Moody's downgrade to Spain as early as today? - NAB
After poor risk sentiment on Wednesday, immediate risk now, according to NAB analysts, "is that Moody’s may act to slash Spain’s credit rating to junk, having warned in mid-June (when it cut Spain by three notched to Baa3) that further action was likely within three months." The timing of ratings agency actions, NAB explains, "has been exquisite so don’t bet against this happening as early as today."
Busy session ahead in London with all eyes focused on Spain, though there will also be plenty of risk events coming on the way. German import prices will be released at 06:00 GMT, followed 1 hour later by Spanish retail sales, German unemployment change at 07:55 GMT, EU M3 and private loans 5 minutes later along with Italy business sentiment, and EU business climate index and sentiment data at 09:00 GMT.
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2012-09-27 07:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change
2012-09-27 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Gross Domestic Product
2012-09-27 12:30 GMT | United States. Core Durable Goods Orders
2012-09-27 14:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales
2012-09-27 04:42 GMT | GBP/USD gently bid, UK GDP ahead
2012-09-27 04:35 GMT | EUR/USD capped below 1.2890
2012-09-27 03:43 GMT | JPY tone remains positive; 78.6% Fibo supports USD/JPY
2012-09-27 03:17 GMT | USD/CAD could hit an air pocket above 0.9850 – Saxobank
EURUSD : 1.28798 / 1.28803
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2970 | 1.2935 | 1.2899
1.2860 | 1.2827 | 1.2793
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market refreshed its local lows yesterday and closed in negative territory. At the moment pair is gaining 0.16% and we expect further appreciation ahead. All our supports and resistance levels remain the same today. Main scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.2899 (R1). Penetration above it might resume market strengthening towards to the next target at 1.2935 (R2). Remaining resistance level for today locates at 1.2970 (R3). Alternative scenario: On the flip side, support levels lie at 1.2860 (S1). Break here is required to enable next targets at 1.2827 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.61854 / 1.61866
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6241 | 1.6222 | 1.6203
1.6169 | 1.6149 | 1.6130
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: The upwards momentum for the GBPUSD is likely to get acceleration towards to our next resistance level at 1.6203 (R1), exactly where the 38.2% Fibonacci level lies. Main scenario: Successful break through 1.6203 (R1) would open way for further upside formation towards to next targets at 1.6222 (R2) and 1.6241 (R3). Alternative scenario: Next support level stay at 1.6169 (S1), brake below it might provide a downside priority in direction for the remaining of the day. Next suggested targets at 1.6149 (S2) and 1.6130 (S3).
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USDJPY : 77.657 / 77.662
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.03 | 77.89 | 77.76
77.59 | 77.45 | 77.31
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit oversold zone and now is pointing up. We expect further penetration above the opening price and stabilization on the positive side later on today. Medium term bias remains neutral. Main scenario: Next resistance level lie at 77.76 (R1), rise above it would suggest next targets at 77.89 (R2) and 78.03 (R3). Alternative scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the next support level at 77.59 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial downside targets at 77.45 (S2) and 77.31 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)