Case for an RBNZ rate cut mounts - BNZ
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may start to find it harder and harder to maintain its cash rate steady in the foreseeable future, according to BNZ economist Stephen Toplis. From Mr. Toplis: "A very weak PMI, followed by today’s weak PSI, intimates that Q3 GDP might print very poorly indeed. Consensus forecasts for global growth remain under pressure. The Australian economy is looking demonstrably shaky, resulting in grief for domestic manufacturers, and the RBA is easing. The NZD TWI sits stubbornly 1.4% above the RBNZ’s assumed Q4-average. And the annual CPI is about to print below the bottom edge of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range. We, thus, now put the probability of an easing as high as 35%."
The BNZ Analyt adds: "We stick with our view that rates are on hold for some time to come but warn that the downside risk should not be ignored. The market is now pricing in around an 85% chance of a cut over the coming 12 months. It’s been pricing in a reduction in rates consistently for much of the last year and we have railed against it. While we think the odds are overdone, the situation has certainly changed sufficiently for us to be much less aggressive in our dissension. For us the catalyst for an easing will be continued appreciation in the NZD accompanied by a stalling in the domestic housing market."
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-15 12:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales
2012-10-15 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
2012-10-15 19:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2012-10-15 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Consumer Price Index
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-15 04:49 GMT | GBP/USD maintains bearish tendencies
2012-10-15 04:43 GMT | EUR/USD new week, same range
2012-10-15 04:14 GMT | AUD/NZD choppy below 1.2550
2012-10-15 03:13 GMT | EUR/JPY slide supported by trendline
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EURUSD : 1.29080 / 1.29085
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2954 | 1.2937 | 1.2922
1.2890 | 1.2875 | 1.2860
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Today Instrument gained momentum on the negative side and formed correction from its initial uptrend formation. If it manages to break above the suggested resistance level we expect to see new step of uptrend development, otherwise depreciation below the support would lead to the deeper correction. Main scenario: Possible strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.2922 (R1). Next targets holds at 1.2937 (R2) and 1.2954 (R3) levels. Alternative scenario: Downside development remains for now limited by next support level at 1.2890 (S1), clear break here would be a signal of market weakening, targeting 1.2875 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.60385 / 1.60394
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6132 | 1.6096 | 1.6059
1.6024 | 1.5983 | 1.5944
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: The medium term tendency is Bearish as both moving averages are pointing down and we expect that GBPUSD remains on the negative side today. Main scenario: Decrease below the expected support at 1.6024 (S1) might push price lower and enable our targets at 1.5983 (S2) and 1.5944 (S3). Alternative scenario: Upside formation is limited by next resistance level at 1.6059 (R1). If market manage to break it, further targets locates at 1.6096 (R2) and 1.6132 (R3).
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USDJPY : 78.564 / 78.565
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.95 | 78.79 | 78.63
78.43 | 78.26 | 78.09
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Pair has settled positive bias on the hourly timeframe and fresh high, formed today is our reference point for the instrument appreciation. Main scenario: Our next resistance level for today stay at 78.63 (R1), break here would enable next targets at 78.79 (R2) and 78.95 (R3). Alternative scenario: Possible depreciation below the support level at 78.43 (S1) would suggest next targets at 78.26 (S2) and 78.09 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( What Is Forex Trading | Forex Trading Signals | ECN Forex Trading Online | FXCC )[/B]