Euro searching for catalyst strong enough to break its range, FOMC eyed
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy setting committee began a two-day meeting, with a policy statement to be released Wednesday.According to Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH, given the proximity of the election and the fact that an open-ended asset purchase plan was announced last month (QE3 or QE+), there will be a great deal more talk than action at the FOMC meeting.
"There are two issues that market expects the Fed to discuss. The first may fall under communication, but is really more substantive", says BBH. "Currently the Fed uses a calendar date approach, now mid-2015 to guide expectations of the minimum amount of time the Fed will keep interest rates low. There has been some talk…that perhaps the Fed should provide numerical targets". The second issue addresses the amount of securities the Fed is purchasing, says BBH analyst. "The question here is whether the Fed should roll the $45 bln a month in Treasuries it is buying under Operation Twist (and selling short-end holdings) and roll them into QE3+", he explains. "This would mean buying $85 bln a month in MBS and Treasuries a month".
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-24 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales
2012-10-24 15:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Press Conference
2012-10-24 18:15 GMT | United States. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
2012-10-24 | European Monetary Union. ECB President Mario Draghi Visits Germany
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-24 05:02 GMT | EUR/USD looking ahead to EZ PMI, FOMC
2012-10-24 00:43 GMT | AUD/USD spike hits 1.0300 post-AU CPI
2012-10-23 23:23 GMT | Buy dips on gold towards a $1775 target - Nomura
2012-10-23 21:24 GMT | AUD/JPY bears protecting 82.70
EURUSD : 1.29865 / 1.29869
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3037 | 1.3013 | 1.2994
1.2971 | 1.2951 | 1.2930
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Plenty of macroeconomic data releases ahead. Today in focus ECB President Mario Draghi speech at 14:00 GMT and Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference at 18:15 GMT. Technically, instrument extended its weakening and determined negative bias on the medium term perspective. Main scenario: Risk of further depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.2971 (S1). Clearance here might put selling pressure to the pair and enable next targets at 1.2951 (S2) and 1.2930 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our next resistance level is placed above the fresh high, provided today at 1.2994 (R1). Strengthening above it would suggest higher targets at 1.3013(R2) and 1.3037 (R3).
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GBPUSD : 1.59487 / 1.59488
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5993 | 1.5975 | 1.5956
1.5931 | 1.5913 | 1.5894
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Technically, picture is negative for GBPUSD. We expect gradual market decline later on today however possibility of consolidation development is seen above our resistance levels. Main scenario: Next support level in focus at 1.5931 (S1), if it manages to break our support here we suggest next targets at 1.5913 (S2) and 1.5894 (S3). Alternative scenario: Successful attack to the next resistance level at 1.5956 (R1) might establish retracement formation with next targets at 1.5975 (R2) and 1.5993 (R3) in focus.
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USDJPY : 79.807 / 79.809
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
80.22 | 80.08 | 79.94
79.78 | 79.64 | 79.49
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Yesterday USDJPY continued its consolidation and now is settled for a move. We expect retest of our resistance level today. If it fails to establish positive bias likely we will see a correction development on the hourly timeframe. Main scenario: Next resistance at 79.94 (R1) comes ahead. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 80.08 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 80.22 (R3). Alternative scenario: Downside fluctuations remains for now limited by next support level at 79.78 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of market easing, targeting 79.64 (S2) and 79.49 (S3) in potential.
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