close to 0, RSI 65 but flat, H1 ATR 0.173, Daily ATR 1.112.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 14th June 2023.

Market Update – June 14 – The Big Decision!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Cold feet and cautionary profit taking weighed on Treasuries heading into the FOMC decision Wednesday.
There were no surprises in the May CPI report and that supported market expectations that the Fed will remain on a “hawkish hold,” including likely boosts in the dots to leave the door open for a July hike. Current rate probabilities for 14 June presents an 89.6% chance for a pause today. Wall Street managed further gains, in large part on further momentum from big tech and AI, while in Asia sentiment held up overnight and the Nikkei closed 1.5% higher as Toyota shares rallied following the reappointment of its chairman and as markets expect the BoJ to confirm a continuation of the ultra-accommodative policy settings. European and US stocks are down today.
May ranked as the largest month of buying of US equities since 2010. US L/S net leverage rose to 12-month highs as a result of the buying. Mega-Cap TMT drove the bulk of the buying in North America pushing net exposure to these names to decade highs. Traditional defensive continued to be bought with May being the 4th largest month of buying since 2018.



*FX – The USDIndex has remained within yesterday’s range and is at 103.36. EUR is at 1.0785. JPY holds above 140 while Cable broke 1.26 and holds above it as yesterday UK data boosted expectations of further BoE hikes and Sterling rallied as Gilt yields spiked.
*Stocks – The JPN225 is up 1.5%, US500 has had its fourth consecutive increase close to 4,400, while US100 gained 0.8%.
*Commodities – USOil – higher at $70. Gold – slightly higher at $1950.50 now.



Today – All eyes are on the FOMC decision as markets look ahead to the ECB announcement on Thursday, where Lagarde is expected to deliver another 25 bp hike.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.50%) Pulled back and steadied at 139.88. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line decline but remain well above 0.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 15th June 2023.

Market Update – June 15 – From Dovish Hikes to a Hawkish Pause.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The Fed on Wednesday kept the official interest rate unchanged in the target range of 5%-5.25%. But it was its projections, the so-called dot-plot, that moved markets, sending them lower as the central bank projected a median rate of 5.6% for this year, meaning two more increases. Powell stated that a decision for July has not been made yet, but markets are now anticipating a hike in July and another one in September. No more cuts are expected this year. The median target level projections for the Federal Funds Rate in 2024 is now 4.6% but Powell affirmed that he is predicting ”a couple of years out for rate cuts”. The Central Bank also raised expectations for economic growth (1% vs 0.4% prev.) and core PCE (3.9% vs 3.6% prev.), lowered them for unemployment (4.1% vs 4.5% prev.) and headline PCE (3.2% vs 3.3% prev.).

Dot Plots


The point of this pause is to assess the real effects of the monetary policy conducted so far, which has “long and variable lags” but the ”risks to inflation are still to the upside”. During the conference Powell stressed the importance of the Labour Market, affirmed that it would be nice to see a ”gradual slowdown in wage growth”, acknowledged ”there will be losses in commercial real estate” and specified the Fed is ”carefully monitoring the banking system” (Bank Stress Tests next week!).

OVERNIGHT – New Zealand fell into recession (-0.1% q/q after -0.7% last quarter), Australian Unemployment fell unexpectedly to 3.6%, Machinery Orders in Japan improved (5.5% m/m) and China cut its 1y Medium Term Lending Facility by 10 bps to 2.65%. Retail sales there cooled down, up 12.7% in May.

FX – The USDIndex fell before the decision, below 103 (102.64 low), and recovered after (103.23 right now). EUR spiked above 1.08 (1.0821 now), AUD gained almost 0.9% to 0.6834 before giving up all of its gains after the decision. Now trading back to 0.6827. JPY is trading above 141 on the eve of the BOJ decision.
Stocks – US30 -0.68%, US500 flat, US100 +0.70%. Dax hit a new ATH @ 16336. China and HK up on the rate cut, Nikkei slightly negative (-0.29% now).
Commodities – USOil – flat at $68.57 despite IEA yesterday. Gold – down, broke $1940, $1937 now. Silver weighs, –1.68% at $23.52.



Today – ECB expected to hike 25 bps, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed and NY Empire State manufacturing, US Retail sales, BOJ Tonight.

AUDJPY, H1



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.18%) Going up in a straight line on weak Yen and surprising Australia unemployment. 96.34 now, RSI 77.7, MACD positive.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th June 2023.

Market Update – June 16 – Stocks euphoria spreads as the USD takes a hit.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia-Pacific markets are higher today, following another brilliant performance for the US market yesterday as the Bank of Japan again left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.1% and stated that inflation is slowing and it is closely monitoring the FX market. Additionally, in Japan the opposition filed a vote of no confidence for the cabinet a few hours ago. Meanwhile, further stimulus, both monetary and measures to support the housing market, is expected from the PBOC.

Yesterday’s US data was generally mixed but good retail sales stand out (+0.3% vs. +0.1% exp) ahead of today’s Michigan Consumer Confidence data. This helped the US indices have another great session: US500 is now +3% for the week, up 6 days in a row for its longest winning streak since Nov21; US100 is up +4% this week only, 8 weeks in a row (longest since Mar19). The weakness of the USD was another reason for the good US performance yesterday and it has increased after the ECB press conference where Lagarde maintained a very hawkish posture after raising rates by 25 bps. Day today, Quadruple Witching.



*FX – The USDIndex has dropped –1.24% to 101.76, now trading at 101.70. EUR has breached above 1.09, now 1.0954, Cable above 1.28, AUD touched 0.6899, JPY weak and approaching 141 again (104.83 now).
*Stocks – China, HK, Australia benchmarks all rose, Nikkei recovered from previous losses, now trading at 33687. US500 +1.22% at 4425, US100 +1.20%, US30 +1.26%. Microsoft hits a new ATH (+3.19% at 348,10), Oracle, Alibaba > +3%, Adobe jumps +3% in afterhours after beating results, Virgin Galactic +40% in afterhours.
*Commodities – USOil – +3.64% at $70.68, Gold – recovered from a low at $1924, now trading at $1960.



Today – Quadruple Witching Day, EU HICP, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ZARJPY (+0.74%) on a strong uptrend since 2nd Jun, trading at 7.74 now. RSI sloped upward (66.3), MACD positive and histogram just crossed the line on the H1 timeframe.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th June 2023.

Market Update – June 19 – US Holidays, Blinken in China, Waiting for the PBoC.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia-Pacific markets largely fell on Monday in a week when the PBoC is broadly expected to cut its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates tomorrow while uncertainty is surrounding China’s economy and the scope of any potential stimulus. In an attempt to improve tense relations between the US and the Asian giant, Blinken is on a high-stakes diplomatic trip to Beijing, making him the highest level American official to visit Beijing since Biden became president, after a number of prominent figures from the corporate world ranging from Elon Musk to Jamie Dimon. Last week ended with a red day for US indices that anyway reached several major milestones: best week since March for the US500 and US100, up 2.6% and 3.3% on the week, 5 and 8 weeks in a row respectively. US30 posted its 3rd consecutive week of gains. Today US cash markets are closed for the Juneteenth Holiday.

*FX –The USDIndex is flat at 101.89 (+0.06%) and the greenback is quite volatile against the APAC currencies (AUD -0.17% at 0.6865, low at 0.6834; NZD –0.15% at 0.62238, low at 0.6205); USDCNH is back on the rise at 7.15 (+0.3%). EUR, Cable are flattish.
*Stocks – China –1.42%, HK -1.53%, Nikkei -0.93% (still hovering close to 33-year high). EU Futures in red (DAX -0.35%, FTSE -0.10%) as are the US ones (the 3 major benchmarks are all -0.15%). Last week added another rise to an impressive streak, NVDA added 10%, MSFT 4.7% and hit a record Thursday. On Friday though, several big tech names fell >1% (GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL).
*Commodities – USOil – -0.76% at $70.91. the spread against UKOil is at $4.80 up from $3.62 on 24th May, Gold – rejected $1968 last Friday, now trading at $1955. Metals are in the red.



Today – US Juneteenth holidays, CAD Industrial Product Price.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.44%) on a strong uptrend since 1st Jun, trading at 97.12 now. RSI sloped downward and overbought (76.9), MACD positive on the Daily timeframe. ATR (10) ticking slightly higher than 95.6 pips on average per day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th June 2023.

Market Update – June 20 – PBoC cuts, RBA doubtful, UK rates surge.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Last night the People’s Bank of China cut its 1y and 5y loan prime by 10 bps each to 3.55% and 4.20% respectively, as broadly expected. The move triggered a classic ”sell the fact” reaction and APAC markets – with the exception of Australia – are all negative for the second day in a row; shares of mainland Chinese developers slid over 3% in HK. Meanwhile, in minutes released for the RBA’s June meeting, the central bank revealed that members were deliberating between raising rates or holding them to assess additional data and finally made the decision after seeing that inflation data had “shifted to the upside”. Uncertainty among bank members caused a sharp fall in the AUD, currently the weakest of the majors. Yesterday there was also news that Buffett raised his stake in five Japanese trading firms to average more than 8.5% and this morning almost all of them jumped close to 4% (Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Itochu, Marubeni). But what is worthy of attention are the expectations for the BOE meeting on Thursday with the 2 year Gilt rate well above the highs of last autumn’s mini-budget crisis (5.078% now), when the 10 year Gilt close to the levels that had caused fears for the UK pension industry and prompted the resignation of the Truss government (due to a very disorderly move back then) and traders now expecting a terminal rate between 5.75% and 6% (4.5% now).

UK 2 year Gilt



*FX –The USDIndex is up for the 3rd day in a row at 102.18 (0.34%), EURUSD flat, Cable is consolidating just under 1.28 (1.2780 now) and EURGBP at 0.8544, just below last December’s low. USDJPY at 142! USDCNH is resuming its run towards 7.26 after the fall following the FED break, 7.1784 now
*Stocks – China -0.79%, HK -1.51%, Nikkei -0.49%. US Futures in red (US500 -0.40%, US100 -0.52%, US30 -0.43%). Yesterday in Europe CAC40 (-1.01%) fell back to underperform its peers, probably on weak China and the weight of LVMH (-1.75%)
*Commodities – USOil – –0.85% at $70.82. Gold – slightly shy of $1950, Copper and Palladium weak (-0.8% and 1.35% respectively)

Today – German PPI, Switzerland Trade Balance, US Building permits and Housing Starts, FED’s Williams, ECB’s De Guindos speeches, BOJ Minutes.

EURAUD, H1



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.74%%) exploded to the upside after RBA’s minutes, above 50 / 200 MA H1, MACD positive , RSI at 74.66.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st June 2023.

Market Update – June 21 – US Rally Falters, UK CPI Surprises, Awaiting BOE and SNB.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chinese stocks led Asian shares down, as investors remain dissatisfied with Beijing’s failure to issue specific support measures. Hong Kong was the heaviest, while the Nikkei recovered from earlier losses and is now trading green helped by a weak JPY that is heading back towards 142. The BOJ minutes showed that several members believe the CPI will return to 2% and BOJ’s Adachi stated that is too early to change the easy monetary policy: risks are to the downside for the economy even if there is plenty of uncertainty. The US stocks rally is faltering after reaching near overbought levels, yet yesterday they managed to recover from the heaviest losses recorded at the start of the session (almost -1%). The start of the US session was risk-off and dragged gold down to $1,930, Crude Oil to $69.50 and commodities more broadly, before partially reversing. Powell continues his tour of testimony that will take him before the House Financial Services Committee today. CPI data in the UK are just out and they are a new surprise to the upside (CORE + 7.1% y/y exp +6.8%, Headline +8.7% y/y exp 8.4%) with Cable testing 1.28 while yesterday traders were easing their bets of a terminal rate at 6% (down to a 50% chance from 90% before) and the 10 year GILT rallied while the GBP underperformed. Now, there’s a 50% chance of a 50 bps hike tomorrow and a 100% odds of the final rate being at 6% by the end of the year. Tomorrow, BOE and SNB are both expected to raise rates.

Currency Indices Relative strength, last 10 hours



*FX –The USDIndex is flat at 102.19, EUR above 1.09, Cable is testing 1.28. USDCNH has breached 7.20 as the (still) export based economy is slowing down.
*Stocks – China -0.21%, HK -1.58%, Nikkei +0.68%. US Futures absolutely flat. FedEx fell about 3% in extended trading after the shipping giant posted weaker-than-expected revenue for its most recent quarter – not good for the real economy when a carrier has bad results.
*Commodities – USOil – +0.79%, still stuck at $71.44. Gold – close to recent lows, trading at $1932.68 now, Silver heavy yesterday (-3.58%) and in the red todayToday – German PPI, Switzerland Trade Balance, US Building permits and Housing Starts, FED’s Williams, ECB’s De Guindos speeches, BOJ Minutes.

Today – CAD retail sales, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Jefferson, Cook, Goolsbee, Mester & ECB’s Schnabel.

NZDJPY, H1



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.48 %) the Kiwi is taking advantage of the structural weakness of the Yen, 87.63 right now on H1: RSI at 65, MACD positive but Histogram crossing the line to the downside, price is between the 50 and 200 MAs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd June 2023.

Market Update – June 22 – ”Super Thursday”.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The Asian stock market was negative with JPN225 down -0.9%, although with the BoJ sticking to its accommodative policy stance and corporate reforms helping to lift sentiment, Japanese markets have outperformed over the past year. China and Hong Kong are on holiday today (Dragon Boat Festival). Markets continue to adjust Fed tightening expectations after Powell repeated yesterday that the fight against inflation is not over yet. US futures are in the red, as markets wait for rate announcements from the BoE. The SNB meanwhile today increased rates by 25 bps.

Higher than expected inflation numbers have left markets pricing in some risk of a 50 bp move from the BoE today. Stagflation risks are back on the agenda and Sterling didn’t benefit from the prospect of aggressive tightening moves.



*FX – The USDIndex corrected yesterday, but today has stabilised, and is at 101.60. EUR meanwhile held above 1.0980 after ECB’s Villeroy tried to tame speculation of a September hike. The EUR also strengthened against the Pound, despite the outperformance of Bunds versus Gilts. USDJPY remains high at 141.80 after BoJ’s Ueda said the BoJ will persistently continue with monetary easing.
*Stocks – GER40 and UK100 are underperforming and down -0.6% and -0.7% respectively. #Amazon down after Federal Trade Commission sues Amazon for enrolling consumers in Prime without consent and #Tesla stock sank 5.5% on Wednesday, its steepest loss in two months, The US100 sank 1.2%, US500 was down about 0.5%, while the US30 fell 0.2%.
*Commodities – USOil and Gold slightly lower but steady at $72.30 and $1929.20.

Today – SNB press conference, BOE rate decision and Press conference, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Bowman & ECB’s De Guindos and Panetta.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) UK100 (-1.02%) dipped on the EU open at 7463.67. Fast MAs aligned lower, RSI at 21 and falling and MACD & signal line are negatively configured ATR (H1) is at 13.26 and ATR (D) is at 65.09.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.