HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date 24th July 2023.

Market Update – July 24 – It is all about central banks!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It is all about central bank decisions this week with three major banks on the calendar including the FOMC, ECB, and BoJ, with the markets positioning ahead of these releases. Trading was quiet heading into the weekend while Treasuries have gone through several gyrations in recent weeks amid on-again, off-again expectations regarding the future policy path. Dollar steadied at 100.73 as bearish US Dollar bets prevail. Today, stock markets traded mixed and Japan bourses rallied, as comments and reports suggest the bank sees little need to tweak policy or address the side effects of YCC.

Sunday: Spain was plunged into political uncertainty on Sunday night as both the right and left failed to secure a clear path to forming a government, even though the opposition People’s Party won the most seats in parliament.



OIL is still headed north, USOil regained $76, UKOil is trading above $80. You have probably heard about the rally in agriculturals and it’s good to keep an eye on the commodities prices input for future inflation developments. Anyway, Wheat price is still well below where it has been for the vast majority of time since the beginning of 2022.

*FX – The USDIndex firmer at 100.73. USDJPY at Friday’s highs at 141.55 as gains against JPY were pronounced after indications from BoJ Ueda that the Bank is not looking to tweak YCC any time soon. GBP hovering around 20-DMA, at 1.2870, while EUR holds above 1.11 for now.
*Stocks – The JPN225 closed up 1.23% at 32,700.7 amid the automakers rally including Mitsubishi (+5.55%). GER40 and UK100 are down -0.4% and US futures are narrowly mixed, with the US100 outperforming slightly. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was a bit of an outlier on the downside with a drop of 1.5%, dragged lower by Chinese property developers which tumbled more than 5%. #Nvidia -2.66%, #META -2.73%, Chevron +1.46% (strong oil earnings) & #Tesla -1.10%.
*Commodities – USOil remains supported as supply restrictions start to bite, at $76.60.
*Gold – failed to break 20-DMA and currently settled at $1962.80.

Today – Data on Consumer Confidence, Q2 GDP and US inflation. Microsoft, GM, Verizon, Alphabet, Exxon Mobil, Meta and more stocks to watch this week.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.54%) return below 1.1100 post German manufacturing PMI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 25th July 2023.

Market Update – July 25 – Investors are Buying into Hopes


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Optimism in China’s recovery has made a comeback and investors are buying into hopes that decisive stimulus action from Beijing will boost domestic demand. The Chinese equities jumped on Tuesday, after the country’s ruling politburo vowed to boost employment and revive a “tortuous” economic recovery. China’s powerful 24-member politburo said it would tackle unemployment, speed up issuance of local government special bonds and boost consumption of electronics, electric vehicles and other goods. The JPN225 struggled through and gains in Australia were much more muted. Futures in Europe and the US haven’t moved much as markets turn cautious ahead of this week’s key central bank announcements in Germany, the US and Japan. Wheat prices climbed to a 5-month high on Tuesday, as Russian assaults against Ukrainian ports that ship the grain intensified.



*FX – The USDIndex is at 101.26. USDJPY is struggling for a third day in a row to overcome 142.00. GBP closed below 20-DMA yesterday and holds below it so far at 1.2840, while EUR holds above 1.11.
*Stocks – Hong Kong jumped as much as 5% and the Hang Seng is currently up 4.0%, while the CSI 300 has rallied 2.9%.
*Commodities – USOil spiked to $79 area. Oil is heading for a solid monthly gain, as output cuts start to bite and counterbalance concern that the sluggish recovery in China will cap demand. There are now more signs that Russia is making good on its pledge to rein in supplies with data showing that the country’s crude shipments fell to a 6-month low in the 4 weeks to July 16. Supply could further tighten in August, as Russian oil exports are set to be reduced further. A decline in drilling activity in the US is adding to supply concerns and the US Energy Information Administration has already revised down its short-term outlook for US production with further corrections possible unless the trend in drilling activity reverses. Also China flagged more measures to boost economic growth, aiding the outlook for energy demand just as the global market shows signs of tightening.
*Gold – holds a floor above 50-DMA at $1955.

Today – Germany’s Ifo business survey and IMF publishes an update to its World Economic Outlook. Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Verizon, UBS, Nextera.



Biggest FX Mover USOIL spiked to $79.16 while today it sustains gains above 78 territory.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 28th July 2023.

Market Update – July 28.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

China stocks rallied and hit a 6-week high, as investor confidence in official stimulus measures strengthened. Property, financial and consumer related stocks in particular benefited, after signals of further support. The BoJ signalled a widening of the band for the 10-year yield, which was taken as a sign that the BoJ is heading for policy normalisation. The Yen rallied as a result. Bunds are selling off in early trade, after much stronger than expected French GDP numbers and as markets continue to digest yesterday’s ECB announcement. French inflation dropped to 5%, the lowest level for 16 months. In US, much stronger than expected GDP, tighter than projected jobless claims, a pop in durable goods orders, a bounce in pending home sales, and a narrowing in the goods trade deficit boosted risk for a 12th rate hike for the FED. Bonds and Stocks selloff.



Overnight: BoJ tweaks yield curve control. The BoJ kept the target for 10-year yields at around 0% but signalled that the 0.5% ceiling was now a reference point, not a rigid upper limit. It will offer to buy bonds at the 1% mark, which means an effective widening of the band. Ueda vowed to keep easing, while at the same time, he pledged to continue to ease tenaciously and to add further easing if necessary. Ueda added that he expects inflation to slow before gradually picking up again.So some attempt to play down the importance of today’s surprise move and prevent markets from buying into an imminent move towards policy normalisation.

*FX – The USDIndex held most of yesterday’s gains and is at 101.72, as the 10-year Treasury yield inched higher. The Yen strengthened with USDJPY at 138 lows. GBP drifted to 1.2760 and EUR at 1.0950.
*Stocks – The CSI 300 is up 2.1%, the Hang Seng still 1.2%, and JPN225 declined. #Evergrande plunged as trading resumed nearly 16 months after the stock was suspended pending the release of financial results. #Ford stock is higher after hours after the automaker reported strong second quarter earnings and also upped its full-year profit forecast, though it did project steeper annual losses in its EV division. Ford’s results come after its crosstown rival #GM reported strong earnings and raised its full-year profit guidance for a second time. #Intel’s (+8% after hours) earnings surprised positively after two consecutive quarters of record losses. Strong sales of drugs for cancer and diabetes helped #AstraZeneca beat sales and earnings expectations.
*Commodities – USOil spiked to $80.30 on tighter supply (Fed raises interest rates by 25 bp, US crude inventories fall less than expected, ECB raises rates to 23-year high, OPEC+ panel meeting in focus)
*Gold – drifted to $1941 from $1980, amid strong US economic data which renewed the Fed’s pledge to stay hawkish.

Today – German Inflation, Canadian GDP and US PCE, Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Procter & Gamble, Chevron etc.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.31%) bottomed at $91.78 with RSI and MACD turning below neutral in line with 3-day sharp decline. ATR(H1) is at 0.591 and ATR(D) is at 1.181.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 31st July 2023.

Market Update – July 31 – Another month of gains for stocks comes to an end.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Last Friday, the headline PCE figure for June came in at 3%, the lowest annual increase since March 2021 and just one percentage point over the Fed’s target of 2% inflation; Core set at 4.1. US indices cheered the data and are set for another strong month of gains, the fifth in a row for the US500 that is up 3% in July compared to Nasdaq which has increased 3.8%. Industrial production y/y fell in Japan as did retail sales on a monthly basis; in China, manufacturing PMI is still in contraction (49.3), while the services component is deteriorating (51.5 from 53.2). China just issued measures to recover and expand consumption as per a State Council Document just released. JPY keeps collapsing despite the ”adjustment” on the 10y policy: last Friday a mysterious buyer stepped in at 0.57%, today the BOJ officially announced unscheduled bond buying at 0.60%. This week we have the BOE and RBA (the latter tomorrow morning, expected to raise by 25 bps to 4.35% despite the latest inflation data), US NFP data and the earnings season continues with AAPL and AMZN reporting on Thursday.



Overnight: BoJ tweaks yield curve control. The BoJ kept the target for 10-year yields at around 0% but signalled that the 0.5% ceiling was now a reference point, not a rigid upper limit. It will offer to buy bonds at the 1% mark, which means an effective widening of the band. Ueda vowed to keep easing, while at the same time, he pledged to continue to ease tenaciously and to add further easing if necessary. Ueda added that he expects inflation to slow before gradually picking up again.So some attempt to play down the importance of today’s surprise move and prevent markets from buying into an imminent move towards policy normalisation.

*FX – USDIndex is up 0.2% to 101.61 boosted by a weak Yen (USDJPY -0.46% at 141.81). EURUSD sits just above 1.10, Cable hovers around 1.285, AUDUSD is bid before the RBA tomorrow (+0.51% at 0.6681).
*Stocks – US futures are slightly in red: US500 -0.13%, US30 -0.07%, US100 -0.17%. A similar picture in Europe where GER40 futures are -0.14%. GOOGL increased 10% last week and the US market is set for another month of (broad) gains.
*Commodities – USOil -0.5% now at $80.25, UKOil hit $85 and is now at $84.51.
Gold – down -0.23% to $1954.91, XAG – 0.40% at $24.24.

USDJPY, 30 mins



Today – Germany retail sales, GDP from Italy, Spain and Europe, European HICP, US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) Coffee (-2.11%) trading at $158.60 heading south towards the recent $154.50 bottom area. RSI at 41.46 and downward sloped, MACD negative, 50d – 200d MAs downward sloped (and have recently crossed).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 1st August 2023.

Market Update – August 1 – A traditionally volatile month kicks in.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Overnight RBA left rates unchanged at 4.1% against expectations: recent CPI and PPI data – much weaker than expected – must have weighed on the decision even if the bank stated that ”further monetary policy tightening may be required” and considers that inflation ”is to return to the target range of 2-3% by late 2025”. Keep in mind the tight local labour market. We had more bad data from China where Caixin Manufacturing shrank to contraction territory in July (49.2) and house sales figures reported the largest dip in a year. At least HSBC reported an 89% rise in pre-tax profit and is up 1.8% in HK. 10y JGB are still finding a bottom at 0.60%, Yen is tumbling and the Japanese Minister of Finance Suzuki is back to the rhetoric of ”closely monitoring the market”. US markets were up again yesterday and US500 has not had a >1% drop in 41 days now; Russell 2000 has been the monthly best performer testifying to how the rally is no longer driven only by Tech mega-caps but its breadth is broadening. This is the busiest week of the earnings season and after more than 160 companies included in the US500 have already reported, today we await Merck, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Norwegian, AMD and many more.

US500, 5 mins, Intraday Shorts covering at the close?


*FX – USDIndex is up 0.15% to 101.77, AUDUSD fell 0.74% after RBA decision (0.6668) giving up just some of yesterday’s gains, EURUSD is just shy of 1.10, Cable down 0.1% to 1.2820. USDJPY eyes 143.
*Stocks – US and EU futures are slightly red, -0.1% on average. Dax has been trading above its previous ATH seen in June for a couple of days now. Nikkei up 0.65% on weak JPY.
Commodities – USOil extends its rally, trades at $81.52 now. Corn, Wheat fractionally up after a 5 day losing streak, Copper reacts to $400 but is surprisingly edging higher on a 2 month perspective.
*Gold – trading at $1959 this morning, XAG at $24.85.

Today – Germany, Europe unemployment, US Canada – Spain – Italy – France – Germany Manufacturing PMI, API weekly Crude Oil Stock. EARNINGS: Uber, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Norwegian BFO; AMD, Starbucks, MicroStrategy, Pinterest, ATC.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) XLMUSD (-3.67%) trading at $0.1468 and consolidating within a triangle after the recent rally. MACD histogram just crossed to the downside, RSI negatively sloped.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 2nd August 2023.

Market Update – August 2 – U.S. rating downgraded at Fitch.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US stock futures fell Tuesday night after Fitch downgraded the US’s long-term rating to AA+ from AAA Tuesday night, citing ”an erosion of governance and expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years”. The agency called out brinksmanship in Washington around debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year. This sparked some risk aversion flows with APAC indices falling led by Japan while JPY is strengthening on safe haven trading even if Bank of Japan has pushed back on speculation its recent policy adjustment marked the start of a tightening cycle. Bonds are lower around the globe with 10Y US back above 4% and 10Y JGB at 0.62%. The negativity in Asia was also fostered by the softening of the manufacturing activity across the ASEAN region that expanded at the slowest pace in 7 months. We saw some weak macro data in the US yesterday (ISM, Jolts Jobs Openings) and particularly eye-catching has been the Crude Oil inventory data which pointed to a record weekly drawdown (-15.4M) and helped Crude to climb above $82. Earnings season is more than halfway over with results coming in stronger than expected. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported, about 82% have posted positive surprises as of last night.

US Debt to GDP ratio


*FX – JPY is the best performing major this morning, USDJPY –0.45% to 142.68, EURUSD +0.04% at 1.0989. All other currencies are down vs the USD with antipodean leading the losses, AUDUSD –0.56% at 0.6577, NZDUSD -0.74% at 0.6104. USDIndex just shy of 102.
*Stocks – Futures are negative this morning: US500 -0.49%, US100 -0.78%, GER40 -1.17%. Asia fell led by NIKKEI -2.44%, HK – 2.23%. AMD rose 2% after market after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results.
*Commodities – USOil regains $82, $82.17 now. Copper clearly lost $400 ($389 now), Agriculturals trade up with conviction.
*Gold – stuck at $1949 this morning, XAG at $24.32.

Today – US ADP National Employment. EARNINGS: PayPal, Qualcomm.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) JPN225 (-2.42%) trading at 32590 and just in contact with its 50d MA. RSI negatively sloped at 48.36, 5 month trendline awaits at 32k this morning.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 3rd August 2023.

Market Update – August 3 – 48 sessions later, the BOJ’s weak heart, BOE, AAPL & AMZN await.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

48 sessions: this is how long it has been since the last time the US500 was down more than 1%, on 23 May. Fitch’s downgrade was a good excuse to sell a probably expensive market and the US100 fell 2.21%. Rates were sold, especially on the long end (the 10y) which led to a steepening of the curve again (the 2y10y is now at -77 bps): this is a classic where the movement comes not from a change in the outlook for growth, inflation etc but from a (minimal) ”increase” in country risk. Currently only Moody’s retains the AAA qualification. Admittedly, a much higher than expected ADP figure helped the selling pressure on bonds (+324k vs. +189k expected) but let’s not be under any illusions about the NFP: it has long proved to be a poor forecaster.

US500, H4


Overnight the BOJ implemented its second unscheduled bond buying intervention as the JPY sank again. Later we will also have the BOE’s decision, which is expected to make a difficult choice between a 50 bps increase or perhaps 25 bps with a focus on more quantitative tightening. Interestingly, the easing cycle started in South America and then Chile, while Brazil also cut 50 bps yesterday, more than expected. Finally, let us not forget the big names that will report tonight, Amazon and Apple: for the former the options market is pricing an implied movement of 5.9% after the results, for the latter only 1.59%.

*FX – USDJPY is up to 143.88 on a sinking Yen, further dragging down the USD Index that stays at 102.60 now. EUR and GBP are little moved while AUDUSD and NZDUSD sank to 0.6535 and 0.6073 respectively.
*Stocks – US Futures are slightly up (0.1%) this morning after yesterday’s sell off. China50 +0.78%, JPN225 -0.94%. Qulacomm slipped nearly -7% after hours after missing on fiscal 3rd quarter revenue and guidance for the current period.
*Commodities – USOil suffered some selling pressure as did the overall market yesterday (-2.95%) and is now trading at $79.59, Copper at $385.15.
*Gold – flat this morning after having retreated to $1934, XAG at $23.66.

Today – European HCOB Composite and Services PMI, EU PPI, BOE Interest Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, US Factory orders, Services PMI. EARNINGS: Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Airbnb after the close, Moderna BTO.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) Coffee (+1.64%) trading at 167.45, continues the upward move from the $154.5 support, RSI positively sloped at 55.51, MACD still negative but moving north.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 5th August 2023.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally.
The fallout from the Fitch ratings downgrade for the US and the worries over the debt situation the US is facing could continue weighing on the Stock market. Robust results from tech giants such as Amazon helped to lift sentiment. This week’s agenda is relatively quiet with Inflation out of the US and China dominating the calendar along with earnings releases.

Tuesday – 08 August 2023
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00) – China’s trade surplus fell to $70.62 billion in June 2023, as exports dropped more than imports amid persistent weak demand from home and abroad.
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German inflation for July is anticipated to remain steady at 6.5% y/y and 0.5% m/m.

Wednesday – 09 August 2023
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese inflation sank in June at 0.2%, with Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, at 0.4% in June, compared with 0.6% in May. PPI sank 5.4% in June from a year earlier, while the annual decline in June was China’s ninth consecutive drop and its steepest since December 2015.
RBNZ Inflation Expectations for Q3 (QoQ) (NZD, GMT 03:00)

Thursday – 10 August 2023
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The CPI is expected to show gains of 0.2% for the headline and 0.3% for the core in July, after June gains of 0.2% for both the headline and core. CPI gasoline prices look poised to rise 0.5% in July. We expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices through 2023 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected July CPI figures would result in a bigger y/y headline rise of 3.3% from 3.0% in June, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. A persistent moderation in y/y gains should be seen for all the inflation gauges through 2023 that will trim pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary conditions.

Friday – 11 August 2023
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y.
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – July PPI gains of 0.1% for the headline and 0.2% for the core are expected, after June rises of 0.1% for both the headline and the core. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric rising to 0.6% from 0.1%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March of 2022. We expect the y/y core measure to fall to 2.2% from 2.4%, versus an all-time high of 9.7% in March of 2022. The y/y calculation has fallen sharply through mid-2023 as comparisons have become much easier.
Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US consumer sentiment printed 71.6 for the final July reading (was 72.6 preliminary). It is up 7.2 points on the month after rising 5.2 points to 64.4 in June. Confidence has been recovering from the -5.0 plunge to 62.0 in March on the fallout from the SVB collapse and related banking fallout. This is the strongest since October 2021’s 71.7 and is now well above the record nadir of 50.0 from June 2022.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 7th August 2023.

arket Update – August 7 – ‘Soft landing’ or even ‘no landing’?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A smaller than expected 187k NFP rise and -49k in downward revisions to May and June provided the spark for the bond market to correct from the post-Fitch and supply driven selloff. The belly of the curve outperformed as the jobs report did not alter Fed policy expectations and the markets continue to price in only about a 33% risk for another rate hike. The steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. The ‘soft landing’ or even ‘no landing’ narrative is gathering momentum, and JP Morgan on Friday became the latest Wall Street bank to remove or delay their US recession call. Stocks initially rallied on the employment headlines, but spillover from disappointing Apple earnings results, which overshadowed Amazon’s beat, saw buying peter out and profits taken through the afternoon.



This morning: German industrial production contracted -1.5% m/m in June – more than anticipated after two strong months of orders inflow for the manufacturing sector. The strong bounce in manufacturing orders offers some hope for the coming month, but construction is likely to continue to struggle. Consumption may have strengthened in the second quarter, but these numbers leave the risk of a downward revision to Q2 GDP.

*FX – USD Index rose at 102.05, EURUSD fell back to 1.0980, USDJPY recovered some losses but is struggling to break 142.30. Cable holds at 1-month lows, currently at 1.2720.
*Stocks – The US100, US500 and MSCI World index last week all registered their biggest weekly losses since March. Amazon closed +8.27% and Apple at -4.8%. Today, Asian share markets were in a cautious mood, JPN225 is flat, EUROSTOXX 50 -0.3%, UK100 0.5%, US500 +0.3% and US100 +0.5%.
*Commodities – USOil at $82.85, after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they will extend voluntary output cuts. Ukraine added a new front in its war against Russia over the weekend, using drones to strike a naval vessel at a Russian oil-exporting port in the Black Sea and an oil tanker in the Kerch Strait.
*Gold – pulled back to $1935.44 below PP.

Today: July CPI and earnings out of Disney will highlight the calendar this week. Asia’s corporate earnings season picks up this week, with Alibaba the standout in a trickle from China.



Biggest Mover: (@6:30 GMT) GBPUSD holds at 1-month lows. It is approaching the resistance line of a down channel Support: 1.2620.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date 8th August 2023.

Market Update – August 8 – Risk Appetite Picked Up.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk appetite picked up,the US Dollar has been supported as Yields backed up and US futures outperformed. On the other hand, the advent of the August refunding supply left Treasuries heavy, especially in the wake of the debt warnings from the Fitch downgrade. Further erosion in recession outlooks contributed to the rally while the mix of earnings made for choppy upside action. Markets are looking ahead to this week’s US inflation report, after Fed’s Bowman suggested over the weekend that more hikes may be needed. NY Williams also left the door open for more hikes. Overnight we had seen China exports plunge again, which weighed on confidence.

*FX – USD Index is choppy and holds close to 102. EUR and GBP corrected amid weak economic data and as confidence in a soft landing for the US strengthened. EURUSD sideways at 1.10, Cable holds in the downchannel, currently at 1.2765. USDJPY extended 143.45.
*Stocks – The US30 led the way with a 1.16% surge, recovering from 3 straight declines. The US500 advanced 0.90% and the US100 was up 0.61% after 4 consecutive drops on both indexes. #BeyondMeat abandoned its hopes of becoming cash flow positive this year and cut its sales outlook, sending its shares down more than 8% in extended trading.
*Commodities – USOil has corrected from recent highs and is currently settled at $80.90.
*Gold – Ranging within $1930-$1938 area.

Today: FOMC Member Harker speech, Eli Lilly, UPS, Duke Energy earnings on tap.



Biggest Mover: (@6:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.76%) broke August lows at 0.6060. Next immediate support levels are set at 0.6050 and 0.6030.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.