Limited chance of ECB rate cut in January; BoE unlikely to act
Not much excitement is expected from the first ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings of 2013, as the majority of economists believe both central banks will remain on hold this month. Nevertheless, there are some doubts concerning ECB's action, as Mario Draghi hinted in December at a possibility of another rate reduction.
The general expectation for ECB's January monetary policy meeting is that of no change. Despite the fact that the central bank signalized its readiness to perform further rate cuts, "they know as well as everyone else in the market that we can’t carry on with such low interest rates for ever," as Steve Ruffley suggests. Other contributors point out that the OMT program has brought relief to the markets, that peripheral countries' bond yields have dropped and that "fundamentals are showing signs of stabilization in major countries like France and Germany," in the words of Richard C. Lee, and that all of these factors significantly reduce the need for a cut.
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Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-10 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2013-01-10 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision
2013-01-10 13:30 GMT | Canada. New Housing Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-10 23:50 GMT | Japan. Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Nov)
Forex News
2013-01-10 05:34 GMT | EUR/GBP flat around 0.8150 ahead of BoE/ECB
2013-01-10 05:34 GMT | Can the ECB bring clarity to the EUR/USD?
2013-01-10 05:18 GMT | NZD/JPY highest since Sept 2008 above 74.00
2013-01-10 04:52 GMT | USD/JPY rally reaching a peak - ANZ
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30661 LOW 1.30388 BID 1.30458 ASK 1.30464 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 07:55:11
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3058 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we suggest next target at 1.3073 (R2) with possibility to reach final resistance at 1.3087 (R3). Today in focus- ECB Rate decision at 12:45 GMT. Downwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term negative market sentiment would be valid. Key support lie at 1.3036 (S1), below here opens route towards to our initial targets at 1.3021 (S2) and 1.3005 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3073, 1.3087
Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.3021, 1.3005
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60269 LOW 1.6004 BID 1.60102 ASK 1.60112 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 07:55:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: BOE Interest Rate decision at 12:00 GMT might increase volatility today. Next immediate resistance is seen at 1.6036 (R1). Above that level opens a route towards to higher target at 1.6059 (R2) and any further price advance would then be targeting 1.6083 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market seems to have found a base at fresh low formed yesterday. Below here locates our next support level at 1.5992 (S1) and opens way towards to immediate supports at 1.5969 (S2) and 1.5945 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6036, 1.6059, 1.6083
Support Levels: 1.5992, 1.5969, 1.5945
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USDJPY :
HIGH 88.213 LOW 87.862 BID 88.178 ASK 88.183 CHANGE 0.35% TIME 07:55:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY having during the Asian session and found an element of resistive measures at 88.22 (R1). Clearance of this level would suggest uptrend development with possible targets at 88.36 (R2) and 88.51 (R3) Downwards scenario: A corrective phase might occur below the immediate support level at 88.00 (S1). Clearance here is required to develop a short-term bearish momentum and expose our next target at 87.85 (S2). Any further correction would then be targeting 87.70 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 88.22, 88.36, 88.51
Support Levels: 88.00, 87.85, 87.70
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC )